Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 10 college football best bets:
Penn State +20 at Ohio State
This game certainly lost a lot of its luster from the beginning of the season as it was thought to be one of the games of the year in college football. Over the summer, the No. 1 Buckeyes were lined at -4. Now they are nearly three touchdowns at -20 with Penn State being 3-4, including winless in the Big Ten, and having fired James Franklin.
The Nittany Lions should have won at Iowa in their first game under Terry Smith but fell by one (24-25). Freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer was thrown into the fire after Drew Allar’s season-ending injury and he had a rough first start, going 15-for-28 for just 93 yards and throwing two interceptions against a stout Hawkeyes defense. This week, Grunkemeyer goes against the nation’s No. 1 defense; however, he did have a bye week this time around and should be a bit more prepared, considering his first start was after his head coach was fired and various responsibilities were moved around on the staff.
Penn State has lost eight straight in this series and six straight in Columbus. The OT loss to Oregon clearly broke this team and they are 0-4 in the Big Ten by a combined margin of just 13 points. The losses at UCLA and vs. Northwestern were both inexplicable and a large part of the reason that Franklin is no longer employed in Happy Valley. However, Penn State should fight here. This could very well be its ex-officio bowl game. Very few in the college football punditry are talking about this game because it appears to be a foregone conclusion.
Jim Knowles was the defensive coordinator for the Buckeyes national championship team last year and despite how this season has gone, his Penn State group is still a Top 20 national defense (5th against the pass). While Ryan Day and his offensive staff will be familiar with Knowles’ schemes, Knowles is also familiar with Ohio State’s offense.
The Nittany Lions have been one of the nation’s worst ATS teams at 1-6, and Ohio State is the nation’s best at 6-0-1 ATS. Yet there was a little action on Penn State late Thursday afternoon/early Thursday evening. Hmmmmm.
SMU +11.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Despite already having three losses, a return to the College Football Playoff is still not completely out of the question for SMU, who is 3-1 in ACC play, (they could still win the ACC), but they have no more margin for error after being upset at Wake Forest last week (one of our plays in this column). That defeat snapped a winning streak of 20 conference games for the Mustangs.
SMU got caught in a big sandwich spot last week after getting a modicum of revenge against Clemson for the heartbreaking loss in last year’s ACC Championship Game and then having “The U” come to Dallas this week.
Miami QB Carson Beck threw four interceptions, and the Hurricanes were upset at home two weeks ago by Louisville. Last week, Miami got off to a very slow start and were actually tied 7-7 at halftime against Stanford as over 30-point favorites. Then, the Canes put up 35 unanswered points in the second half to win and cover (although they could have taken a knee before scoring the last TD with :26 left).
Mario Cristobal is 6-13 ATS all-time as a favorite in ACC play. The Hurricanes are actually leaving the Sunshine State for the first time this season, and it is now November! This line looks a bit inflated off SMU’s poor performance at Wake Forest last week.
West Virginia +14 -120 at Houston
Last week, we played Houston at Arizona State, and they came out of Tempe with the outright upset victory. The Cougars are just one game out of first place in the Big XII and are certainly in the mix to reach the conference championship game. Willie Fritz has done one of the better coaching jobs in college football with very little fanfare in his second season at Houston.
After last week’s victory, Houston finally got some respect on its name with its first ranking of the season. Now they have expectations already being bowl eligible and hoping for more. While the Cougars are 7-1, it has been largely built facing a weaker schedule with fortuitous situations, including facing Colorado starting a backup QB, playing both Oregon State and Oklahoma State (both without wins against any FBS opponents), and playing a banged-up Arizona State team without several starters, including star WR Jordyn Tyson.
West Virginia is down to its fourth QB with freshman Scotty Fox, but he did throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week and was much improved from his disastrous first start of the season at UCF.
This could be a slow start for Houston with an 11 a.m. CT kickoff. Furthermore, there will certainly be a lot of emotions for the Cougars as this is their first home game since the tragic passing of Kurt Hester, Houston football’s director of strength and performance. Hester passed last Saturday at age 61 with stage IV cancer.
The spot looks easy for Houston against a down Mountaineers club but almost looks too easy with more people paying attention to them now that they are ranked.
