NFL Odds Week 6
We’ll see 28 of the league’s 32 teams on the field in Week 6, as the Bengals, Lions, Dolphins, and Vikings all enjoy the one week off of the regular season. There are quite a few big spreads on the board this week, as we only have six road favorites across the 14 games, including one on Thursday Night Football.
As the weekend gets closer, we’ll have to see how many games will be impacted by weather. There were several of them last week and Mother Nature definitely forced some teams into some suboptimal spots. It is that time of year and you have to think about that as the week goes along and the market matures. For now, we’re just looking at adjustments off of the lookahead lines and early sharp action.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 6 NFL Odds Report:
Seahawks (-3, 41) at Broncos
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Let’s keep a really close eye on this line. There are a lot of situational elements lined up against the Seahawks, who are playing on a short week with travel to elevation after playing a division rival. The reigning Super Bowl champs have also played four pretty close games out of five thus far, losing by a field goal last week to the 49ers. Denver is off of a division rivalry game, but they won and are back at home this week after two road games. The market was pretty split between 2.5 and 3 with varying juice as of Monday evening, an adjustment from Seahawks -1.5 on the lookahead number.
Texans “at” Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5) (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
The “at” is actually pretty accurate here, as the Jaguars are playing their second straight week in London. The venue shifts from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to Wembley Stadium, but Jacksonville doesn’t have to worry about the travel across the pond here. Houston does, but this line is pretty short given how these two teams have performed thus far. Prior to this past weekend’s results, including Jacksonville’s last-second game-winning field goal to beat the Eagles, this line was Jaguars -3. Some places still have that, but most are dug in with the extra juice on 2.5. Jacksonville is 2-0 SU playing a second straight week in London, which happened in 2023 and 2024.
Jets at Patriots (-7, 43.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
AFC East rivals come together here, as both teams enter off of victories. New England’s win over Las Vegas was way more impressive than New York’s opportunistic win over Cleveland. But, with wins for both teams, we didn’t really see any adjustments off the lookahead line. Some of the 7.5s have gone away at some shops, but those were mostly replaced by 7s with extra vig. We haven’t seen much movement on this spread or total, but the line is still young.
Steelers (-3, 39.5) at Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Steelers are laying a road number here against Jalon Daniels and the Bucs. Even though the rookie QB was victorious on TNF against the Cowboys, wily vet Aaron Rodgers takes his team to the Sunshine State laying a short price. Both DraftKings and Circa had 3s as of Monday evening with even money at Circa and nearly even money at DK. Most of the books were showing 40.5 on the total, while Circa was holding steady at 39.5.
Ravens (-4.5, 41.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
A rare AFC North rivalry game on FOX here, as the Ravens head to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Cleveland literally threw away last week’s game in bad weather against the Jets, but they have the chance to bounce back in this one. The status of Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is still up in the air. He didn’t play last week and we saw the market come in pretty strongly against Tyler Huntley. There hasn’t been any concrete word on Jackson thus far, but that’ll come Wednesday and Thursday from the post-practice reports. The lookahead line here was actually Baltimore -2.5, so it seems like there’s some optimism that Jackson will go. Either that or losing to the Jets hurt Cleveland’s standing in the market.
Bears (-3, 49.5) at Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Well, our long national nightmare is over, as the Falcons will not play in primetime for the first week since Week 2. Honestly, though, it wasn’t that bad, as the team looked way different with Michael Penix Jr. in the lineup, as the Falcons scored 16 points in their first two games and then 80 over the next two. They did lose by a touchdown at home to the Ravens this past week and that loss, coupled with Chicago’s blowout loss at the hands of the Packers, threw some cold water on both of these teams. The Bears are still road favorites of 3 and extra juice or 3.5 with reduced juice. The line was Bears -1.5 on the lookahead, but Penix’s rib injury altered the line a bit.
Titans at Colts (-7, 44)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
With the Texans and Jaguars in a division game across the pond, the Titans head indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Colts. Every team in the NFC has at least one win, but the Titans, Chargers, and Dolphins are all winless in the AFC. Based on this line, Tennessee will stay that way this week. It’s a pretty big number here for the Colts, who are just 2-3 and have given up a lot of points so far this season. On the other hand, the Titans have scored 58 points in five games. This total is still 44 or 44.5, but I think we could see that dip. Indy was -6.5 on the lookahead line.
Panthers at Eagles (-1, 41.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
What a weird situation this is. The Panthers, who did not play in London last week, are off of a bye, while the Eagles, who did play in London, are right back at it. Market perception of Philly has been dropping pretty much week after week and we see that here with the line implying that Carolina would be a favorite on a neutral field. Circa was holding -1 and most of the market was -1.5, as the Eagles were predominantly -2.5 before the London result came in. We’ve also seen this total drop about 1.5 points market-wide.
Saints (-1, 45.5) at Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Saints were only a road favorite once last season, a 34-26 win over the Titans in Week 17. They were road chalk twice in 2024, including the 14-11 win over the Giants in Week 14. They are the slimmest of road favorites here per Circa, with other shops showing 1.5. The lookahead number was primarily Saints -1.5, but we did see the Giants at -1.5 on Sunday night before the line flipped back the other way. I can’t imagine we’ve seen too many 1-4 teams as a road favorite, but the Saints are that, at least as of now.
Chargers at Chiefs (-8, 42)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Some fairly rare air here for the Chiefs, who are -8 or higher against the Chargers for the first time since Week 17 of the 2019 season. They were -9.5 in that game and won by 10. In Week 14 of the 2015 season, they were -11 and won just 10-3. There have been seven instances of the Chiefs -8 or higher against the Chargers dating back to 1989. All but one of them came in Week 14 or later, presumably when the weather at Arrowhead was more of a factor. The 1998 game was in Week 3, so this is a pretty early game relatively speaking according to the KillerSports database.
Cowboys at Packers (-1, 53)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
What a gross handicap this is. The Cowboys are a mess. The Packers are wildly inconsistent. But, we did see a flipped favorite situation from the lookahead line based on last week’s results, as the Cowboys lost to the Bucs and the Packers blew out the Bears by 24 points. Not surprisingly, we’ve seen the total go up here, which is typically what happens off the rip with Cowboys games. Dallas was only a small favorite at the books that did open that way, but now they are a small underdog.
Commanders at 49ers (-7.5, 51)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
The Commanders are coming into this game off of a tie. Per the KillerSports database, teams coming off of a tie are 15-21 ATS and 11-25 SU dating back to 1989. Ties are quite rare, so it isn’t really a significant sample size. But, it is something that bettors usually take into account and will almost blindly fade the team that had to play an entire extra quarter. San Francisco is coming off of a win over rival Seattle, so this could be viewed as a letdown spot, but Washington is also traveling clear across the country after a division game of their own and with that overtime period taking more energy from the team.
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