Week 3 College Football Predictions

Another exciting weekend of college football is in the books, and another data point has been collected and fed into my T Shoe Index. In case you haven’t been following me on X (@TShoeIndex), I’ve been posting box score-adjusted results for each game, which is basically my proprietary formula that translates the box score into an expected result based on the key predictive stats from the game. I’d encourage you to follow me there and check those out to help contextualize what we’re seeing on the field. More on that in a minute, but for now, let’s get to my early week three bets.

Arizona State (-5.5) vs Kansas, O/U 52.5

In perhaps the most misleading final score of the weekend, Arizona State lost 48-20 to Texas A&M, but my adjusted box score says the game should’ve merely been 28-21 in favor of the Aggies. That’s a huge discrepancy for the scoreboard watchers, and a key reason I think the Sun Devils are undervalued this week against the Kansas Jayhawks, whose adjusted score was actually worse than the 38-20 loss they suffered to rival Missouri, with TSI indicating they were expected to lose 38-17. TSI is projecting Arizona State -9 here, with the on-field-only (small sample, so use with caution) grades making ASU 24 points better than Kansas so far. I love Arizona State in this spot.

Bet: Arizona State -5.5 (Play to -6.5)

LSU (-3) vs Ole Miss, O/U 58.5

The prodigal son returns. Lane Kiffin will make his much-anticipated return to Oxford as the head coach of the LSU Tigers after a loud and tumultuous exit as the Rebels’ coach. There will be plenty of emotions in this game, which we can’t quantify, so I want to stick to the data that we can. Both teams sleepwalked through last week against overmatched G6 opponents, and in week one, both had wins in games with relatively tight spreads; however, LSU’s performance against Clemson is, so far, one of the most impressive performances of the season, while Ole Miss’s win against Louisville was actually expected to be a one-point loss, per the TSI box score adjustments. TSI projects the Lane Train -11 here, as the Tigers’ adjusted scoring margin has been eight points better than what the scoreboards have reflected, while Ole Miss’s two games have been basically as expected – with the Rebels’ adjusted margin being one point higher than the actual scores. Bottom line, LSU is still a bit underrated by the market. I think both sides will be emotional here, but I think Lane will want to spitefully stick it to the Rebels here and will have LSU ready to go.

Bet: LSU -3 or better

Full Week Three Projections 

DateNeutral?HomeAwayTSI SpreadTSI Total
9/17/2026PittSyracuse11.549.5
9/18/2026Texas TechHouston9.553.5
9/18/2026Wake ForestMiami (FL)-17.551.0
9/19/2026AlabamaFlorida State16.049.5
9/19/2026Appalachian StateCharlotte12.054.0
9/19/2026ArizonaNorthern Illinois30.048.5
9/19/2026YArizona StateKansas9.052.0
9/19/2026ArkansasGeorgia-26.557.0
9/19/2026AuburnFlorida-6.550.5
9/19/2026BaylorLouisiana Tech20.056.5
9/19/2026Central MichiganWyoming0.544.0
9/19/2026YCincinnatiMiami (OH)13.548.0
9/19/2026ClemsonNorth Carolina4.046.0
9/19/2026Colorado StateBYU-25.049.0
9/19/2026DelawareCoastal Carolina6.556
9/19/2026DukeStanford9.052.5
9/19/2026FAUFIU-2.057.5
9/19/2026IndianaWestern Kentucky44.554.5
9/19/2026Iowa StateBowling Green30.044.0
9/19/2026Jacksonville StateGeorgia Southern7.553.0
9/19/2026Kansas StateTulane18.552.0
9/19/2026LibertyBall State20.051.5
9/19/2026LouisianaUAB11.057.5
9/19/2026LouisvilleSMU-1.053.0
9/19/2026MarylandVirginia Tech-3.051.0
9/19/2026MichiganUTEP38.546.0
9/19/2026Middle TennesseeNevada-8.551.5
9/19/2026MinnesotaAkron25.047.0
9/19/2026MissouriTroy27.551.0
9/19/2026Missouri StateMarshall-3.554.5
9/19/2026NorthwesternColorado6.547.0
9/19/2026Notre DameMichigan State30.052.0
9/19/2026Ohio StateKent State54.554.5
9/19/2026OklahomaNew Mexico18.046.5
9/19/2026Old DominionEast Carolina1.050.0
9/19/2026Ole MissLSU-11.052.5
9/19/2026Penn StateBuffalo36.547.5
9/19/2026RiceWestern Michigan-8.546.0
9/19/2026RutgersUSC-29.057.5
9/19/2026Sacramento StateNorth Dakota State-21.551
9/19/2026San Diego StateJames Madison0.048.0
9/19/2026San Jose StateFresno State-5.050.5
9/19/2026South AlabamaOhio3.051.0
9/19/2026South CarolinaMississippi State3.053.5
9/19/2026Southern MissU Conn-3.553.5
9/19/2026TCUArkansas State18.054.0
9/19/2026TennesseeKennesaw State31.056.5
9/19/2026TexasUTSA31.557.5
9/19/2026Texas A&MKentucky21.049.5
9/19/2026Texas StateNorth Texas0.061.5
9/19/2026ToledoTemple-0.551.0
9/19/2026UCFGeorgia State15.051.0
9/19/2026UCLAPurdue16.553.5
9/19/2026UtahUtah State27.053.0
9/19/2026VanderbiltNC State5.555.0
9/19/2026YVirginiaWest Virginia10.549.5
9/19/2026WisconsinEastern Michigan27.045.0

For more college football Week 3 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 3 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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