Week 5 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 5 college football best bets:
Virginia +7 vs. Florida State
After an impressive upset victory over Alabama in the season opener, Florida State has two lopsided wins over FCS East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10). The Seminoles were unranked to begin the season. Now they are all the way up to No. 8 in the polls, and some even rank them inside the top 5.
While the roster has improved as well as the coordinators (Gus Malzahn – OC; Tony White – DC) and they probably were not as bad as last year’s 2-10 record, it appears that so many are convinced that the Seminoles are all the way back to what they were two seasons ago when they went 13-0 in the regular season.
Furthermore, Florida State will get Miami next week at Doak Campbell in what looks like the main event of the Week 6 card. First things first though with a trip to Virginia.
UVA has upgraded at QB with North Texas transfer Chandler Morris (70.8% completions, 1050 yards, 8 TD- 1 INT). The Cavaliers are No. 5 nationally in total offense (565 ypg) while Florida State is No. 1 (629 ypg). However, FSU QB Thomas Castellanos has been a bit limited in practice this week with an ankle injury.
The Seminoles are much improved, but they still look a bit inflated here in their first road game against a sneaky improved opponent and before facing their biggest rival.
UCLA +7 -120 at Northwestern
UCLA is off a bye week that was much needed after being embarrassed 35-10 at home by New Mexico. After that loss, an obviously overwhelmed Deshaun Foster was let go as head coach. Tim Skipper will serve as the interim for the rest of the season. This is not the first time that Skipper has been in this situation, as he was in the same role at Fresno State in 2023, coaching the Bulldogs to a New Mexico Bowl win, and then served as the acting head coach for the 2024 season in Fresno as well.
Anyone would be an upgrade over Foster, who you cannot blame for taking the job and wanting to restore his alma mater to glory but was not experienced enough to be the head coach of a major program, particularly one that is still getting acclimated to the Big Ten.
While not winless like the Bruins, Northwestern, also off a bye week, is just 1-2 with a victory over FCS Western Illinois. SMU transfer QB Preston Stone has struggled with six interceptions in three games and has been sacked six times. Stone also does not have much to work with at receiver. Top RB Cam Porter is also now out for the season.
Although UCLA has hit rock bottom, it is a big ask for Northwestern to get margin on just about anyone in the Power 4.
Washington +8.5 vs. Ohio State
No. 1 Ohio State takes to the road for the first time this season with freshman QB Julian Sayin making his first road start at Washington.
Sayin still leads a talented group, and the Buckeyes never lack talent; however, there are three new starters up front. The new backfield of CJ Donaldson and James Peoples is a bit of a downgrade from Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson. Ohio State WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate matchup with a pair of 6-4 corners – Tacario Davis (questionable and sat last week with a rib injury) and Ephesians Prysock.
Ohio State’s defense, particularly its secondary, looked great in the opener against Texas, so they do deserve some credit. However, Arch Manning really struggled to make plays and is still early in his development. Even with Manning’s struggles, Texas outgained Ohio State 336 to 203 and still had a chance to tie the game at the end. Demond Williams Jr will present a bigger challenge through the air and with the running game, along with his backfield running mate Jonah Coleman. Texas had success running the ball against a brand-new Ohio State DL. Washington should be able to do the same behind an improved OL anchored by Kansas State transfer LT Carver Willis.
The Huskies have won 22 straight games in Seattle and clearly have market respect as the number opened 10 earlier in the week.
Penn State -3.5 vs. Oregon
Penn State was my prediction and bet to win the College Football Playoff this season.
The Nittany Lions are 3-0 against subpar competition, but they have been preparing for and have had this matchup circled vs. Oregon, a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, since spring practice.
Oregon certainly looked impressive in a 4-0 start, but that was also against subpar competition. Yet, the Ducks seem to be getting more of the benefit of the doubt in the leadup to this game than Penn State. Of course, that is partially due to ‘Big Game James’ becoming ‘Small Game James’ against the elite competition, where he is 5-12 ATS against the Top 5. Also, Penn State is 0-3 ATS to start the season, even though they were backdoored twice on the final drive with defensive reserves on the field.
