Week 7 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 7 College Football Power Ratings

This is a tough time of year in college football because you get a lot of good teams against other good teams and it can be hard to put those games in the proper context. For example, Alabama had a much more impressive resume than Georgia, but the Bulldogs won the head-to-head meeting. I don’t know if the Bulldogs are truly better than the Crimson Tide, but I know that Alabama had already beaten a South Carolina team that just went to Gainesville and crushed Florida and that the Tide had also smoked Mississippi State.

So, how good is Georgia then? Did Alabama just have a one-off game? Have the Bulldogs just been coasting for a while and have they now flipped the switch?

Texas lost to Oklahoma. Ohio State lost to Texas. Does that result that Ohio State wasn’t a part of change the narrative about the Buckeyes heading into this week’s game against Indiana? Is Kentucky really that good? Is Oregon really that bad? How do we evaluate a game with five lost fumbles and seven total turnovers where a team only lost 17-15? This week was a hard one to navigate from a power ratings standpoint for me because so many premier teams were involved in marquee games or some wild ones. The next week features a ton of great games.

My primary emotion when updating my power ratings this week was to feel discouraged. It often feels like just rearranging deck chairs on a week-to-week basis because a team that got a bump will suddenly regress and you just end up going back to where they were. Everything is a moving target in a sport that has become increasingly high-variance because of all the personnel movement. This was the first week that I really didn’t enjoy updating my numbers. And I wonder if that’s what next week will be like as well.

Week 7 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Notre Dame	94.5	3.5
2	Georgia	93.5	2.5
3	Ohio State	93	3.5
4	Miami (Florida)	91	3
5	Indiana	89	3.5
6	Alabama	88.5	3.5
7	Texas	88	3.5
8	LSU	86	3
9	Florida	85	2
10	Mississippi	85	3.5
11	Oregon	84.5	3.5
12	Utah	83	2.5
13	Missouri	81	3.5
14	Nebraska	80.5	2
15	Wake Forest	80.5	2
16	Oklahoma	80	3
17	Tennessee	79.5	2.5
18	UCLA	79.5	1.5
19	USC	79	3
20	Auburn	78.5	2
21	Houston	78.5	2
22	Mississippi State	78.5	2
23	BYU	77.5	3.5
24	Northwestern	77.5	1.5
25	Texas Tech	77.5	3.5
26	Kentucky	76.5	2
27	Texas A&M	76.5	2
28	Oklahoma State	76	2
29	South Carolina	76	2.5
30	Louisville	75.5	3.5
31	SMU	75.5	3.5
32	Iowa	75	3.5
33	Arizona	74.5	3
34	Michigan	74.5	2.5
35	Baylor	74	1.5
36	Wisconsin	74	2
37	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
38	Boise State	73	3.5
39	Virginia	72.5	2
40	Duke	72	2.5
41	Florida State	71.5	2.5
42	Penn State	71.5	2.5
43	Kansas	71	2.5
44	Kansas State	71	3
45	Arizona State	70.5	2
46	Minnesota	70.5	2.5
47	North Carolina	70.5	2
48	North Carolina State	70.5	2.5
49	Purdue	70.5	1
50	Washington	70.5	3.5
51	TCU	70	2.5
52	Vanderbilt	70	2.5
53	Clemson	69.5	2.5
54	Oregon State	68.5	3.5
55	Cincinnati	68	1.5
56	Illinois	68	2.5
57	Memphis	68	2.5
58	Pittsburgh	68	2.5
59	Iowa State	67.5	2.5
60	North Dakota State	67	3.5
61	UCF	67	2
62	New Mexico	66.5	2
63	Georgia Tech	66	2
64	Arkansas	65.5	1.5
65	James Madison	65	3.5
66	Liberty	65	2.5
67	West Virginia	65	2
68	North Texas	64.5	2.5
69	Maryland	64	2
70	UTSA	64	3.5
71	California	63.5	2
72	Colorado	63.5	2.5
73	Michigan State	63.5	1.5
74	Fresno State	63	2
75	UNLV	63	2.5
76	Texas State	62	2
77	Rutgers	61.5	2
78	Boston College	61	2
79	Syracuse	60.5	2.5
80	Stanford	60	1.5
81	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
82	Navy	59	2.5
83	South Florida	59	3
84	Army	58.5	2.5
85	East Carolina	58.5	2
86	Louisiana Tech	58.5	2
87	Toledo	58.5	3.5
88	Connecticut	58	3
89	Georgia State	58	1
90	Temple	58	2
91	Tulane	58	2.5
92	Tulsa	57.5	1
93	Western Michigan	57.5	3.5
94	Air Force	57	2
95	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
96	Jacksonville State	56.5	3.5
97	Nevada	56.5	1
98	Utah State	56.5	3
99	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
100	Troy	56	3
101	Washington State	56	3
102	South Alabama	55.5	2
103	Appalachian State	55	2
104	Florida International	55	2
105	San Diego State	55	2
106	Arkansas State	54	2.5
107	UAB	54	2.5
108	Old Dominion	53.5	1.5
109	Delaware	53	1
110	Marshall	53	3.5
111	Colorado State	52.5	2
112	Kennesaw State	52	2.5
113	Rice	52	3
114	Wyoming	51.5	2
115	San Jose State	51	2.5
116	Middle Tennessee	50.5	1.5
117	New Mexico State	50.5	2.5
118	Sam Houston State	50.5	2
119	Coastal Carolina	50	2
120	Hawai’i	50	3
121	Ohio	49.5	3.5
122	Miami (Ohio)	48	3.5
123	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2.5
124	Central Michigan	47	3
125	Western Kentucky	46.5	3
126	Buffalo	46	2
127	Missouri State	46	2
128	Southern Mississippi	45.5	2
129	Northern Illinois	44.5	1.5
130	Kent State	44	1
131	Massachusetts	43	1
132	Bowling Green	42.5	2
133	Louisiana-Monroe	40.5	2
134	UTEP	40	1
135	Ball State	39	3
136	Charlotte	39	1
137	Akron	38.5	2
138	Sacramento State	31.5	2

