MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, September 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Tigers starting pitcher Jackson Jobe owns a 3.89 ERA this season and has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but appears due for regression with a 4.86 fielding independent, 1.6 home runs, and 3.4 walks per nine innings. White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke has a 3.47 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that is fourth in ERA since July 1 at 3.15.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -134 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -154 and Total 7.8
6:10 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez overall has a 5.02 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, but has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his past 12 appearances with a 3.25 ERA in this span. He faces a Guardians lineup that is 27th overall in scoring with 4.1 runs per game, while the Athletics are 28th in road scoring with just over four runs per game. That helps the cause of Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.16 ERA with a career-low 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks sixth in ERA since July 1 at 3.33.
Pick: Athletics vs. Guardians Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
6:40 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has been much improved in the second half of the season, posting a 4.89 ERA with 1.2 home runs per nine innings prior to the All-Star Break while supplying a 2.42 ERA since the All-Star Break with 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his past 11 starts and gets to face a Royals team that entered the series 28-50 on the road with a league-low 3.6 runs per game. The Royals bullpen is 28th in ERA at 4.99.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -108 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -124 and Total 7.7
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Both starting pitchers in this game have allowed at least three earned runs in four of their past five starts. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd owns a 4.16 ERA overall this season, but that drops to a 2.95 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings away from home compared to a 5.53 ERA with nearly 1.9 home runs per nine innings at home. Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo owns a 5.12 ERA, but has an even higher 5.75 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -134
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -147
8:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez has some large career home and road splits with a lifetime 2.89 ERA at home and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.73 ERA on the road with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. He has also allowed at least three runs in four straight starts. Padres starting pitcher Casey Mize has a 3.69 ERA with one home run and 2.2 walks per nine innings overall this season, but in his eight starts since being acquired by the San Diego Padres has a 5.97 ERA with 2.2 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Marlins vs. Padres Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
