UFC Edmonton Predictions:
Edmonton hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night, a 13-bout card, 12 of which feature a Canadian fighter facing off against a non-Canadian opponent. One women’s flyweight bout matches two U.S. fighters, and we’ll discuss it below.
Five matchups feature fighters in the welterweight division (170 pounds) and above; these weight classes offer the highest finishing potential. Five fights also feature substantial youth advantages, three of which are 10-year spreads that heavily favor the younger combatant.
Last week, Francisco Prado showed up early, made weight, then finished his cheating adversary who waddled to the scale some seven and one-half pounds OVER his agreed-upon limit.
Prado +100 did as was handicapped and knocked the cheating Brazilian out. Prado remains in the organization, while his opponent, Issy Bonfim, is now cut.
On to Edmonton
Mike Malott -135 vs. Joaquin Buckley +115
Welterweight (170 pounds) main event
Canadian Mike Malott is a well-rounded fighter who began as a striker, then acquired a black belt in BJJ to complement his fighting repertoire.
In Malott’s first foray into headlining a Canadian event, he ran out to a quick lead against Neil Magny but forgot to regulate himself and gassed out, then was submitted in the third round.
Malott, currently ranked 11th in the division, enters this main event after winning his last four bouts following that Magny snafu, but he’s competed against talent ranked outside the top 15, to be honest.
Malott is fluid on his feet, has decent striking acumen, and while we rarely see it, he is apparently a qualified grappler
In from the States to compete against Malott is eighth-ranked Joaquin Buckley.
Buckley’s talent and fighting personality come from unrelenting forward pressure and abundant fight-ending power. He backs up that pressure with a range of strikes, elbows, knees, and kicks, all delivered with maiming force.
Once the bell rings, it seems elementary that Malott will need to mute Buckley’s power striking by sticking to him like glue. Malott’s spacing and grappling are key to this fight. If he can ground Buckley, this fight becomes much more winnable than if he is forced to compete with this blaster on the feet.
However, if Malott struggles to press Buckley against the fence or engage in the clinch, this could be a painful night for the Canadian welterweight. Buckley is aggressive, powerful, determined, and arriving off of four straight losses. Buckley’s losses were all to top-10 ranked talent in the division. While Buckley appears to enter this fight at a disadvantage, I would caution readers to dismiss that thought.
Malott opened as an underdog in this fight and is now the favorite, currently priced -135 at Circa with a total of 3.5 Rds. Over -130.
I believe Buckley can keep this fight upright despite his lack of wrestling ability. We have seen Malott use his wrestling/grappling very little in previous fights, which is concerning. We must believe that while wrestling isn’t learned in a camp or even in a couple of years, Buckley is short, compact, and will be hard to ground in this fight.
UFC Edmonton Best Bet: Joaquin Buckley +115
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Over -135
Lean over.
Kaitlyn Cerminara -270 vs. Mackenzie Stiller +230
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Mackenzie Stiller makes her UFC debut after competing in Bellator and LFA. She is a submission fighter from Illinois.
Stiller stands 5’2” and has a 62” reach, both highly disadvantageous stats compared with other UFC flyweights, let alone Cerminara, one of the tallest flyweights on the women’s roster.
I mention Stiller’s stats because, as capable as Stiller may be, she will be overmatched and overwhelmed by Cerminara, her 37-year-old veteran UFC opponent.
Despite the fact that Kaitlyn Cerminara has been inactive since March of 2024, the advanced level of her mixed martial arts weaponry, the level of competition she has faced, and the depth of her UFC experience force me to regard the price of -270 as a meager one and a price that should be attacked by bettors, for this form of mismatch comes along rarely.
Cerminara’s experience, who she’s battled, her seven-inch height advantage, and her four-inch reach advantage make this fight the foundation of any parlays I want to use this weekend.
Cerminara’s price is high, but it’s not as high as the difference in mixed martial arts supremacy here. Stiller, the submission specialist, is making her debut against a cagey, weathered veteran who has never been submitted.
Cerminara will win this fight by one-sided decision in a fight that honestly isn’t UFC-caliber in any way.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -330
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