Week 9 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 9 College Football Power Ratings

With the final weekend in October upon us, we’re at the “what you see is what you get” phase of the college football season in my opinion. More than enough time has passed for these teams to come together with a bunch of new faces. If a team is consistently inconsistent, that’s what they are. If a team is underachieving, that’s what they are. If a team is overachieving, that’s what they are.

Of course, there are some variables to keep in mind. Injuries, strength of schedule, and coaching changes – an important thing to bring up this week because NC State fired Dave Doeren and Baylor fired Dave Aranda. Sunday was a rough day to be a Dave. Those variables should be part of the handicap, but I don’t think we should be guessing any longer about the identity of these teams or what we can expect. Things might not always work out from a point spread standpoint, but the sample sizes are large enough to trust the numbers and the eye test isn’t going to lie or be all that misleading from here on out.

The schedule will still play a role with travel spots and letdowns and all of that. Some will be priced into the market. Some won’t be or maybe won’t be factored in enough. There will be some rest advantages thanks to bye weeks. It’s up to you to determine how much those things matter. Did BYU lose to UCF because of the long travel off of the biggest home game in program history? Or did the Cougars lose because they’re not actually a top-five team and a loss was coming? The answer is probably some of both and BYU won’t be the only example of those rhetorical questions moving forward.

But, my numbers are updated and my lines have been put together and now it’s time to see how they stack up with the betting market.

Week 9 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	93.5	2.5
2	Notre Dame	92	3.5
3	Miami (Florida)	89.5	3
4	LSU	89	3
5	Ohio State	87	3.5
6	Alabama	86.5	3.5
7	Mississippi	86.5	3.5
8	Indiana	86	3.5
9	Texas	86	3.5
10	Florida	85	2
11	Tennessee	81.5	2.5
12	Missouri	81	3.5
13	Wake Forest	80.5	2
14	Oklahoma	80	3
15	Oklahoma State	80	2
16	Utah	80	2.5
17	Houston	79.5	2
18	Oregon	79.5	3.5
19	Nebraska	79	2
20	South Carolina	79	2.5
21	Auburn	78.5	2
22	Northwestern	78.5	1.5
23	SMU	78.5	3.5
24	Kentucky	78	2
25	BYU	77.5	3.5
26	Texas Tech	77.5	3.5
27	Iowa	76.5	3.5
28	Texas A&M	76.5	2
29	UCLA	76.5	1.5
30	Michigan	76	2.5
31	USC	76	3
32	Boise State	75.5	3.5
33	Louisville	75.5	3.5
34	Wisconsin	75	2
35	Arizona	74.5	3
36	Florida State	74	2.5
37	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
38	Mississippi State	72.5	2
39	Duke	72	2.5
40	Penn State	71.5	2.5
41	Minnesota	70.5	2.5
42	Washington	70.5	3.5
43	Kansas	70	2.5
44	Baylor	69.5	1.5
45	Cincinnati	69.5	1.5
46	Clemson	69.5	2.5
47	TCU	69.5	2.5
48	UCF	69.5	2
49	Virginia	69.5	2
50	New Mexico	68.5	2
51	North Carolina	68.5	2
52	Oregon State	68.5	3.5
53	Illinois	68	2.5
54	North Carolina State	67.5	2.5
55	North Texas	67.5	2.5
56	Arizona State	67	2
57	Arkansas	67	1.5
58	North Dakota State	67	3.5
59	Purdue	67	1
60	Vanderbilt	67	2.5
61	Pittsburgh	66.5	2.5
62	Boston College	66	2
63	West Virginia	66	2
64	Iowa State	65.5	2.5
65	James Madison	65.5	3.5
66	Memphis	65.5	2.5
67	Kansas State	65	3
68	Liberty	65	2.5
69	Syracuse	65	2.5
70	Michigan State	64.5	1.5
71	UTSA	64.5	3.5
72	Army	63.5	2.5
73	California	63.5	2
74	Texas State	63.5	2
75	Colorado	63	2.5
76	Fresno State	63	2
77	Louisiana Tech	63	2
78	Georgia Tech	62.5	2
79	Navy	62.5	2.5
80	Maryland	61.5	2
81	Rutgers	61.5	2
82	UNLV	61	2.5
83	Tulsa	60.5	1
84	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
85	Nevada	59	1
86	South Florida	59	3
87	Stanford	59	1.5
88	Western Michigan	59	3.5
89	East Carolina	58.5	2
90	Toledo	58.5	3.5
91	Connecticut	58	3
92	Georgia Southern	58	3.5
93	Washington State	58	3
94	Air Force	57.5	2
95	Louisiana-Lafayette	57.5	2
96	Florida International	57	2
97	Tulane	57	2.5
98	Appalachian State	56.5	2
99	Arkansas State	56.5	2.5
100	Utah State	56.5	3
101	Georgia State	56	1
102	Jacksonville State	55.5	3.5
103	Rice	55.5	3
104	South Alabama	55.5	2
105	Temple	55	2
106	Marshall	54.5	3.5
107	UAB	54	2.5
108	Wyoming	54	2
109	Old Dominion	53.5	1.5
110	Ohio	53	3.5
111	Middle Tennessee	52	1.5
112	San Diego State	52	2
113	Troy	52	3
114	Colorado State	51.5	2
115	Coastal Carolina	51	2
116	Miami (Ohio)	51	3.5
117	San Jose State	51	2.5
118	Delaware	50.5	1
119	Kennesaw State	50.5	2.5
120	New Mexico State	50.5	2.5
121	Hawai’i	50	3
122	Western Kentucky	49	3
123	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2.5
124	Southern Mississippi	47.5	2
125	Central Michigan	47	3
126	Buffalo	46	2
127	Missouri State	46	2
128	Massachusetts	45	1
129	Charlotte	43	1
130	Sam Houston State	43	2
131	Kent State	42.5	1
132	Louisiana-Monroe	41	2
133	Ball State	40.5	3
134	Bowling Green	40.5	2
135	Northern Illinois	40.5	1.5
136	UTEP	40	1
137	Akron	38.5	2
138	Sacramento State	26.5	2

