NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

It feels like the time finally has arrived for Josh Allen to get the Bills over the hump in the playoffs. The problem for Allen, who played well in two postseason losses to the Chiefs, is that opposing quarterback Patrick Mahomes has played just a little better.

When the teams meet Sunday night in Buffalo, Allen will need to do a lot to slay the dragon. A Kansas City defensive front that collapses the pocket will put pressure on Allen, who’s got to make big-time plays with his arm and legs while also making fewer mistakes than Mahomes.

 

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One advantage Mahomes might have is he’s facing a Buffalo defense that’s banged up with several injuries, especially in the secondary. Mahomes was outstanding in a wild-card win against the Dolphins, passing for 262 yards without a turnover or sack, and the Kansas City offense displayed more balance by also rushing for 147 yards in the bitter cold.

Rashee Rice, a second-round pick from SMU last year, has emerged as the No. 1 receiver that Mahomes was missing for most of the season. Rice torched Miami for eight receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. The Bills must respect Rice, and that should open the middle of the field for tight end Travis Kelce, who had seven catches for 71 yards last week. (My only prop play on this game is Kelce Over 62.5 receiving yards, the number posted at Circa Sports.)

Allen and Mahomes will trade shots and no outcome will be too surprising, but this is a duel that seems destined to be decided late in the fourth quarter. This is Mahomes’ first career road playoff game, but he’s 8-1-1 ATS as a ‘dog in career, so I’m taking the points. The line is likely to hit 3 before kickoff, but if not, I’ll buy it to +3 at -125 or -130.

Pick: Chiefs +3

Texans (+9.5) over Ravens

Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud could be in for a rude awakening against a Ravens defense that will bring intense pressure. Stroud passed for 242 yards, but he was sacked five times in a 25-9 loss at Baltimore in Week 1. While the Texans are a different and much more confident team now, the end result might not be that much different.

I’m siding with the underdog partly because quarterback Lamar Jackson and many of the Ravens’ starters have been off for nearly three weeks. Rest can be great, but too much of it can lead to a slow start. Jackson, who’s 0-2 in the divisional round and has only one career playoff win, is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 points or more in the past three seasons. It’s wise to wait for +10 to surface, but if not, I’ll buy this to +10 at -125.

Ravens–49ers moneyline parlay (-200)

It’s doubtful that either No. 1 seed loses, especially San Francisco, so I’ll parlay the favorites on the moneyline instead of using teaser options. This is also a hedge on the Texans bet in case they get blown out in Saturday’s first game.

It’s interesting to note these divisional-round trends: The No. 1 seeds are 35% ATS, including 10-25-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less, over the past two decades; also, both 1-seeds have covered only twice in two decades and went 0-2 ATS eight times in that span.

Buccaneers (+6) over Lions

Something about quarterback Jared Goff and the Lions indicates this game is not going to be easy. Detroit had a difficult time putting away the Rams in a 24-23 win a week ago, and it’s tough to trust the mistake-prone Goff and coach Dan Campbell in a high-stakes game involving this much pressure.

In terms of the matchup, the Detroit defense is soft in the secondary, which the Rams’ Matthew Stafford exploited by passing for 367 yards. Tampa Bay has the potential to do similar damage. It should not be forgotten that Mayfield passed for 381 yards and four touchdowns as the Buccaneers beat the Packers 34-20 at Lambeau Field in Week 15. I missed the +7 when it briefly surfaced this week, but I still like the ‘dog to put a scare into the Lions.

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