Week 5 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 5 College Football

It is wild to think about, but as we head into Week 5 college football, teams that haven’t had a bye week yet have already played a third of their regular seasons. Most teams play 12 games – a handful play 13 – so four games means a pretty big chunk of the season. Given that there is no training camp or really any chance to gel with all the new faces, the early part of the season can be a highly volatile environment.

And, as we all know, we’ve certainly seen that thus far for the non-elite teams. And some of the teams that we thought would be elite, or close to it, are not. Admittedly, when it comes to updating college football power ratings, it does make it a bit difficult to see performances at both ends of the spectrum. The teams in the middle and the teams that are bad, but not terrible, are the most guilty of this thus far. Unfortunately, those are the teams that I try to focus on the most, since the highly-publicized, more scrutinized teams typically don’t yield as much value.

To add another wrinkle, we’re at the point where some teams are changing quarterbacks in hopes of catching a spark. The margin for error is so small these days with the transitional period of getting used to playing with everybody coupled with what’s at stake. It worked for Texas Tech and Colorado, as the Red Raiders made an in-game change and the Buffaloes made a pregame change. It also worked for Army and Air Force, as they lost, but looked much better on offense. Western Michigan also stopped the two-quarterback rotation and upset Toledo.

So, those are things you want to follow as well and just scanning final scores isn’t enough. While it hardly guarantees future success to make a QB change, it does add another element of uncertainty that we have to either grade right away or grade after accumulating another data point or two.

It makes for a busy Sunday morning of recapping the Saturday that was and trying to plan ahead for the next round of games.

Week 5 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	90	3.5
2	Penn State	90	3.5
3	Georgia	89	3
4	Oregon	89	3.5
5	Alabama	87	3.5
6	Miami (Florida)	86.5	2
7	LSU	84.5	3.5
8	Texas A&M	84	2
9	Texas	83.5	3.5
10	Missouri	83	3.5
11	USC	83	3
12	Indiana	82.5	2.5
13	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
14	Texas Tech	82.5	3
15	Oklahoma	82	3
16	Notre Dame	81	3
17	Michigan	80.5	3
18	Mississippi	80.5	3
19	Utah	80.5	3
20	Auburn	79.5	2
21	TCU	79.5	3
22	Florida	79	2
23	Florida State	78.5	2
24	Arizona State	78	2
25	Vanderbilt	78	1.5
26	Baylor	76.5	2
27	Iowa	76.5	3
28	Louisville	76	3.5
29	Georgia Tech	75.5	2
30	Kansas	75.5	2.5
31	Nebraska	75	2
32	Illinois	74.5	2
33	Washington	74.5	3.5
34	Arkansas	74	2
35	BYU	74	2
36	Clemson	74	2.5
37	Iowa State	74	2
38	SMU	74	3.5
39	South Carolina	74	2.5
40	Minnesota	73	2
41	Mississippi State	73	2
42	Houston	70.5	2
43	South Florida	70	1.5
44	Boise State	69	3.5
45	Cincinnati	69	1.5
46	Duke	69	3.5
47	Kentucky	69	2
48	Virginia	69	2
49	Rutgers	68.5	2
50	Wisconsin	68.5	2
51	Michigan State	68	2
52	North Carolina State	68	2
53	Tulane	68	2.5
54	Colorado	67.5	2
55	Navy	67	2
56	Pittsburgh	67	2
57	Arizona	66.5	2
58	California	66.5	2
59	UCF	66.5	2
60	Memphis	65.5	2.5
61	Boston College	65	2
62	James Madison	65	3
63	Kansas State	65	3.5
64	Ohio	64.5	3.5
65	Texas State	64.5	2
66	Maryland	64	2
67	Virginia Tech	64	2
68	West Virginia	63.5	2
69	East Carolina	63	2
70	North Texas	63	2
71	Fresno State	62	2
72	Old Dominion	61.5	1.5
73	Northwestern	61	1.5
74	UNLV	61	2.5
75	Toledo	60.5	3
76	Army	60	2.5
77	Syracuse	60	2.5
78	North Carolina	59	2
79	Utah State	59	2
80	UTSA	58.5	3.5
81	Air Force	58	2
82	Purdue	58	1
83	Oregon State	57	3.5
84	Wake Forest	57	2
85	Hawai’i	56.5	2
86	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
87	Rice	56.5	3
88	San Jose State	56.5	2.5
89	South Alabama	56.5	2
90	Miami (Ohio)	56	2.5
91	Oklahoma State	56	2
92	UCLA	56	2
93	Connecticut	55.5	2.5
94	Georgia Southern	55.5	3.5
95	Western Kentucky	55.5	2.5
96	Jacksonville State	54.5	3.5
97	Bowling Green	54	2
98	Southern Mississippi	54	2
99	Appalachian State	53.5	2
100	Colorado State	53.5	2
101	San Diego State	53.5	2
102	Stanford	53	1
103	Temple	52.5	2
104	Tulsa	52.5	1
105	Wyoming	52.5	2
106	Arkansas State	52	2
107	Northern Illinois	52	1
108	Buffalo	51.5	2
109	Central Michigan	51.5	2
110	New Mexico	51.5	2
111	Troy	51.5	3
112	Florida International	51	2
113	Delaware	50.5	3
114	Liberty	50	3
115	UTEP	50	2
116	Washington State	50	3
117	Louisiana-Lafayette	49.5	2
118	Louisiana-Monroe	49.5	2
119	Florida Atlantic	49	2
120	Western Michigan	49	2
121	Missouri State	48.5	2
122	Georgia State	48	1
123	Marshall	48	3
124	Coastal Carolina	47.5	2
125	UAB	47.5	2.5
126	Kennesaw State	47	1.5
127	Nevada	47	1
128	Eastern Michigan	46.5	2
129	New Mexico State	45.5	2.5
130	Charlotte	45	1
131	Sam Houston State	43	0.5
132	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
133	Akron	41	2
134	Massachusetts	39.5	1
135	Kent State	39	1
136	Ball State	38	2.5

