NFL Odds Week 3
If you needed an example of how each week in the NFL is different, Week 2 provided exactly that. The Browns beat the Bucs, the Bears went from scoring 59 points to tallying a mere field goal, and the Ravens went from scoring 41 points to losing in a game with 41 total points. Oh, and the injuries. My goodness we had some big injuries. It makes the Opening Line Report for Week 3 a little tricky because we have some hobbled quarterbacks and some important players as we look at what the oddsmakers have posted for the next round of games.
Also, you’re going to hear a lot of teams starting 0-3 and how hard it is to make the playoffs and how those teams are desperate and all of that. While true regarding 0-3, the rest is all noise. Teams want to win every game. Don’t fall victim to the talking heads and the narratives and the conjecture. Handicap what you’ve seen, what the stats tell you, and where the number leads you.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 3 NFL Odds Report:
Falcons at Packers (-7, 44.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Just what all of us want to see – the Falcons in primetime. At least there’s a chance that Michael Penix Jr. will be back this week. We also have the angle of the Packers coming off of an overtime game on the road just to play on a short week, so you’ll hear and see trends about that. While this game looks like a dud on the surface, and may very well be one, at least there are some compelling characteristics from a betting standpoint. There are still various 6.5s on the board, but most of them have moved up to 7 in light of Atlanta’s no-show against Carolina.
Seahawks (-6.5, 41.5) at Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m ET (FOX)
Both QBs are question marks here with Seattle coming cross-country to play in the early window. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow again, the same injury that cost him four weeks of playing time last season. There was no fracture, but more tests are pending. On the Seattle side, Sam Darnold’s hip injury has his status up in the air, as he’s expected to try and give practice a go this week. Before the Daniels injury, this line was in the -2.5 range, so we’ve seen about a four-point adjustment, likely with more to come.
Bengals (-3.5, 43.5) at Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The orange and black Kool-Aid is flying off of the shelves. The Bengals are 2-0, the defense looked spectacular against the Texans, and now a good chance to start 3-0 has been presented. The Steelers looked downright awful against the Patriots. When you combine that with a Week 1 win over the hapless Falcons that was only by a touchdown, you can see why the court of public opinion is distancing itself from this Pittsburgh crew. Some shops were even dealing additional juice on the 3.5 as of Sunday night. This line was under a field goal in the lookahead market, but has rightly been adjusted.
Jets at Lions (-6.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
So far, the Jets have had two pretty good data points, beating the Titans, who gave the Eagles all they could handle in Week 2, and then taking the Packers to an extra period. The Lions came up short on the short week in Week 2, losing to the Bills, but that win over the Saints in Week 1 certainly looks better. There was a 7 at Circa on this game as of Sunday night, but the prevailing number was 6.5, albeit at a price higher than -110. Nothing was really adjusted for the spread and total here after the Week 2 results came in, except for some shops sitting at 7 flat before Sunday’s result for Gang Green.
Patriots at Jaguars (-2.5, 44.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
It looked like the Jaguars were on their way to a 2-0 start and a very nice road win in Denver, but it was not to be, as the Broncos scored the last 17 points of the game to win 20-13. Had Jacksonville finished off the victory, I would have loved to see what this line would have been. Instead, because they didn’t and because the Patriots bounced back against Pittsburgh, we’re sitting at 2.5 with juice ranging from the standard -110 to -115. That’s pretty much where we were in the lookahead markets, though the total did drop slightly in light of last week’s results.
Chiefs (-10.5, 45.5) at Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
A lot of teams are going to use the Dolphins as a punching bag this season and it is Kansas City’s turn this week. After hosting the Colts on Sunday Night Football, it is a little bit of a short week, though being ready to play Miami shouldn’t take a whole lot of preparation at this point. The biggest question at the outset of the season for KC was the health of Patrick Mahomes and everything seems fine, at least as of now. The Chiefs were laying doubles in the lookahead market and still are, even though they needed overtime to beat the Colts.
