San Diego State vs. UConn March Madness Preview and Prediction

In the No. 5 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament East Region, the San Diego State Aztecs face the Connecticut Huskies in Sweet 16 action.

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How to Watch San Diego State vs. UConn

When: 7:39 pm ET on Thurday, March 28th

Where: TD Garden in Boston, MA

Watch: TBS/truTV

Odds for San Diego State vs. UConn

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: UConn -10

Total: 135

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | San Diego State vs. UConn Matchup

East Region No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs

Some of the key contributors from last year’s championship runner-up are back for the class of the Mountain West. The Aztecs are led by forward Jaedon LeDee, who nearly averaged a double-double this season and is one of the smoothest scoring bigs in the nation. San Diego State also has guards Micah Parrish, Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell back from last season. All of them are capable of having their nights, and the same goes for USC transfer Reese Waters. But the Aztecs are mostly dangerous because of their defense. For the third year in a row, Brian Dutcher has a team that is top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aztecs are going to try and smother opponents in the tournament, and they’ll then hope an average offense can be just good enough to get the job done. 

East Region No. 1 UConn Huskies

Last year’s championship-winning UConn team finished the season third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. This year’s Huskies team has a nearly identical statistical profile. That gives UConn legitimate hope that it can be the first team to go back-to-back since Florida did it in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies are as well coached as any team in the nation, with Dan Hurley being a master motivator and an Xs-and-Os tactician. UConn also has two potential lottery picks in Stephon Castle and 7-foot-2 big man Donovan Clingan. On top of that, the Huskies have experienced players like Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban.

San Diego State vs. UConn Preview & Prediction

When the Selection Committee put Cinderella Final Four participant Florida Atlantic and national runner-up San Diego State in the same pod of the East Region with UConn, you just knew that the Huskies would face one of the two in the Sweet 16. As it turned out, we’ll get a 2023 National Championship rematch in the Sweet 16, as the Aztecs and Huskies will run it back.

The stakes aren’t quite as high here, as there won’t be any net-cutting after the game, but the game does represent the chance to go to the Elite Eight. UConn looks to be on a path of destruction through the NCAA Tournament once again. After winning every game by 13 or more points last season en route to the school’s first title since 2014, the two data points for the Huskies in this year’s tourney have been wins by 39 and 17 over Stetson and Northwestern, respectively.

UConn was up 40-18 at the break against the Wildcats, so they really put it in cruise control in the second half, otherwise the outcome would have been even worse. They led by as many as 28 in the second half. UConn was 3-of-22 from 3 in that Northwestern game and still won by a bunch, so that’s a pretty terrifying thought for the remaining teams in the field.

San Diego State had a tough opener against UAB and failed to cover the spread in the four-point win, but they rallied and played an excellent game against Yale in the second round. Yale, though, is not UConn. Not all of the faces are the same as we saw in last year’s Natty, but UConn won 76-59 and trailed for the last time in a 10-8 game. They ultimately led by as many as 16 in the first half and cruised to victory.

Donovan Clingan only played 10 minutes in that game for UConn. Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo are gone, but many would argue that this Huskies group is better than last year’s and the full-season stats and metrics would support that notion, as UConn’s metrics soared with what they did in the NCAA Tournament.

We’ll see if Brian Dutcher has a different plan this time around, but this is a lesser version of SDSU and one that ranked in the 300s in 3P%, unlike last year’s team, which was around the national average and also a little better on defense.

Estimated Score: Coming soon.

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

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