Here are my Week 5 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Rice +3.5, Tulsa +3.5, Iowa +1.5, North Texas +2, TCU +2.5, Eastern Michigan +2, UCF +2.5, Miami (OH) +1, BYU +2, Indiana +2.5, Florida State +1, Texas Tech +3.5, Kansas +1.5, Baylor +1.5, USC +2, Memphis +1, Purdue +1, Mississippi State +2.5, Hawaii +2.5, Kennesaw State +3, Delaware +3.5, Boise State +1.5, Sam Houston +1, UTEP +2.5, San Diego State +3.5, Kent State +1.5, Vanderbilt +1.5, James Madison +1, Virginia +2, Utah State +1.5, Colorado +1.5, Army +2, Bowling Green +2, Alabama +2

Down: Charlotte -2.5, Oklahoma State -3.5, Rutgers -1.5, SMU -1.5, Louisiana -4.5, North Carolina -3.5, Clemson -3.5, Illinois -3.5, Toledo -2.5, UTSA -4, Wyoming -2.5, Utah -1.5, Arkansas -3, Notre Dame -1, Liberty -2.5, Western Kentucky -2, Washington State -2, Texas -1, UL Monroe -1.5, Cal -3.5, Oklahoma -2, Tulane -1.5, Temple -1.5, Syracuse -3 (Angeli), UConn -2, Buffalo -2, Arizona State -1.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Texas Tech +3.5: Statement performance from the Red Raiders in SLC, but also, is Will Hammond better than Behren Morton? Joey Mcguire may have a QB controversy on his hands now.

San Diego State +3.5: I wound up getting too low on the Aztecs. My biggest overlay last week was Cal vs. San Diego State and the Aztecs rolled in a shutout win.

Rice +3.5: Scott Abell’s offense has taken hold quickly. A really good, very impressive win over Charlotte.

Delaware +3.5: The Blue Hens have been very impressive to this point. They’re far better offensively than I expected and had a strong defensive effort against FIU.

Tulsa +3.5: The Friday night game was probably more of an indictment on Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy’s extremely hot seat, but still. That’s an enormous win for a Tulsa program that won three games last season. Tre Lamb has really injected a lot of positivity into that program.

Kennesaw State +3: I really expected the Owls to be quite poor this season after everything that happened last year with Brian Bohanon’s dismissal and the portal exodus. But, the close loss at Wake Forest and what was a more convincing win than the 28-21 score would suggest over Arkansas State have been impressive.

Louisiana -4.5: The Ragin’ Cajuns have almost always found good QB play, but they don’t have it this season and it’s going to be a very long year for Michael Desormeaux.

UTSA -4: Well, I gave up. UTSA probably deserved the cover, as they gave up what could’ve been a game-tying TD with under 30 seconds left if Colorado State had kicked the PAT. They went for 2 and lost the game. But, I’ve given up on the Roadrunners now.

North Carolina -3.5: Had a few good calls, had a few bad calls last week. UNC and UCF was absolutely not a good call. The Tar Heels look terrible. The Bill Belichick experiment is not working.