Week 9 PR Adjustments

Up: Marshall +1.5, App State +2.5, UMass +3.5 (Watson return), Army +2.5, Wyoming +2.5, Stanford +1.5, Boston College +2.5, Rice +3, Syracuse +4.5 (Angeli return), Michigan +1.5, Western Michigan +1.5, Cincinnati +2.5, Miami (OH) +3, UCF +2.5, South Carolina +3, Northwestern +2.5, UL Monroe +2.5, Arkansas State +2.5, Wisconsin +2.5, Kansas +1.5, UTSA +2, Southern Miss +2, LSU +3, Oklahoma State +2.5, Utah +1.5, Nevada +2.5, North Texas +3, Louisiana Tech +4.5, Boise State +2.5, New Mexico +2, Colorado State +3 (Hejny return), Charlotte +2.5

Down: South Alabama -2.5, Sam Houston -2, James Madison -1.5, Air Force -2.5, NC State -3, TCU -2, Georgia Tech -3.5, North Carolina -2, Sacramento State -2, Indiana -1.5, Texas Tech -2.5, Troy -4, Georgia State -2, USC -3, Baylor -3, Northern Illinois -2.5, Louisiana -2.5, Oregon -4, Colorado -3, Michigan State -1.5, Kansas State -6 (Johnson inj.), Iowa State -2, Washington State -1.5, San Diego State -3, Utah -3, Ohio State -2, Tulane -2.5

Syracuse +4.5: Way different team with Steve Angeli at QB. Nice win over a UNC team that I’ve been impressed with lately

Louisiana Tech +4.5: Seems I’ve been sleeping a bit on this team, as they got a big bump.

