Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Saturday, October 10 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Luster (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. Luster
2. Lookin At Diamond
3. Faithful Departed
Tried to muster an opinion against LUSTER, who I think will get bet considerably lower than her published odds. There are worthy challengers, for sure, but Luster might really be special! If it were just the King’s Plate form and assorted other Tapeta races at Woodbine, I’d definitely be against her, but both of her grass races were excellent, too. Off a nice freshening into this, and with a win over the course, I don’t see why she doesn’t run her race. Inside draw could slightly complicate matters, but I could see J Velazquez working to the outside and getting a good pressing or stalking trip behind Kensington Lane. LOOKIN AT DIAMOND probably offers the best value – I just question whether she can beat Luster even with a best-case scenario. The debut sprint clearly was too short – she finished strongly and galloped out very well. I didn’t care for the ride in her definitive maiden win, and the Honeymoon was worse. Scratched from a stake earlier in the summer, but what was wrong with her Del Mar Oaks? Slow pace, Tam Tam got a perfect trip, and it was LAD doing much the best work at the finish. FAITHFUL DEPARTED had bad trips in both her very good Saratoga races, and she probably benefits from a freshening, though that was unintentional, a brief fever costing her a start in the Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Saturday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
First Race
1. Unlimited Gold
2. Lost Chord
3. Motown Sound
UNLIMITED GOLD has worked at Keeneland before, and wish we had even one breeze video just to see how the horse got over dirt. That’s what his chances come down to – he’s hit peak form this cycle on turf, but all 10 of his starts have come on grass or synthetic. I think he can adequately make the transition and would much rather ally myself with UG at something like the listed 3-1 than with LOST CHORD as an odds-on favorite. Lost Chord at base probably doesn’t want to run this far, and while the class drop could mean everything, that was a soft, short group of $50K maidens he beat in his lone win. MOTOWN SOUND seems to have found himself his last two starts, and while he looks “too slow,” he really might not be.
Second Race
1. Dolly P
2. Kefka
3. R Ruth of My Life
Call it a guessing game, or call it a Festival of 2yo Droppers – either fits. DOLLY P, a $100K purchase, got one look at the MSW level and, despite a decent performance in an IND turf route (winner returned to capture the Jessamine at KEE!), she gets the quick hook to $30K maiden-claiming. Think she probably ran the best race among those that’ve started, and the long one-turn trip could suit. She’s well drawn outside to avoid kickback that might compromise her. KEFKA, on the other end of the spectrum from a horse like $500K sales purchase Maple Ridge, cost a pittance, $3,500, and connections’ choice to run her in a KEE $30K maiden feels positive, not negative. Got in useful debut run over shorter. Figures to show speed. We’ll see how far it sticks. R RUTH OF MY LIFE had a tough trip facing straight maidens at Kentucky Downs, but breaking from the rail facing a full field over the Beard Course could lead to another difficult journey.
Third Race
1. Battlefield Hero
2. Merlin Monroan
3. Admiral’s Order
As How’s Al Today sailed clear on the outside – and then came back later in the KD meet to romp in an open stakes race — BATTLEFIELD HERO had to work his way between horses and finish up the inside – good run for second, almost three lengths clear of third. Okay, so, 5 1/2 first out, 6 1/2 furlong second out – is the horse just a sprinter who’ll struggle at this route distance? Probably not! War Front’s more a route sire, the dam won a nine-furlong stakes race in France, and her offspring generally have wanted to run long. This colt’s full brother Police Gazette came over from Ireland and was a solid third Sept. 6 going 1 1/2 miles at Kentucky Downs. Listed odds would be more than fair – but may be lower. Not going to get into all the jockeyology here that I don’t understand, but MERLIN MONROAN, who has a new rider, really caught the eye winning on debut at Kentucky Downs. The stretch to two-turns should be no issue, but, as always, there’s the question of KD form carrying over to a standard racing oval. ADMIRAL’S ORDER got a graded-stakes look on dirt last out but probably meant all along as a grass horse. In his decent KD sprint on Aug. 29, he had the look of a horse who’d prefer more ground.
Fourth Race
1. Dance Some Mo
2. Overstatement
3. Morunning
DANCE SOME MO hasn’t raced for a claiming tag in since October 2024, when he ran for this same price at KEE, going 7 furlongs 184 feet and finishing second to Banishing, who shortly thereafter turned into a triple-digit Beyer machine. Moreover, these connections made a great claim here, paying just $30K for Dance Some Mo in April 2024. In other words, the drop to a tag here need not be seen as a negative. I look at the CNL comeback run last out as a prep for this start, and with speed upon speed entered here, DSM gets the setup. OVERSTATEMENT went through a form trough in June and July but think he’s on the upswing again. Has the right style for the way this race shapes out on paper, and his better dirt tries hit a high enough mark to put him in the mix. Can’t see him being as high as the morning line’s 30-1, however. MORUNNING would be tough in a vacuum – the race isn’t run in a vacuum. Aggressive jockey has to use his speed from the inside, but Otello, Gilded Cracken, even Alder are going forward, too.