Clemson -3.5: Pretty self-explanatory here.

Illinois -3.5: This is your annual cautionary tale to not overreact to “returning production”. A lot of people were guilty of it and I, too, had Illinois ranked too high, even if just to keep up with everybody else. But, this was not a top-10-caliber team. And Indiana, with virtually no returning production on offense, completely pummeled the Illini.

Oklahoma State -3.5: Pretty self-explanatory here.

Cal -3.5: Market correction. I got too excited about Cal’s early-season accomplishments and, as mentioned above, had that huge (incorrect) overlay against SDSU.

Syracuse -3: Made a three-point adjustment for the Steve Angeli injury. Might be enough. Might not be enough. A brutal end to a good day for the Syracuse program.

My Week 5 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/25	Army	East Carolina	-5
9/26	Florida State	Virginia	+7.5
	TCU	Arizona State	-0.5
	Houston	Oregon State	+10
9/27	Bowling Green	Ohio	-14
	Georgia Southern	James Madison	-12.5
	Akron	Toledo	-22.5
	Utah	West Virginia	+15
	Liberty	Old Dominion	-13
	Memphis	FAU	+14.5
	San Diego State	Northern Illinois	+0.5
	Notre Dame	Arkansas	+5
	Cal	Boston College	-0.5
	UConn	Buffalo	+2
	Virginia Tech	NC State	-6
	Indiana	Iowa	+3
	Louisville	Pitt	+7
	Duke	Syracuse	+6.5
	Georgia Tech	Wake Forest	+16.5
	Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	-7
	UCLA	Northwestern	-6.5
	Rutgers	Minnesota	-6.5
	Utah State	Vanderbilt	-20.5
	Hawaii	Air Force	-3.5
	App State	Boise State	-13
	New Mexico State	New Mexico	-8
	San Jose State	Stanford	+2.5
	Jacksonville State	Southern Miss	-1.5
	Cincinnati	Kansas	-9
	Arizona	Iowa State	-9.5
	Rice	Navy	-12.5
	Tennessee	Mississippi State	+7.5
	Baylor	Oklahoma State	+18.5
	Kentucky	South Carolina	-7.5
	South Alabama	North Texas	-8.5
	UCF	Kansas State	-2
	LSU	Mississippi	+1
	Tulane	Tulsa	+14.5
	Marshall	Louisiana	-3.5
	USC	Illinois	+6.5
	Arkansas State	UL Monroe	+0.5
	UMass	Missouri	-47
	Auburn	Texas A&M	-6.5
	MTSU	Kennesaw State	-7
	Western Kentucky	Missouri State	+5
	Washington State	Colorado State	-5.5
	Oregon	Penn State	-4.5
	Alabama	Georgia	-5
	Louisiana Tech	UTEP	+4.5
	Ohio State	Washington	+12
	BYU	Colorado	+4.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Utah -10.5 (-15) at West Virginia: Weird trip, mid-afternoon kick in Morgantown, but I think Texas Tech might just be extremely good. This is a West Virginia team that lost at Ohio, got destroyed by Kansas, and beat a Pitt team in between that might not be very good. Maybe Utah lays one on ‘em here.

Northern Illinois +3 (+0.5) vs. San Diego State: Very, very weird trip for San Diego State to head to DeKalb here. NIU’s defense is legitimately good. The offense, well, not so much.

Cal +6.5 (+0.5) at Boston College: I have heavily downgraded Boston College this season, due in large part to the fact that Tommy Castellanos looks like a completely different player with Florida State and I think Bill O’Brien might be a very bad coach. Long trip for Cal, but at least they haven’t had bad travel to this point. Also, that 34-0 loss to SDSU was a little misleading.

Cal was essentially -5 in turnovers (3 TO, 2 TOD), gave up two defensive TDs, and had two red zone turnovers, including a 97-yard pick six.

Iowa +7 (+3) vs. Indiana: Yeah, Indiana looks great so far, but Iowa still has a strong defense. I think this is a big measuring stick game for the Hoosiers.

New Mexico State +14 (+8) vs. New Mexico: I think New Mexico is inflated from the UCLA win. I guess the last data point for the Aggies was brutal, but they did beat a Tulsa team that just beat Oklahoma State.

UCF +6 (+2.5) at Kansas State: Kansas State was a big adjustment down for me last week. Let’s see if I was right. Also, by bumping UCF 2.5 points this week, I went from +5 to +2.5, so I was much closer to market prior to that.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.