Every Monday, I’ll cover the key takeaways from the latest NFL and college football games. This week, there’s a lot to talk about. Keep reading for some notes on the Heisman Trophy, key takeaways from Week 2 of the 2025 college football season, NFL Week 1 futures market standouts and a reaction to an insane Sunday Night Football meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. And if you haven’t had enough, our talented team of VSiN hosts and analysts are tackling some of the biggest betting stories coming out of the weekend. So, make sure you check out our live programming for all sorts of high-level analysis.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
Heisman Trophy Odds
- John Mateer (+800)
- Garrett Nussmeier (+850)
- Carson Beck (11-1)
- Arch Manning (13-1)
- LaNorris Sellers (13-1)
- Dante Moore (14-1)
- Jeremiah Smith (16-1)
- Gunner Stockton (17-1)
- Cade Klubnik (18-1)
- Devon Dampier (19-1)
(Top 10 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, accurate as of Monday, September 8th at 12:30 pm ET)
A lot can change in a couple of weeks. DraftKings had Mateer at 25-1 heading into Week 1, but we have quickly seen that his production at Washington State isn’t going anywhere. While Mateer has thrown two picks with Oklahoma, he has also throw for 662 yards with four touchdowns. He also has three rushing touchdowns already. That probably wouldn’t have been impressive if Oklahoma played a cupcake schedule. But Mateer had three total touchdowns against an elite Michigan defense in Week 2, and that was a game that was played with a big national spotlight. Now, the talented dual-threat quarterback is the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.
I have a few plays in this market already, as I backed Nussmeier, Tommy Castellanos, Jayden Maiava and Marcel Reed before the year. And I’d be lying if I said I’m not worried about Mateer messing everything up. But before you start throwing money on 10-1 odds (available at several shops) for Mateer, I should mention that Oklahoma will face Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU in eight of its final nine games. And while that does mean Mateer will have opportunities to win voters over, it also means he could have some bad games. The Sooners might also pick up three or four losses. That would significantly hurt his case.
I will say: I think there’s still some meat on the bone with some of my pre-season picks. I wouldn’t be rushing to add Nussmeier at the current number, but Castellanos isn’t a bad play at 25-1, Reed is intriguing at 40-1 and Maiava isn’t a bad option at 30-1. Castellanos led Florida State to a big win over Alabama, then he followed it up by putting up big numbers against East Texas A&M. It’s clear he’s a great fit for Gus Malzahn’s offense. Meanwhile, Reed is up to 509 yards with seven touchdowns and no picks through the air, and he also has 105 yards and a touchdown on the ground. As long as he stays healthy — which is a big “if” considering he’s already banged up — he’s going to be a flat-out star this year. And Maiava is already up to 707 passings yards with six touchdowns and no picks as the new operator of Lincoln Riley’s Heisman factory of an offense.
Two other players worth mentioning are Dampier and Joey Aguilar. A lot of my VSiN colleagues are on the Dampier train, and the Utah quarterback has already totaled six touchdowns in two games as the engine of a new-look, high-powered Utes offense. He’s absolutely electric with the ball on his hands, and Utah offensive coordinator Jason Beck, who was with Dampier at New Mexico, knows how to put high-percentage throws on the table for him. And Aguilar, once the starter at Appalachian State, is pushing the buttons for Josh Heupel’s Tennessee offense. Through two weeks, Aguilar has thrown for 535 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions for a Volunteers squad that has scored 117 points. He’s making it so that nobody in Tennessee will ever say Nico Iamaleava’s name again — if they were able to pronounce it in the first place.
Week 2 College Football Takeaways
I hinted at this after Week 1, but are we sure Florida State isn’t really good? Everybody was quick to dump on Kalen DeBoer and Alabama after the loss in Tallahassee. And, like Brennan Huff’s mom in Step Brothers, I have to admit, for a little while, I sort of joined in. But with Alabama beating UL-Monroe 73-0, and Ty Simpson going 17 for 17 for 226 yards with three touchdowns, things look a little better for the Tide. That’s especially true with the Seminoles earning a 77-3 win over East Texas A&M. Sure, that’s an FCS opponent, but Florida State racked up 729 yards of offense and looked completely dominant. That said, something tells me Alabama isn’t as bad as we first thought, and Mike Norvell’s team could be much better than advertised. We’ll find out more about the former this week. DeBoer and Co. will host a Wisconsin team that has only given up one touchdown this season, and that score probably wouldn’t have happened without a bad Badgers fumble inside their own 20. What’s the point of any of this? Well, I wouldn’t hate plays on Alabama to win the SEC or Florida State to win the ACC. Neither looks much worse than the top-tier programs in its conference.
In other parts of Florida, South Florida proved to be legit. After a 34-7 stomping of Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls went into Gainesville and earned an 18-16 win over the Gators. Of course, the main talking point coming out of that game is that Billy Napier is back on the hot seat. But let’s give USF head coach Alex Golesh, and his team, some flowers. Everybody talked about the South Florida offense coming into the year, as Byrum Brown is one of the most well-known quarterbacks that isn’t currently playing in a Power Four conference. But the defense has allowed only 23 points, despite playing against two teams with College Football Playoff buzz. Now, it’s the Bulls that need that buzz. There’s still a lot of work to do be done, but South Florida is +450 at DK to make the 12-team field. And as long as the Bulls don’t vomit all over themselves in conference play, that seems like a pretty decent value. Let’s see what South Florida does in a road game against Miami this week. The Hurricanes are favored by 16.5 on Saturday, but the Bulls were 18.5-point ‘dogs against the Gators. They won’t be intimidated in what is suddenly a ranked matchup.
