Week 6 best bets for Ball State vs. Eastern Michigan, Colorado vs. Arizona State
Week 6 of the college football season serves as the midpoint for some teams, as they’ll play the sixth game of a 12-game schedule. Nearly every game is a conference game, so there will be a lot more familiarity between opponents and generally more common ground in terms of talent and skill levels, especially in the Group of Five ranks. This is the time of year when teams start honing in more on their goals of division and conference championships, along with doing what it takes to get to a bowl game.
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It is a little bit different handicapping these games relative to non-conference games for a variety of reasons. In some respects, it can feel a little bit easier, especially if series history is an important tool for you. Keep in mind that a lot of teams have changed a lot thanks to the transfer portal and the NIL, though, so what you saw in the past may not exactly be what you see now.
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Here are my favorite picks for Week 6:
(odds as of October 5 , 11:15 a.m. PT)
Ball State Cardinals at Eastern Michigan Eagles (-2.5, 43)
Ball State was a team that seemed to get a little love in the MAC West coming into the season, but the Cardinals are off to a slow start. They are 1-4 on the season and got trounced last week by Western Michigan. That being said, the Cardinals have played a brutal schedule by MAC standards thus far. Their slate of opponents ranks 47th per Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule calculations.
Eastern Michigan’s schedule ranks 147th and the Eagles are just 2-3 with wins over Howard and UMass. They’ve also been shut out by Jacksonville State and were not as competitive as the 26-23 score would indicate last week against rival Central Michigan. The Eagles had 5.33 yards per play, while the Chippewas had 7.75. Central Michigan just couldn’t get off the field on third down to get the ball back enough.
I think Eastern Michigan is very bad and Ball State is a little bit undervalued based on the schedule that they’ve played. Western Michigan was one of the biggest movers up in my Week 6 Power Ratings, so I think the Cardinals just caught them at the wrong time. They’re catching EMU at a good time off a rivalry loss. Would sprinkle the moneyline here as well with a 70/30 position, using 30% of what you’d normally bet on the ML and 70% on the spread.
Pick: Ball State +2.5 (would play to PK)
Colorado State Rams (-3, 65.5) at Utah State Aggies
I think Colorado State is emerging as a very good Group of Five team and we’re not going to get many bargain prices on them going forward. Maybe “bargain” isn’t the right word for this one, but the Rams overcame a horrible spot against Middle Tennessee to win that game with a lot of money coming in against them. They beat Utah Tech last week, but it was a good chance for a young team to take a deep breath.
Now they’re playing their first conference game of the season against Utah State. The Aggies went back to Cooper Legas last week after freshman QB McCae Hillstrand was concussed. Legas actually played extremely well in relief, but the Aggies defense gave up 473 yards and 33 points to UConn, who may very well have won the game by going for two on their last-minute touchdown instead of having the game-tying PAT blocked.
I think Colorado State is the better team and Utah State has a very suspect pass defense, which plays well for Jay Norvell’s Air Raid and QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who has some good players at wide receiver and is maturing well at the position.
Pick: Colorado State -3 (would play at -3 or lower)
Colorado Buffaloes (-4.5, 60) at Arizona State Sun Devils
It should be a raucous environment in Tempe for this one, as the Sun Devil faithful have a good chance to partake in some young adult beverages before the 3:30 p.m. local time kickoff. Shedeur Sanders is still playing his tail off for Colorado, but the Buffaloes have so many problems on defense that are impossible to overlook. I think the market is asleep on this game because Arizona State had cluster injuries at the QB position that worked themselves out and I don’t think those have been accounted for with this line.
I have this game closer to a pick ‘em, as Trenton Bourguet came back and actually played really well for ASU last week. They were the better team against Cal, but came up on the short end of a 24-21 decision. The Sun Devils had nearly six yards per play and held Cal to 4.3 YPP, but the Golden Bears were 7/18 on third down and Arizona State was 2/15, so that was the game right there.
I would expect Arizona State to keep up a similar offensive pace against a Colorado crew that ranks 108th in the nation in third down defense. It is a big difference from a Cal defense that ranks in the top 25 in that department. Arizona State only has one win and it came against a FCS opponent, but they were within a score of USC in the fourth quarter and could very easily have won that Cal game.
Everybody’s going to give Colorado their best shot now and the Buffaloes are lacking depth with all the transfers in and out and couldn’t stop a mere trickle of water on defense. I think this line is just on the high side and ASU has not been properly adjusted having their QBs back.
Pick: Arizona State +4.5 (would play to +3.5)
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