Florida +7.5 vs. Georgia
Billy Gonzales has been a Gator through and through, having served on staffs at Florida under Urban Meyer, Dan Mullen, and now the recently fired Billy Napier. Gonzales will serve as interim head coach for the rest of the season. Thus far in the 2025 season interim coaches have gone 6-2 ATS (4-4 SU) in the following game post-termination.
Under Gonzales, the offensive tempo should increase, which could catch a Georgia defense that, while still highly talented, is not nearly as dominant as the Bulldog units in recent years.
Both teams are off the bye, but that week off was likely more beneficial to Florida as it may have allowed them to put new wrinkles in that Georgia has not seen on film.
The Gators will certainly not mail it in and will go all out in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”.
Florida State -10 vs. Wake Forest
Just a little over one month ago, Florida State was unbeaten and had a win over Alabama. They rose to No. 8 in the polls before falling at Virginia, which started a four-game losing streak and an 0-4 record in ACC play.
The Seminoles are off a bye week and certainly the speculation around Mike Norvell’s job status will persist, but they do have QB Tommy Castellanos back after he was knocked out of the game late at Stanford two weeks ago.
Wake Forest upset SMU last week but only scored 13 points in the victory.
Jake Dickert’s team is one game away from bowl eligibility, and the defense has risen to a Top 25 unit. However, they are ranked 129th in the red zone on offense and if Florida State can get a lead, Wake Forest will struggle to come back.
This looks like a spot where a disappointed Seminoles club takes out its frustration and disappointment out on someone.
Quick Hits
New Mexico +4.5 at UNLV
UNLV ranks fifth-worst in FBS, allowing 461.1 ypg and are one of just eight teams in FBS that give up over 200 ypg on the ground.
The Rebels have been very fortunate in several victories, including three weeks ago, when they gave up over 600 yards of offense and 48 points yet still hung on to beat Air Force, 51-48.
Maryland +22 vs. Indiana
As an Indiana University alum, I have greatly enjoyed the “Indiana Two-siers” season. Per ESPN, Indiana now has a 97% chance to make the College Football playoff, the highest of any team, for the second year in a row.
Curt Cignetti has done a great job keeping his team focused on the task at hand and “ripping off the rearview mirror” from the previous week. He will be attempting to do that again as the Hoosiers blitzed UCLA last week, 56-6.
Maryland, for its part, is off the bye that was much needed after three heartbreaking close losses vs. Washington, vs. Nebraska, and at UCLA. It was not just the typical coach-speak when Cignetti praised the Terps, who have been a little better than its 4-3 record.
Mike Locksley may not be the best in-game coach, but he has long been considered an elite recruiter, and his team has talent and athleticism. The Terps did hang in a 14-point loss against the Hoosiers in Bloomington last year.
Purdue +21.5 at Michigan
Purdue lost a heartbreaker to Rutgers by turning it over in its own territory in the final minute as QB Ryan Browne caught his own deflected pass and then fumbled to lead to a 27-24 victory for the Scarlet Knights.
Michigan got backdoored in its win over Michigan State for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, but they were not covering the number for most of the game anyway.
The Wolverines are a slower tempo and more run-heavy team, so it is hard for them to get margin and will be harder to do so against a Boilermaker team that is still a bit short on talent to compete in the Big Ten each week, but Barry Odom does have them playing hard every week.
South Carolina +12.5 at Mississippi
Ole Miss is now through its hard part of the schedule as the Rebels split its two toughest road games with a loss at Georgia and a victory at Oklahoma last weekend. Now the Rebels do not have to leave the Magnolia State for the month of November with three consecutive home games (South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, bye week, at Mississippi State).
Lane Kiffin’s club is now 70% to make the College Football Playoff per ESPN. The question is whether Ole Miss can withstand prosperity? The path is clear for them, but the team will be dealing with constant rumors around Kiffin and whether he will stay in Oxford or go to LSU, Florida, or somewhere else.
The Gamecocks could be reeling off losing at home to Alabama in a game where they held the lead in the fourth quarter. However, Ole Miss could be a bit flat in this spot.
Best of the Rest
UL Lafayette/South Alabama Under 53.5
Oklahoma +3 at Tennessee
Oklahoma/Tennessee Under 55.5
NC State +6 vs. Georgia Tech
For more college football Week 10 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 10 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