One of the other big results was Oregon’s 69-3 pummeling of Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State. That type of final score is usually reserved for a meeting with college football powerhouses and FCS opponents. But this Ducks team is absolutely loaded with talent, and it’s clear they’re not going to take a step back after losing some of the key pieces from last year’s group. Meanwhile, the Cowboys could be on their way to another 3-9 season. But this one was filled with drama because Gundy poked the bear in attacking Dan Lanning in the media before the game. Well, Gundy probably learned his lesson. He needs to keep his mouth closed this season, as he could very well be fighting for his job. He can’t be wasting time showing up to gun fights with a knife — especially when it’s a rubber one.
Let’s also show Illinois some love. Along with the rest of the betting community, I was on Duke +3.5 and felt really good about it. But the Blue Devils turned the ball over five times in that one. They also couldn’t stop Luke Altmyer and the Fighting Illini passing game. In the end, Duke probably feels like that loss was self-inflicted, but Illinois deserves credit for finishing drives and twisting the knife. That’s a road win that should look good for the Illini when the committee is trying to sort out the 12-team field. Perhaps Bret Bielema’s team is worth a look to make the CFP at +475. Illinois’ toughest road games remaining are at Indiana and Washington, and both of those games are gettable. The Illini just need to find a way to win some of the really tough ones (like the Ohio State game) in Champaign, but it’s possible. This is a good football team.
Week 1 NFL Futures Standouts
Most Valuable Player
It’ll be fun to monitor the MVP race all season, but we did see some statements made in Week 1. I’ll get into Ravens-Bills in a bit, but that ended up being a showcase for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who were the two favorites heading into the year. Jackson threw for 209 yards with two touchdowns and no picks, and he also rushed for 70 yards and a score. And he probably should have escaped with a road win, but that wasn’t the way the cookie crumbled. And what has to sting for Jackson is that Allen threw for 394 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he also rushed for two touchdowns. In putting up big numbers and orchestrating the miracle comeback, Allen is now the betting favorite to win this award at +350.
Justin Herbert also announced himself as a contender here. DraftKings had Herbert at 20-1 heading into Week 1, but he’s down to 15-1 after throwing for 318 yards with three touchdowns and no picks — while rushing for 32 yards — in a big win over Kansas City in a standalone Friday game. I have had some concerns with Herbert over the years, but the talent is undeniable. And it kind of feels like that performance was more of a sign of things to come than a one-off. With Keenan Allen looking surprisingly spry with seven catches for 68 yards and a touchdown, this receiving core suddenly looks pretty damn good.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
It’s crazy to be talking about any of this stuff after just one week, and it’s probably crazier to do so with Rookie of the Year. But how can you not shine a light on Emeka Egbuka and Jacory Croskey-Merritt? Egbuka was 16-1 heading into the season, but he’s down to +750 after finishing with 67 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Falcons. He also had the game-winning touchdown catch for the Buccaneers, and it’s clear Baker Mayfield absolutely loves him. As for Croskey-Merritt, not only is the “Bill” thing catching on (which means it isn’t far-fetched for us to start referring to our CEO as Jacory Adee), but he delivered on some of the pre-season hype that was extremely loud in fantasy circles. The 24-year-old rookie rushed 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown, and he looked like the best back on the Washington roster. Croskey-Merritt is now down from 35-1 to 14-1, and he might be one of the better values on the board.
Speaking of values, Jaxson Dart didn’t even have to play a game to move down from 25-1 to 22-1 at DK. Russell Wilson was just atrocious in New York’s loss to Washington, and it seems like Dart time could be coming soon. I actually added some Dart to win OROY at 25-1, as that’s a big number for a starting quarterback.
Ravens-Bills Reaction
This is a tough one for me. I had a pretty big play on the Ravens at -115, and it could end up being the difference between a winning Week 1 and a losing one. Like everybody else that took Baltimore, I felt great about things with 4:48 left in the fourth quarter. At that point in the game, ESPN had the Ravens with a win probability of 99.1%. And it was about that time in which DraftKings had the Bills as high as 40-1 on the live moneyline. From there, everything went wrong for Baltimore, and Allen and the Buffalo offense couldn’t be stopped.
On X, new VSiN on-air contributor Warren Sharp pointed out that only four teams have won since 2000 when trailing by 15+ in the final four minutes of a game. The rest of the teams are 3-2,312.
Without getting too much into what happened in the game, I’ll just say it was a collapse of epic proportions. And there’s a lot of blame to throw around.
Many are ripping John Harbaugh for some of the decisions he made, and he definitely made some questionable ones. Cris Collinsworth questioned Harbaugh’s decision to punt on 4th and 3 on his own side of the field late, and that was a polarizing call from the future Hall-of-Fame coach. I also hated some of Todd Monken’s play-calling on the final drive. The Zay Flowers jet sweep was way too cute and accomplished nothing, and the routes on the third-and-long play right after had to be run beyond the sticks. But I’ll be brave in stealing one of my friend’s opinions (shoutout Ricky), which is that none of this happens without the Derrick Henry fumble. I know it’s cruel to blame somebody that rushed for 169 yards and two touchdowns, as the Ravens wouldn’t have had a lead without him. But losing a few yards on a rush late in the game won’t kill you. What will? Taking a hand off the ball to attempt a stiff arm and coughing up the rock at your own 30.
As far as the future goes, I’m not sure there’s anything very actionable to come out of this one. I think I saw enough to conclude that the Ravens are a little better than the Bills, as they largely dominated a game played in Buffalo. But there’s very little that separates the two, and both of these teams are absolutely incredible offensively. So, over the next few weeks, I’d be looking to see if either franchise makes strides defensively. Whoever looks better on that side of the ball should be the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