Texans (-2.5, 45.5) at Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
That 0-3 team thing I mentioned earlier? Yeah, expect to hear it here about the Texans, who have had a tough start to the season with the Bills and Bengals. A healthy Bengals bunch with a revamped defense is a force to be reckoned with, so this game does represent a step down in class for Houston traveling to Indy. The Colts, like the Chiefs in the previous game, are on that semi-short week coming off of Sunday Night Football, but this is a division game, so there’s a lot of familiarity between the two teams anyway. Houston was a road favorite of 1.5 in the lookahead market, but now is favored by 2.5, as the Colts took the Chiefs to OT, but comfortably lost in the box score.
Panthers (-3, 40.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
All of the sudden, this game got a lot more interesting. After giving up a million points and yards to the Bears, the Panthers buckled down and played a complete game against the Falcons with a 34-3 win. Now, wins against the Falcons aren’t viewed all that highly right now, but to go from giving up 59 points to giving up three points is a pretty big turnaround. Had the Browns stunk up the joint against the Bucs like they did against the Jaguars, this line would be higher than this, but Cleveland had a dramatic week-over-week turnaround to improve to 1-1. I still don’t know what kind of reaction Deshaun Watson will get at home – probably not a good one – but the Browns looked better and that was quite the sight. The lookahead number here was 2.5 and there are still some of those, but mostly 3s.
Chargers at Bills (-7, 50.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
My guess here is that one of two things will happen. Either the Bills will completely blow out the Chargers or LA will find some way to win outright. That’s just how the scriptwriters seem to plan things in this league. The Chargers will get the Texans treatment this week in the sense that they, too, are 0-2. It’s a lot different, though, having lost to the Cardinals and Raiders instead of the Bills and Bengals. Nevertheless, all the “cornered rat” and “must-win” sentiments will be out there. But, the Bills are on extra rest and the Chargers have to play an early kick and there is a reason why this line went from 4.5 in the lookahead market to the 7 we see now at most shops.
Vikings (-2.5, 43.5) at Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Baker Mayfield won’t find himself on many Christmas card lists after burning a bunch of Survivor entries in Week 2. Like the Texans and Chargers, we’ll hear the 0-2 narrative about Tampa Bay this week, but, to be honest, they have looked bad in both of those games. So much so that the Vikings are a clear road favorite here. If the game were in Minneapolis, we’d see Minnesota pushing a touchdown favorite with probably Carson Wentz at QB. Not sure anybody saw that coming, but here we are, and the Bucs look bad. This line was adjusted pretty significantly, so much so that it is a flipped favorite role from the lookahead market where the Bucs were -1.5.
Cardinals at 49ers (-8.5, 48.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Turns out that the Cardinals aren’t quite the layup that most thought they would be, but they’re still an uncontested jumper from the elbow at best. The 49ers surely won’t complain, given that they just got done moving to 2-0 with a win over the Dolphins. They are heavily favored to move to 3-0 and they have a head-to-head win over the Rams, so that should be a rallying point here to not overlook Arizona. The total moved up about a point, but the spread is about where it was on the lookahead line.
Ravens (-3, 51.5) vs. Cowboys (Brazil)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
As of now, this game is slated to be played in Brazil, but there have been some reports about the quality of the playing surface. We’ll see if Roger Goodell sends the teams down there anyway. Regardless of where the game is played, it’s a pretty pivotal game for both teams with 1-1 records. The lookahead number here was Ravens -3 and hasn’t really moved, though the books have added a little bit of a tax in the form of increased vig on +3 with the Cowboys.
Raiders at Saints (-3, 44)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Saints and Raiders both picked up impressive wins in underdog roles in Week 2. New Orleans can say more about their victory because the Ravens didn’t lose to the Cardinals in Week 1, but still. These two teams are ahead of where they were projected to be, especially the 2-0 Raiders. Depending on the sportsbook and their expectation of how this line will play out, it is either Saints -3 or Saints -3.5 at reduced juice. We also saw the total on this game move down with pretty good defensive efforts out of both teams. Not much movement on the spread, as the two upset wins seemed to cancel each other out.
Eagles (-4.5, 43.5) at Bears
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
Obviously this line is in a holding pattern at most shops with the health of Caleb Williams. Williams left with a hamstring injury and the Bears were inept offensively with and without him in the loss to the Vikings. DraftKings is taking a more negative approach towards Williams’ availability with this line at -4.5. From a lookahead standpoint, with the expectation of a healthy Williams, the Bears were actually -1.5 favorites. We’ll have to watch the news cycle to see how this one plays out.
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