Week 13 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 13 college football best bets:
Hawaii +3 at UNLV
The battle for the Golden Pineapple is an elimination game for the Mountain West Championship Game, which occurs in Las Vegas on Friday night with Hawaii making a trip to the mainland to face UNLV. Hawaii comes in off the bye week, while UNLV, once again, had some good fortune in a 2OT victory over Utah State.
Utah State missed three field goals and an extra point and allowed UNLV to pull yet another escape.
The Rainbow Warriors have the better defense by 100 yards allowed per game. Plus, Hawaii has scored 30+ in five straight games and should get at least that amount against a permissible Rebels defense.
For the Rebels, RB Jai’Den Thomas (780 rushing yards, 173 receiving yards) is also questionable with a hamstring injury. Without him last week, UNLV only averaged 3.9 yards per carry.
The Rebels have been sucking out on the river all season long. This is the spot where they don’t catch the card they need.
Rutgers +33 at Ohio State
What better way to start Saturday than to go against the No. 1 team in the CFP rankings who is 8-1-1 ATS on the season.
Rutgers comes in off the bye at 5-5 and needs to do the impossible this week in Columbus or beat Penn State at home next week to get bowl eligible.
On the other side, Ohio State has its game with the “school up North” next week. Michigan defeated the Buckeyes in each of the last four years. While the Buckeyes are 10-1 SU, they are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 in the game before Michigan.
Greg Schiano is 16-8-2 ATS as a road underdog since he returned to chop wood at Rutgers for a second act. Schiano and Day have history as Schiano was the associate head coach at Ohio State from 2016-2018 and greatly helped Day when he was the interim coach during Urban Meyer’s three-game suspension in 2018. Day referred to Schiano as one of the classiest men in football. However, they also got into it after the 2022 game when Ohio State ran a fake punt up 49-10 in the fourth quarter, and that caused a fracas on the Ohio State bench as Rutgers had a late hit on the punter out of bounds.
While Day is 40-17 ATS as a home favorite and does not exactly let up on the opposition, there is a possibility that he exercises some discretion in terms of the use of his stars, particularly WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate and RB CJ Donaldson, who are all battling injuries.
Rutgers will fight for 60 minutes.
Charlotte +44 at Georgia
Unfortunately, the week before Thanksgiving has given us an annual tradition of SEC schools playing creampuffs in buy games. Hopefully that changes with the conference schedule going to nine games next year.
Charlotte is 1-9 and one of the FBS’s worst teams. However, so was UMass in this spot last year and covered as 42-point underdogs (21-59). In fact, Kirby Smart is 0-15 ATS as a favorite of more than 38 points, including 0-2 this season with victories of 42-3 and 28-3 over Marshall and Austin Peay.
Georgia is done with its SEC conference schedule as they have this game and the “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” rivalry game with Georgia Tech next week (last year’s game went 8 OT in a 44-42 Georgia victory).
In order to make the SEC Championship Game, Georgia needs the following:
- Auburn beats Alabama OR
- Texas beats Texas A&M OR
- Ole Miss beats Mississippi State. Georgia wins three-way tie with Alabama and Ole Miss based on conference opponent winning percentage.
However the SEC Championship picture plays out, Georgia looks fairly secure to make the CFP as they currently rank No. 4 and would lock in a berth with a victory over the Yellow Jackets next week.
This is a “just get through it” game for the Bulldogs here.
LSU -21.5 vs. Western Kentucky
The Tigers escaped against Arkansas last week and now have their home finale this week.
This is also the LSU players’ last chance to send interim head coach Frank Wilson out as a winner.
Western Kentucky has a huge game next week vs. Jacksonville State to determine its Conference USA Championship fate. How are the Hilltoppers going to approach this game? If this game were the season opener or early in the season, it is reasonable to expect that they would be laser-focused on winning in Baton Rouge.
Perhaps LSU is looking more towards playing spoiler at Oklahoma next week, but it might just want to take out some frustration from this season on an overmatched Western Kentucky club that is taking a big step up in class. WKU has played an easier schedule, and the only non-conference opponent of note, Toledo, beat them 45-21.
Geaux Tigers!
QUICK HITS
James Madison -13.5 vs. Washington State
Washington State took No. 4 Ole Miss and No. 18 Virginia to the limit on the road, losing by 3 and 3 points, respectively. Now, they are getting almost 2 TDs at James Madison?
JMU is still fighting for respect to get a potential Group of 5 spot in the CFP and have been rolling over teams.
The No. 21 (AP Poll) Dukes won 58-10 last week against Appalachian State (still running tempo up 44-3 in the fourth), 35-23 at Marshall, 52-20 at Texas State, and 63-27 over Old Dominion in their last four games.
Wazzu is a step up from those teams, but the Dukes are not a team to get in front of at the moment.
UAB +22 vs. South Florida
South Florida’s CFP and American Championship Game hopes ended last week with a loss at Navy.
While the Bulls are certainly explosive offensively (4th in total offense, 5th in scoring offense), it is fair to wonder if the focus is still there after starting their season with upset wins over Boise State and Florida.
UAB continues to play hard under interim coach Alex Mortensen and they have a good enough offense (407.4 ypg, 26.8 ppg) to hang within this number.
USF head coach Alex Golesh is also a hot name for a potential Power 4 gig due to the team’s offensive prowess. Is he completely focused on the task at hand here?
Syracuse Team Total Under 7.5 at Notre Dame
Syracuse scholarship lacrosse player Joey Filardi is back at QB for the Orange. It did not go well last time for him when he started vs. North Carolina on Halloween night. In fact, it was downright scary as he went 4-for-18 for 39 yards and was sacked three times. Syracuse had just 152 yards of total offense on 50 plays from scrimmage.
Notre Dame is certainly motivated as the Irish have been hearing the doubters regarding its playoff status.
Temple +9.5 vs. Tulane
The Owls are 5-5 and need one more win for bowl eligibility – either this week or next week at North Texas.
Tulane being ranked No. 22 in the CFP rankings as the highest Group of 5 team was a mild surprise in Tuesday’s CFP Rankings despite still needing help to make the American Championship Game.
Penn State -7.5 vs. Nebraska
The market has come in with Nebraska all week, but the Huskers may get a motivated Penn State team here.
The Nittany Lions ended a six-game losing streak last week winning at Michigan State after the heartbreaking loss to Indiana.
Penn State may be 4-6 and are looking for a new head coach, but Penn State still has Penn State talent as they showed taking the Indiana “Two-siers” to the limit.
This is also Senior Day in Happy Valley and this group has gone winless at home in Big Ten play this season. This is the last chance to take out some frustration from a disappointing season.
BEST OF THE REST
North Carolina +7 vs. Duke
Missouri State/Kennesaw State Under 56
Kentucky/Vanderbilt Over 53.5
Florida +4 vs. Tennessee
For more college football Week 13 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 13 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
