New York Yankees 2024 preview
With the acquisition of Juan Soto, the New York Yankees now have two of the five most productive hitters in baseball over the last three seasons using wRC+ and two of the 10 most valuable position players using FanGraphs’ calculation of WAR. Will that be enough to stop the World Series drought before it reaches 15 seasons?
It certainly can’t hurt to have a player of Soto’s caliber in a ballpark that should play well for the left-handed slugger. The less-heralded addition of durable right-hander Marcus Stroman to a rotation that was battered by injuries last season can’t hurt either. Whether or not it all comes together in a very difficult division remains to be seen, but the Yankees are better than last season and should be a whole lot more of a factor.
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Last season’s 82-win output for the team was the fewest wins in a non-shortened season (strike or COVID) since 1992. The Yankees have only missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons once since the 1992-93 season, as they were well on their way to making it in 1994 before baseball abruptly stopped.
This team is set up for a good season and is the favorite to win the deep AL East, but it wouldn’t be a present-day Yankees season without some concerns.
2024 New York Yankees Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 29)
World Series: +1000
AL Pennant: +475
AL East: +165
Win Total: 93.5 (-105/-115)
Make Playoffs: Yes -300 / No +250
New York Yankees Preview: Offense
Aaron James Judge remains the biggest key, literally and figuratively, to New York’s season. Soto is an elite player and an on-base machine, but the Yankees offense goes as Judge goes and Judge goes a long way when he’s not hurt. He was only able to play in 106 games last season and failed to live up to the insane .311/.425/.686 slash line with a 209 wRC+ that he posted while setting the AL record for home runs in 2022. But, those numbers were legendary and likely unrepeatable.
Instead, all Judge did was bang out 37 homers in 51 fewer games and post a 179 wRC+ that was just one point shy of Shohei Ohtani for the best in baseball. Judge actually didn’t play enough to count as “Qualified” (3.1 PA/game), as he fell 44 short, but he still had excellent numbers and was well above his 2021 pace.
But, the toe injury is said to be chronic and lingering and that it will require ongoing treatment, at least for a while. Yankees fans probably don’t expect much from Giancarlo Stanton anymore, but the Yankees were at a real disadvantage when both guys were out of the lineup and it was clear and obvious when Judge was.
That’s where Soto comes in, and he has comically-good numbers in his career. Over six seasons, he’s amassed 28.4 fWAR, owns a .284/.421/.524 slash with a 154 wRC+, and most importantly, he’s had at least 654 plate appearances in every season except for his 2018 rookie year and the 2020 COVID year.
Nothing against the Anthony Rizzos, Brett Gardners, DJ LeMahieus, and Aaron Hickses of the world, but Soto batting in front of Judge makes a world of difference. That .421 OBP means he’s gotten on base in over 42% of his plate appearances. Judge has 572 RBI in his career and 257 of them are from driving himself in.
Even with Judge putting up some big numbers, the Yankees were 29th in BA, 27th in OBP, and 22nd in SLG, so that gives you an idea of what the supporting cast did. The only above average regulars by wRC+ were Gleyber Torres (123) and LeMahieu (101). Rizzo was a league average hitter (100).
So, that begs the question – is Soto enough? Maybe Alex Verdugo will contribute a bit. Maybe Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez, who had Tommy John surgery and won’t be back until at least June, can blossom and develop, but this entire offense appears to come down to the health of Judge and the upgrade of Soto.
New York Yankees Preview: Pitching
Silver linings were few and far between for the Yankees last season, but two of them were Clarke Schmidt and Michael King. King was ultimately shipped off in the Soto deal, but Schmidt was second among starters in fWAR. Carlos Rodon, Jhony Brito, and Luis Severino combined for -1.2 fWAR in 45 starts. King was actually third in starter fWAR and only made nine starts. Domingo German was fourth. He’s gone as well.
So, the Yankees have revamped the rotation in the sense that they’ll look to rely more on Rodon and Nestor Cortes, who was limited to 12 starts himself. Gerrit Cole remains a frontline fixture, but the group behind him is comparable to walking through a minefield with your eyes closed.
Cole had a 2.63 ERA with a 3.16 FIP in 209 innings and won the first Cy Young Award of his career. Schmidt paid homage to Charles Dickens’ classic “A Tale of Two Cities”, which opens with the line, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”. Schmidt had a tale of two seasons. He finished with a 4.64 ERA and a 4.42 FIP, which is hardly impressive on the surface. However, he had a 6.30 ERA with a 4.66 FIP from April 1 through May 14 and then a 4.08 ERA with a 4.34 FIP over his final 23 starts. He ran out of gas late in the year, but had a sub-4 ERA and a sub-4 FIP over 19 starts from May 19 through September 6.
Earth-shattering? Nah, but he made 32 starts. Cole made 33. Ten other starters combined for the other games. Cortes wasn’t really a factor with a 4.97 ERA and a 4.49 FIP off of a stellar 2022 season with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.13 FIP in 158.1 innings. His health and a bounce back from Rodon would absolutely take this rotation up several notches.
The question is – do you want to bet on that? Is that something you are comfortable with from a futures or season win total standpoint? In a perfect world, the Yankees look every bit the World Series threat that their 10/1 price implies. But, Cortes has only worked over 100 innings once. I imagine an MRI of Rodon’s left arm looks like a couple pounds of 80/20 with his injury history. He’s worked at least 130 innings twice since 2016.
This is a high-floor team, as we saw last season when they still finished above .500 in spite of everything. The bullpen once again looks good, anchored by Clay Holmes and others, including southpaws Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez, who are nice grabs from the Dodgers.
New York Yankees Player to Watch
SP Marcus Stroman
I deliberately waited to address Stroman until now. The Yankees want durability out of Stroman, who has had a couple of things pop up the last two seasons, but has made at least 25 starts in six of the last seven seasons. He’s got a 3.65 ERA and a 3.63 FIP for his career over more than 1,300 innings. He’s an extreme ground ball guy who shouldn’t be bothered by how small Yankee Stadium is and there’s hope that his walk rate will positively regress back towards his career norms after a career-high 9.0% BB% last season.
The burning question for me is wondering whether or not the soon-to-be 33-year-old is breaking down or if it has been some bad luck. He’s a diminutive guy by pitcher standards at 5-foot-7 and around 170 pounds. It takes a lot of force on the body to throw and he had a couple of 200-inning seasons early in his career for the Blue Jays in his age-25 and age-26 seasons. If he’s another one that will spend a lot of time in the trainer’s room, that will hurt the Yankees a lot.
New York Yankees Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
I typically wind up with 6-8 season win total bets I really like. This won’t be one of them. If the rotation finds a way to stay healthy and the Yankees can get the customary 200 IP from Cole and get somewhere around 150 from everybody else, this team’s ceiling is unquestionably high. (There is obviously a chance that they still sign Blake Snell.)
While that seems rather unlikely and would force me to lean towards the Under, this team does have arguably the best (at least most reliable) pitcher in the game in Cole and, like I mentioned, two of the 10 best hitters in the game. That covers up A LOT. I still think they’re more likely to come up short of their goals than surpass them, but I’m not confident enough in that to make a wager.
As a side note, it is FASCINATING to see the team with the highest win total in the American League still +165 to win the division. The AL “bEast” should live up to its moniker.
Lean: Under 93.5
Get all of our preseason coverage in the 2024 MLB Betting Guide.
