Week 9 weeknight college football best bets
I don’t know what we did to deserve college football five days a week, but I’ll gladly take it. It’s not always the most glamorous teams, but the weeknight slate is always entertaining and of course, offers an opportunity to make some money betting on it. This week offers a de facto Conference USA championship preview, the roller coaster of a team known as Sam Houston, and the Diego Pavia-led New Mexico State Aggies, who are a mainstay on the weeknight slate, among others. As always, my T Shoe Index has indicated there is some value on a couple of these games from a betting perspective.
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Louisiana Tech (-2.5) vs New Mexico State, O/U 52 – Tuesday Night
I’ve been on the wrong side of this New Mexico State team too many times this season, so I’m going to jump at the opportunity to finally bet Jerry Kill’s team, since TSI shows value on the Aggies against Louisiana Tech. Tech is a 2.5-point favorite, but my numbers indicate New Mexico State should be a two-point favorite here. The Aggies are No. 99 in TSI offensive ratings and No. 77 on defense; whereas, the Bulldogs are No. 97 on offense and No. 113 on defense. To me, the Tech defense trying to stop Aggies’ QB Diego Pavia is the mismatch of this game. I’m going to take the points with what TSI tells me is the better team here.
Pick: New Mexico State +2.5 (Play to pick)
Western Kentucky vs Liberty (-5), O/U 61.5 – Tuesday Night
There are some teams that TSI has seemed irrationally high on for most or all of this year but has been proven right more often than not. The Liberty Flames are one of those teams. I was on record on my “Calculated Risk” podcast in the preseason calling Liberty the best team in Conference USA, despite Western Kentucky being the overwhelming consensus pick. That prediction can come home to roost tonight. I project the Flames as 11.5-point favorites here against a Hilltoppers team that has pretty substantially underwhelmed this year, relative to expectations. Liberty is my No. 2 Group of Five team, while Western Kentucky is No. 24; furthermore, Liberty is No. 1 on offense (G5) and No. 14 on defense, while Western Kentucky is No. 14 on offense and No. 41 on defense. I’m laying the points with Jamey Chadwell’s team.
Pick: Liberty -5 (Play to -6.5)
Georgia Southern (-1.5) vs Georgia State, O/U 62.5 – Thursday Night
The advantage of having a model is that it helps me identify teams early on that the market is too high or too low on. I mentioned this with Liberty, and this game offers another team that TSI has been (rightfully) keen on most of the season; Georgia State. We bet them a couple weeks ago against Marshall and that was a no-sweat cover. They’re playing Georgia Southern Thursday as a 1.5-point underdog in a game that TSI indicates the Panthers should be a three-point favorite. Georgia State is the No. 11 rated Group of Five team in TSI, while the Eagles are No. 28; further, the Panthers are No. 11 on offense and No. 24 on defense in the G5 and Georgia Southern is just No. 20 and No. 39, respectively. Again, I’ll take the points with what is the better team on paper.
Pick: Georgia State +1.5 (Play to pick)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
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