Week 7 PR Adjustments

Up: Kennesaw State +1, Liberty +3, South Florida +1.5, Louisville +1.5, Iowa +1, Wyoming +2, Ohio State +1.5, South Carolina +1.5, Buffalo +2, Wake Forest +2.5, Old Dominion +1.5, Purdue +2.5, Oklahoma State +3, Utah +1.5, UCLA +4, Oklahoma +1.5, Arkansas +1, North Texas +2.5, Notre Dame +2, Oregon State +3, Fresno State +1, Georgia +1.5, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Louisiana Tech +2.5, Texas State +2

Down: Jacksonville State -1.5, New Mexico State -1, FIU -1, Missouri State -2.5, Florida State -2.5, Washington -3, San Jose State -2, Utah State -1.5, Washington State -1.5, Florida -2.5, Sacramento State -3, Toledo -3, Pitt -2, West Virginia -2.5, App State -2.5, Texas A&M -2.5, Oregon -4, Tennessee -4, Charlotte -2.5, Stanford -2.5, Boise State -1, Air Force -5 (Szarka inj.), Kansas State -3, Miami (OH) -4.5, Akron -1.5, Colorado State -3.5, Syracuse -5, Penn State -2.5, UMass -4 (Watson inj)

Note: UCLA was adjusted up before the Nico Iamaleava news broke.

I’m getting to this a day late because it was my birthday over the weekend and I’m playing a lot of catch-up, so no notes on the teams that I moved around. Just my list of adjustments.

My Week 7 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
10/13	Delaware	Middle Tennessee	+1
	FIU	Jacksonville State	-5
10/14	Kennesaw State	Missouri State	+4
	Western Kentucky	Sam Houston	-6
10/15	Georgia Southern	Old Dominion	+1
	East Carolina	UAB	+2
	Colorado State	Texas State	-11.5
10/16	Memphis	Tulane	+7.5
	Washington	Purdue	-1
	App State	Coastal Carolina	+3
10/17	Charlotte	Temple	-21
	Louisville	Syracuse	+12.5
	Ohio State	Indiana	+0.5
	Northwestern	Michigan State	+12.5
	Rutgers	Maryland	-4.5
	Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-9.5
	Ball State	Bowling Green	-5.5
	Toledo	Eastern Michigan	+8.5
	Florida Atlantic	Army	-2
	Florida State	Miami (FL)	-22.5
	Akron	Miami (OH)	-13
	Penn State	Michigan	-5.5
	Western Michigan	Central Michigan	+7.5
	Pitt	Boston College	+5
	Oklahoma State	Houston	-4.5
	North Carolina	Duke	-4
	Kent State	South Florida	-18
	Georgia State	James Madison	-10.5
	UMass	Buffalo	-5
	Navy	UTSA	-8.5
	Troy	Louisiana	-3
	Cincinnati	West Virginia	+1
	Arkansas State	Southern Miss	+6.5
	TCU	Baylor	-5.5
	Louisiana Tech	UL Monroe	+16
	Florida	Texas	-6.5
	Arizona State	Texas Tech	-10.5
	Utah	Colorado	+17
	Notre Dame	BYU	+13.5
	San Jose State	UTEP	+10
	Wake Forest	Cal	+15
	Wisconsin	UCLA	-7
	Nebraska	Oregon	-7.5
	Alabama	Tennessee	+6.5
	Auburn	Georgia	-17.5
	Kentucky	Oklahoma	-6.5
	Arkansas	Vanderbilt	-7
	Missouri	Ole Miss	-7.5
	Kansas	Kansas State	-3
	Ohio	Sacramento State	+16
	Virginia	SMU	-6.5
	Mississippi State	LSU	-10.5
	Northern Illinois	Wyoming	-9
	Tulsa	Rice	+2.5
	UNLV	Air Force	+4
	Washington State	Oregon State	-16
	New Mexico	Hawaii	+13.5
	Nevada	North Dakota State	-14
	Fresno State	San Diego State	+6

Games to consider:

Sam Houston +1.5 (-6) vs. Western Kentucky: Really big overlay here for Wednesday’s Conference USA clash. I’ll have to go back through and see what I’m missing here, but I thought the Bearkats were much improved early in the season compared to last season.

Northwestern -7 (-12.5) at Michigan State: Maybe I’ve drank too much of the Chip Kelly Kool-Aid, but also, Michigan State was a pretty good underdog bet early in the season and I think they’ve definitely gotten worse as the year has gone along.

Cincinnati +2.5 (-1) at West Virginia: The Mountaineers have dropped off quickly, as Michael Hawkins Jr. has been showcasing his limitations as a passer of late.

Florida +11.5 (+6.5) at Texas: I know that was a really bad look for Florida against South Carolina and they got smoked by Missouri, but I’m starting to think Texas just isn’t very good. The offense is quite poor.

UCLA -2.5 (-7) vs. Wisconsin: UCLA’s win was the hardest game of the week to unpack because they had so many takeaways and only scored 17 points. Despite what Wisconsin has done lately, I’m not a believer. That said, my line is also off because of the Nico Iamaleava injury.

UNLV +1.5 (-4.5) at Air Force: UNLV’s been wildly inconsistent this season, but what a defensive effort from them against North Dakota State over the weekend. Air Force beat a terrible Northern Illinois team, but they were far less explosive without QB Liam Szarka.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.