We are looking at a very big Week 7 college football schedule and one that actually starts on Wednesday night with a couple of Conference USA clashes. I promise you that it won’t be good, sound football, but there’s no reason to complain about football on a Wednesday night.
In theory, both sides of the counter should be seeing their numbers tighten up, so maybe we’ll see smaller line moves in size early in the week, but there are always going to be positions taken. The sportsbooks can’t be on top of everything that happens with so many teams and so few reporters for some of them and bettors who specialize in college football or in getting the best numbers that they can are always going to strike where they see value.
This week doesn’t have a lot of high-profile games, but there are a lot of high-variance teams against other high-variance teams.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 7 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, October 5 at 5:45 p.m. PT
Missouri State (-2.5, 51) at Middle Tennessee
Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This is not a headline-grabber by any means, but it will be an interesting line to follow. Missouri State head coach Ryan Beard did not shed a whole lot of light on the availability of QB Jacob Clark. Clark, who was wearing a pretty big knee brace and sporting a pair of crutches in the second half of the Bears’ last game, will have a lot to do with where this line goes. DraftKings opened -3.5 and got bet down to -2.5, while Circa opened -3 and moved around -2 and -2.5 before settling in. Circa did open this total at 54, so maybe the move on the Under is a sign about Clark’s chances of playing.
Missouri State-Middle Tennessee Matchup
East Carolina at Tulane (-7, 54.5)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The best game on Thursday is clearly this one in the American Conference. Circa opened Tulane -8 and sat -7 as of Sunday night, while DraftKings and Fanduel were also required to move down a bit from their opening numbers. We’ll have to see if this line holds the key number of 7 or not. Public bettors, aka the volume on the game, are likely to side with Tulane as a team whose name is more familiar. Is 7 the stopping point for sharp money on East Carolina or will it keep going?
South Florida at North Texas (-1.5, 67.5)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The game of the night on Friday also comes from the American Conference. Circa slapped a pick ‘em on this one at open to see where bettors would line up and they came in on North Texas, with the Mean Green sliding out to a small favorite. But, I think we’re going to get competing sharp groups and some great two-way action on this game. South Florida has a higher profile because of their game against Miami and win over Florida. But, UNT is playing at a very fine level with an impressive statistical profile. Love this game. Not sure I love betting on it.
South Florida-North Texas Matchup
Alabama (-3.5, 52.5) at Missouri
Saturday, Noon ET
This is one of the few marquee games on tap for this week. DraftKings actually had 5.5 on this one, but money gradually came in on Missouri. Circa was -4 on this one and actually posted the total at 56.5. The Under money is a little bit of a surprise to me, given how well both of these quarterbacks have played up to this point. But, this will obviously be a line to watch. Anything around a key number is and 3 is as important as it gets in a game of teams that are perceived to be fairly evenly matched.
Toledo (-9.5, 49.5) at Bowling Green
Saturday, Noon ET
The I-75 rivalry game in northwest Ohio between Toledo and Bowling Green is this upcoming weekend. Bettors have been hopping on the Toledo train early on, as this line started -7 at DraftKings and is now approaching double digits. Circa actually had to go north with the number, as Toledo opened -6. A lot of bettors seem enamored with fading Bowling Green, who has had a couple of misleading box score efforts so far this season.
Stanford at SMU (-18, 55.5)
Saturday, Noon ET (CW Network)
It isn’t always the game with the biggest teams that gets the line move that jumps out. This game is a prime example. It’s an ACC game with some decent travel from Palo Alto to Dallas. Stanford hasn’t really done much to inspire confidence this season, but early bettors scooped the points with the Cardinal. Fanduel opened 20.5 here, while Circa opened 20. Most of the market was on 18 or 18.5 as of Sunday night, the Mustangs are not getting the love that we saw them get so often last season. And Stanford, presumed to be a doormat after how their season started, may be showing some statistical improvements, at least enough to get some bettors to bite.
UMass at Kent State (-2.5, 49.5)
Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Look, this game is cheeks, but it needs to be mentioned here. How bad is UMass? Well, they’re an underdog to a Kent State team that hasn’t beaten a FBS team since November 26, 2022. The Golden Flashes haven’t even been favored over a FBS opponent since Week 12 of the 2022 season. Hell, they’ve been favored only twice since then (Central Connecticut State 2023, St. Francis (PA) 2024 – they lost as a 17.5-point favorite). But, they are favored here and I just had to mention it, as DraftKings moved to 3 while I was writing.
Indiana at Oregon (-8, 54.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is probably the game of the day because of what it means in the College Football Playoff landscape. Indiana was there last year, despite losing badly to Ohio State in the regular season and then Notre Dame in the CFP. Curt Cignetti’s crew is off to an unblemished start and their performances are aging gracefully. But, Oregon is on a far different level than the five teams that the Hoosiers have beaten thus far. Still, bettors like the visitors here. Circa opened 10 in this game and had 7.5 showing at time of writing. DraftKings was at 7.5 as well. Other books were sitting 8.5, so 8 is more or less an average, but the line was higher than that at open across the market.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (Dallas) (-2.5, 42)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Red River Rivalry line and line movement will hinge on John Mateer’s status for Oklahoma. Head coach Brent Venables said he assumes he won’t have the Heisman hopeful at QB, but that might just be gamesmanship. Mateer had thumb surgery on his throwing hand with back-to-back byes, as Oklahoma had a real bye and then played Kent State. As his status clears up, this line will get pushed, poked, and prodded into shape.
Old Dominion (-14, 55) at Marshall
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
This was one of the more noteworthy movers on Sunday, as Old Dominion was -11 at Circa on the open and shot up to -14. DraftKings also moved up from 12.5 to 14, as the Monarchs got some play. Fanduel was also tasked with adjusting the line north. ODU is a really popular team right now for sharper bettors who are focused on the Group of Five schools and Marshall is a team that nobody had hopes for heading into the season, as they basically lost most of their roster and the head coach. I think we see sportsbooks inching out on ODU begging for any Marshall money they can get.
Arizona State at Utah (-5.5, 49)
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
It looks as though the early bettors like the favorite here, at least to some degree. Circa had actually moved up from -5 to -5.5, while DraftKings went from 4.5 to 5.5. This is going to be a line that will get a lot of play and a lot of interest throughout the week and especially on Saturday, as it is a late game on a major network between a playoff team from last season and a very hyped Utah team. Keep a close eye on this line, as it’s in the dead zone between 4 and 6 and bettors will eventually tip it one way or the other.
San Diego State (-6.5, 42) at Nevada
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
A bit of a rare miss by the market here on the late-night Mountain West tilt, specifically at Circa, where San Diego State opened -4. DraftKings actually had 7 on the come out, while Fanduel hung a 4.5. San Diego State has played rather well of late and Nevada really hasn’t, so I do think we ultimately see this line touch 7. Then we’ll know if Nevada buyback is coming or not. My guess is no.
San Diego State-Nevada Matchup
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