UMass +3.5: His return didn’t really work out against UConn, but Pop Watson back in the lineup makes this a much better team

Kansas State -6: Whispers were on social media about Avery Johnson suffering a big injury in practice; after what we saw last week from Kansas State, any length of time without Johnson could cripple this offense

Troy -4: In the pantheon of bad losses, losing to UL Monroe is up there

Oregon -4: I struggled with this adjustment because Oregon pretty badly outgained Illinois and was the better team in a lot of respects, but this has quickly become a lost season

Georgia Tech -3.5: Methinks we underestimated how good of a player Haynes King truly was

My Week 9 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
10/27	Delaware	Western Kentucky	-1.5
	Sam Houston	Missouri State	-5
10/28	Kennesaw State	Middle Tennessee	-3
	Jacksonville State	New Mexico State	+2.5
10/29	Troy	James Madison	-17
	Florida Atlantic	North Texas	-11
10/30	Tulane	Charlotte	+13
	Baylor	UCF	-2
	Kent State	Sacramento State	+14
10/31	Army	Memphis	-4.5
	Marshall	Old Dominion	-0.5
	Cal	NC State	-6.5
	Utah	Cincinnati	+10
	Florida	Georgia (N – Atlanta)	-8.5
	Temple	East Carolina	-5.5
	Stanford	Louisville	-20
	Georgia Tech	Pitt	-6.5
	Illinois	Maryland	+4.5
	Michigan	Rutgers	+12.5
	App State	Georgia Southern	-5
	Miami (FL)	North Carolina	+19
	UAB	South Florida	-8
	SMU	Syracuse	+11
	Bowling Green	Western Michigan	-22
	Boston College	Duke	-8.5
	Virginia	Wake Forest	-13
	Minnesota	Indiana	-19
	Purdue	Penn State	-7
	Clemson	Florida State	-7
	Notre Dame	Navy (N – Foxboro)	+29.5
	South Carolina	Oklahoma	-4
	Missouri	Arkansas	+12.5
	Coastal Carolina	Georgia State (w/ Brown)	-6
	Kansas	TCU	-2
	Louisiana Tech	South Alabama	+5.5
	Arizona	Texas Tech	-6.5
	Oklahoma State	Iowa State	+12
	Arizona State	BYU	-14
	UConn	Air Force	-1.5
	Kansas State (w/o Johnson)	Colorado	-0.5
	New Mexico	San Jose State	+13
	Northwestern	Oregon	-4.5
	Nevada	UCLA	-19
	Oregon State	Fresno State	+3.5
	Ohio State	USC	+8
	Auburn	Ole Miss	-11.5
	Mississippi State	Texas	-17
	Washington	Nebraska	-10.5
	UTEP	North Dakota State	-30.5
	Southern Miss	UL Monroe	+4.5
	Wisconsin	Iowa	-5
	FIU	Liberty	-10.5
	Colorado State	Utah State	-8
	Washington State	San Diego State	+4
	Texas State	Boise State	-15.5
	Northern Illinois	UNLV	-23

Games to consider:

Utah -6.5 (-10) vs. Cincinnati: Tricky spot for both teams here, but at least it’s not a super early kick for Utah. I even downgraded them and still have an edge here; I’m still not very fond of Cincinnati

Western Michigan -14 (-22) vs. Bowling Green: Low total here, so I should probably adjust my spread down a bit, but I really, really think Bowling Green is awful

Kansas +6 (+2) at TCU: I haven’t had a great feel for TCU all season, but they’ve also been a different team week to week

Fresno State +7 (+3.5) vs. Oregon State: I think the market might have peaked on the Beavers

Washington State +3 (-4) vs. San Diego State: It’s been a super strange season for the Aztecs, but losing 56-49 to Colorado State isn’t a great look. I deserved better with Washington State last week, as they were 10-10 against Boise State through three quarters and lost by 21

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.