Fifth Race
1. Free Verse
2. Follow Your Heart
3. Global Unrest
FREE VERSE not only was a turf route horse (probably – we are about to find out) debuting in a dirt sprint, she ran into a standout winner (who, admittedly, did not validate that her maiden win racing in the Frizette) at Saratoga. First work back from her race – turf, then two more grass breezes before leaving for Kentucky. Work video for one of those turf drills – thumbs up. The dam was a G1 winner over 1 1/16 miles on turf, and has produced turf stakes horses Wadsworth and Chapman’s Peak, both trained– like this horse — by B Cox. FOLLOW YOUR HEART ran into one of the favorites for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint on debut, and beat everyone in the race save her. That was a sprint, too, and she’s meant to be a route horse. The problem is that if the filly draws into the race from the also-eligible list, she’ll be saddled with a very bad wide post. The numbers are stark: Trainer C Brown over the last five years has gone 24-0-2-3 with first-timers debuting in Kentucky turf-route MSWs. That said, Brown had another concerning stat that he completely obliterated on opening day, and from the look of work video, GLOBAL UNREST and her breeze partner, who debuts in R7, Correlated Risk, might be of higher quality than Brown’s standard Kentucky maidens.
Sixth Race
1. Braverthanubelieve
2. Where Luck Lives
3. Carmel Coast
BRAVERTHANUBELIEVE will have to run “faster” (using the Beyers as a reference) to beat the shorter prices in this tough allowance race – but why can’t she? Sept. 2 win in the NY-bred N2X allowance not only made her 3-3 but came after a nine-month layoff. If she makes the sort of improvement here like she did from her first two second starts, she’s in the hunt. A little awkward from an inside post in the SAR win, but think that came when the rider was trying to steer out of a tight spot. I mention it because Braver 100% can’t win going to the lead – there’s just too much pace drawn outside her. She’ll have to prove willing to sit behind and finish – which she did, albeit with a clean trip — in her stakes score. WHERE LUCK LIVES was going to be in tough regardless, trying the G1 Test off a 10-week break, and she was totally thrown off her game by a terrible start. Has regrouped, and her win over the very high-level sprinter Movie Night racing this past spring at KEE stamps her as the most likely of the pace players to stick around. CARMEL COAST on her day hits a pretty high mark, too, and, FWIW, is back with Lasix again here. Looks like she’ll either pull the dreaded “between” trip or wind up going too fast in the early stages.
Seventh Race
1. Flashy
2. Rumana
3. Tannhauser
Ultra-super small sample size alert – data set of 1 – but Rusty Arnold did train FLASHY’s full sister to win her career debut in a turf route. One work video up for Flashy – first thought was “she’s pretty skinny,” but as I got a broader view of the filly, skinny looked more like lanky and “route-y,” and I thought even breezing on dirt she looked something like a runner. That said, this race looks like it might be loaded. RUMANA is a sister to Touch of Fire, a runaway debut winner going a turf route for the same trainer. TANNHAUSER is by a sire with a published $15K stud fee and fetched $550K at a 2yo auction earlier this year, which says something about the way she moved. I could go on – a wealth of plausible winners.
Eighth Race
1. Steeze
2. Bold Strength
3. Prince of Power
4yo STEEZE has greater upside than many in this race, especially making his second start back from a long layoff. Finished decently last out at Ellis in a race that should move him forward into this: winner came back to score at KEE with a 97 Beyer, and runner-up exited a decent third in the Iowa Sprint Stakes. They got him out to 1 1/16 miles twice last form cycle – and learned that something like this 7f 184 feet is a better fit. Been working over the track. Favorable trip at a fair price looms. I can’t have BOLD STRENGTH on top as the favorite. He’s had too many chances to step forward – and has never really done so. Should have come closer to the horse who beat him last out at CD. Could be in for a tricky trip. PRINCE OF POWER could be in for a favorable trip with a better break than last out. Drops from the Ack Ack and a solid run in the $1 million CT Classic. Is he 15-1 here?
Tenth Race
1. Elusive Ring
2. Only Me
3. Big Life
Debuting ELUSIVE RING has a work pattern and workout times that catch the eye – and we also have one workout video to pair with the far less useful stuff on paper. That was her most recent drill, Oct 3. The filly at least breezes in blinkers – expect she races in them too. She’s a robust specimen who appears to possess speed and talent. ONLY ME didn’t really reach contention but did debut this past April in the best 3yo filly maiden race of the KEE meet. Don’t think she ran in an especially strong KD maiden, but A) she almost won, and B) she very well might be a dirt horse. BIG LIFE also has looked, I thought, plausibly talented in work video. The barn has been going great guns.
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