It should be different this time around for a couple of reasons. One, this is a tougher scheduling spot for the Ducks. Oregon had to open two weeks ago in Evanston for its Big Ten opener at Northwestern and then travel back home to face its in-state rival Oregon State, and now back east to face Penn State in the ‘White-Out’ game. Meanwhile, Penn State is off a bye week.
Furthermore, Penn State has shown very little in its first three games, so one would expect Oregon to see new looks both offensively and defensively. Jim Knowles was able to stifle Will Stein’s offense last year in the Rose Bowl when he was the DC at Ohio State. Now he is at Penn State and Oregon QB Dante Moore will have to prove it here in his first true road test.
If Penn State gets a lead, they can run the ball with the nation’s best backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Oregon can be had defensively against the run with essentially a new DL against Penn State’s experienced OL.
Penn State QB Drew Allar left a bad impression at the end of last season with a poor performance against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. He and his teammates are eager to make amends.
This is a cheap price, and I personally laid ML earlier this week. Although the 3s have disappeared, this is still a bet for me at -3.5.
Colorado +7 vs. BYU
Last time these two teams met was in last season’s Alamo Bowl, where BYU defeated Colorado, 36-14, in what was the final game for both Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter in Buffaloes uniforms.
Deion Sanders has dismissed any payback or revenge talk this week, but do not believe him. He has a long memory and certainly never forgets any perceived slights or legitimate defeats.
BYU passed its first road test last week at East Carolina in a 34-13 victory. However, that game was much closer than the final score indicated. Trailing 6-3 late in the second quarter, ECU QB Katin Houser was picked off at the BYU 6-yard line. After the Pirates got a stop, they were pinned on their own 1-yard line with under a minute to go in the half. Inexplicably, Houser threw a pick-six at his own 1, and the game was essentially decided right before halftime. BYU only held a 418-404 yardage advantage and yet won by 21 due to a +2 turnover margin.
Colorado won 37-20 at home over Wyoming, but Liberty transfer QB Kaidon Salter won his job back and had his best game to date in Boulder, going 18/28 for 304 yards and three TD passes plus 86 yards and a TD on the ground.
Despite the Colorado program being overhyped under ‘Coach Prime’, Sanders has been effective in the underdog role (9-4 ATS overall) and especially as a home underdog, going 4-1 ATS.
Quick Hits
Florida Atlantic +14, Under 62.5 vs. Memphis
Memphis trailed 28-10 to Arkansas last week and rallied for a 32-31 upset victory. Now the Tigers take to the road to face Florida Atlantic, who is off a bye.
FAU has thrown nine interceptions against the two FBS opponents they have faced – six at Maryland and three at FIU.
First-year head coach Zach Kittley brought QB Caden Veitkamp with him from Western Kentucky. The Air Raid offense has certainly had its growing pains early on, but the Owls are off a bye week and catching Memphis at a good time off a monster win against an SEC opponent.
Northern Illinois +3 (-120) vs. San Diego State
San Diego State shut out Cal last week as 14-point underdogs. Now they get the road favorite role at Northern Illinois.
This looks like a sell spot here for San Diego State and a drop-in-class for Northern Illinois who has already played Maryland and Mississippi State on the road.
Utah State +23 at Vanderbilt
There was no let up from Vanderbilt last week after they pulled the mild upset at South Carolina two weeks ago. Vandy had a revenge spot against Georgia State last week and hung 70 on them.
Last week was not the dead spot, but this one might be, considering Vanderbilt has the following schedule over the next month:
At Alabama
Vs. LSU
Vs. Missouri
At Texas
Vs. Auburn.
Utah State and Bronco Mendenhall did cover the number in College Station at Texas A&M earlier this season.
Best of the Rest
Colorado State -5.5 vs. Washington State
Kansas State -6 vs. Central Florida
Arizona/Iowa State Under 49.5
For more college football Week 5 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 5 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
