Week 5 College Football Predictions
I hope you’re getting your house chores and yard work out of the way throughout the week, because Saturday’s college football slate is going to be phenomenal and well worth spending 12+ hours on the couch. Some monstrous matchups will shape the conference title races and the CFP race, including LSU vs. Ole Miss, Alabama vs. Georgia, Ohio State vs. Washington, and Oregon vs. Penn State. I’m looking forward to it, but more importantly, I’m looking forward to cashing some bets, so let’s see where the T Shoe Index indicates there’s early week value for us on this Monday morning.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
San Diego State (-3) vs. Northern Illinois, O/U 43
I love this early-to-middle time of the season because I think it’s when TSI really can identify advantages in the betting market for teams that the market is slow to adjust to, one way or another. As is the case here, where San Diego State is laying just three points against an NIU team that only beat FCS Holy Cross by two before losing to Maryland and Mississippi State, putting them at just 1-2 ATS. The Aztecs have already pitched two shutouts, including last week against Cal, beating them 34-0 in impressive fashion. TSI projects SDSU -9 using my official blended formula of preseason priors + on-field performance. Removing the priors would result in SDSU being projected as a 17-point favorite here, so I’ll gladly lay three.
College Football Pick: San Diego State -3
LSU vs. Ole Miss (-2.5), O/U 55.5
One trend I took away from last week in my enormous betting spreadsheet with a million numbers on it is that, when my market estimation formula differs from the official TSI number and the on-field formula number, those plays were 15-5 on sides and totals. This game fits that trend in two ways. TSI projects Ole Miss -4.5 with a total of 52; additionally, the on-field numbers project Ole Miss -9.5 with a total of 41. Both formulas align on the other side of the market estimation, which is Ole Miss -2 with a total of 56. To summarize, the market hasn’t caught up to how much lower scoring these teams are than expected and how much better Ole Miss has been than LSU, who is still getting a lot of credit for beating a bad Clemson team in Week 1 and a bad Florida team two weeks ago. Against P4 teams, LSU has only averaged 18.5 points per game and only allowed 10 per game; meanwhile, Ole Miss just destroyed Tulane (who’s basically a power team) by 35, beat Arkansas by a touchdown at home and beat Kentucky on the road by a touchdown. I’m riding the Lane Train this weekend.
College Football Pick: Ole Miss -2.5; Under 55.5
For more Week 5 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 5 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
