Guardians vs. Rays
Monday night brings Game 6 of the ALCS and the thrifty (cheap) Guardians might have to go to their most expensive pitcher for some innings for the first time in the series. With Gavin Williams not an option on short rest, manager Stephen Vogt said after the Game 5 loss that they were figuring out the pitching plan. Well, that’s likely to include Tanner Bibee in some capacity, while the Rays get to send out Trade Deadline acquisition and Game 2 winner Freddy Peralta. On that note, the Rays are favored to end the series and head to the Fall Classic to face the Brewers.
Guardians vs. Rays (-143, 6.5) Prediction
8:05 p.m. ET
Except for Williams and Sunday’s starter Parker Messick, everybody will be available in the Cleveland bullpen. The reason I mention Bibee is because somebody has to give this team some length or at least sneak through an inning or two. Messick was only able to give the Guardians two innings on Sunday, as he minimized the damage as best he could, but two arduous innings were enough for the manager to go to the bullpen.
With 44 pitches from Foster Griffin on Saturday, he’s maybe an option for an inning, so Bibee, who signed a contract extension after a stellar 2024 season, might have to get some key outs. He had a 4.36 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and a 4.52 FIP during the regular season, as he missed fewer bats, saw a velocity drop, and gave up a career-high 29 home runs. Bibee has faced three batters this postseason and he had two walks and a strikeout against the White Sox. He hasn’t pitched in 11 days.
A rocky outing on Saturday from Slade Cecconi probably doesn’t inspire much confidence, as he allowed two runs (one earned) on a couple of hits over an inning. Joey Cantillo has walked four batters with just two strikeouts in three postseason appearances. The guys who could provide multiple innings for the Guardians haven’t shown well in limited action and a do-or-die game is a tough time to experiment.
Williams had a velocity drop in the fifth inning of his Game 3 start, so it’s understandable that he wouldn’t be an option here just a few short days later. He was also called upon for his first-ever relief outing against the White Sox, so he’s been used a lot. If the Guardians can somehow get it to Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith, they’ll be in much better shape.
Unfortunately for them, their fans, and their backers, Peralta was sensational in Game 2. He went six shutout innings with six strikeouts, giving up four hits and a couple of walks. Peralta didn’t even leverage his changeup heavily, as he threw over 70% fastballs and the Guardians couldn’t square anything up. They did have a lot of foul balls, but minimal hard contact in play. With Peralta in climate-controlled Tropicana Field instead of chilly Cleveland, I would assume his velo gains from Game 2 stick around for this start.
After putting up solid numbers against the White Sox, Cleveland’s offense has gone in the tank for the most part in this series. They are down to .232 as a team with just a .362 SLG. In this series, specifically, they are batting .238/.290/.335. The Rays haven’t been much better at .245/.295/.344, but getting length from their starters has really helped, including two excellent efforts from Drew Rasmussen.
Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 6 Prediction
It pains my Cleveland heart to say this, but I think this series is over on Monday night. Tampa Bay won the AL East by 4.5 games. Their lead was never smaller than three games after August 2 and, at worst, they were basically locked into a Wild Card spot, though they obviously wanted the division and the bye. Cleveland had to fight, scratch, and claw to simply make the playoffs and then had to play two additional games in the Division Series. They look tired. The pitchers are gutting it out, but, they, too, are running on fumes.
The rainout and the loss of an off day really hurt Cleveland. Playing in the slop of Friday night would have likely benefitted them against a team from Florida that plays indoors. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. For whatever reason, the Guardians flew into TPA instead of PIE on Sunday night, arriving in Tampa right around midnight. The Rays were about 20 minutes behind them, flying into St. Petersburg/Clearwater from Burke Lakefront Airport. But, those guys get to go sleep in their own beds and probably had a much more enjoyable flight.
A couple bets I like in this game:
Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+119): He had six in Game 1 and barely used his changeup. If he starts throwing that here and can tunnel it against his high fastball, he’s going to make a lot of lefties look silly.
Rays -1.5 (+161): I typically don’t like home team run lines, but Stephen Vogt is going to be forced to use some lesser arms here or end up using his leverage guys in the middle innings just to try and keep the game tight. Meanwhile, I don’t see Cleveland making good adjustments to hit Peralta.
