The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, April 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, INDIANA, BOSTON, MEMPHIS, PHOENIX

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SAN ANTONIO, UTAH

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, SAN ANTONIO, MEMPHIS, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, BOSTON, MEMPHIS, MIAMI

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, SAN ANTONIO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY ML, TORONTO ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, NEW YORK ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, MILWAUKEE ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, LA CLIPPERS ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-IND, SAS-NOP, GSW-DAL, UTA-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): POR-WSH, OKC-IND, UTA-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ORL-CHA, PLAY UNDER in SAS-NOP, PLAY OVER in DET-MEM, PLAY OVER in MIA-HOU, PLAY OVER in NYK-CHI, PLAY OVER in MIN-PHX

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive NBA betting trend patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 60-42 SU and 65-34-1 ATS (65.7%) versus teams playing a 3rd Game in 4 Days over the last three seasons.
4/5: CHICAGO vs. New York
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1.5 vs NYK)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Days Rest were 35-16 SU and 33-16-2 ATS (67.3%) hosting teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game last season.
4/5: CHICAGO vs. New York
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1.5 vs NYK)

* Home teams playing on 3+ Day Rest were 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS (91.7%) over last two seasons hosting teams playing a 3rd Road in 4 Days game.
4/5: CHICAGO vs. New York
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-1.5 vs NYK)

* Under the total was 96-65-1 (59.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
4/5: Under the total in WASHINGTON-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 223.5)

* Over the total is 10-3-1 (76.9%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on 3+ Days Rest and the road team was playing in a H2A b2b scenario.
4/5: Over the total in CHICAGO-NEW YORK
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 212)

* Under the total is 16-11 (59.3%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
4/5: Under the total in HOUSTON-MIAMI
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

MILWAUKEE has struggled in the ordinary One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 25-20 SU but 17-28 ATS (37.8%).
4/5 vs. Toronto
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-15 vs TOR)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 33-12 SU and 32-13 ATS (71.1%).
4/5 at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-12 at CHA)

TORONTO has gone Over the total in 15 of the last 16 schedule spots when playing consecutive road games.
4/5 at Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY OVER in TOR-MIL (o/u at 228)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 29-16 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last three seasons
4/5: Under the total in ORLANDO-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 205.5)

* DALLAS is 14-12 SU and 6-18 ATS at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario over the last three seasons
4/5: FADE DALLAS vs Atlanta
System Match: FADE DALLAS ATS (-5 vs GSW)

* HOUSTON is 14-40 SU and 19-34 ATS at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
4/5: Fade HOUSTON vs. Miami
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (+2.5 vs MIA)

* INDIANA is 57-38 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
4/5: Over the total in INDIANA-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)

* MINNESOTA is 19-6 Over the total on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario over the last two seasons
4/5: Over the total in PHOENIX-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 216.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five different NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 91-57 SU and 88-57-3 ATS (60.7%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY PORTLAND (+2 at WSH), PLAY DETROIT (+1 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 163-31 SU but just 83-108-3 ATS (43.5%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (*if they become a double-digit favorite vs SAC, -9.5 currently)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-64 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 153-126 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 203-143 (58.7%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ORL-CHA (o/u at 205.5), PLAY OVER in TOR-MIL (o/u at 228), PLAY UNDER in SAS-NOP (o/u at 219), PLAY OVER in UTA-LAC (o/u at 223.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 192-117 SU but 137-167-5 ATS (45.1%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32-1 ATS.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs SAC)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 241-190 SU but 184-236-11 ATS (43.8%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-9.5 vs. SAC), FADE MEMPHIS (-1 vs. DET)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 225-239 SU and 206-253-5 ATS (44.9%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE PHOENIX (-4 vs MIN)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 233-226 SU and 207-239-11 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+4 at PHX)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 121-148 SU and 120-142-7 ATS (45.8%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+4 at PHX)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine different NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-68 SU and 68-56-3 ATS (54.8%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+12.5 at LAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 186-233 ATS (44.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 25-107 SU and 56-73-3 ATS (43.4%).
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+15 at MIL), FADE UTAH (+12.5 at LAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +2.5 (+4.1), 2. TORONTO +15 (+1.1), 3. NEW YORK +1.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+1.6), 2(tie). NEW ORLEANS -11.5 (+1.3) and MEMPHIS -1 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +2.5 (+3.4), 2. TORONTO +15 (+3.1), 3. SACRAMENTO +9.5 (+2.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -11.5 (+3.1), 2. MEMPHIS -1 (+0.8), 3. CHICAGO -1.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-DAL OVER 225.5 (+3.2), 2. SAS-NOP OVER 219 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-CHA UNDER 205.5 (-2.6), 2. POR-WSH UNDER 224 (-2.0), 3. OKC-IND UNDER 234.5 (-1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +2.5 (+4.4), 2. PORTLAND +3 (+3.0), 3. NEW YORK +1.5 (+2.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -11.5 (+3.9), 2. ORLANDO -12 (+3.2), 3. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+2.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-DAL OVER 225.5 (+6.0), 2. MIN-PHX OVER 216.5 (+0.5), 3. MIA-HOU OVER 215.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-WSH UNDER 224 (-5.8), 2. UTA-LAC UNDER 223.5 (-2.6), 3. TOR-MIL UNDER 228.5 (-2.3)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(529) PORTLAND at (530) WASHINGTON
* ROAD TEAMS are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 of the POR-WAS series
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS

(531) ORLANDO at (532) CHARLOTTE
* ORLANDO is on a 7-2 ATS run at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(533) OKLAHOMA CITY at (534) INDIANA
* Under the total is 10-4 in the OKC-IND series since 2017
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(535) SACRAMENTO at (536) BOSTON
* BOSTON has won the last five ATS versus Sacramento
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(537) TORONTO at (538) MILWAUKEE
* The last three games of the TOR-MIL series went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(539) SAN ANTONIO at (540) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS has won last four ATS hosting San Antonio
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS

(541) DETROIT at (542) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is on a 9-1-1 ATS run versus Detroit
System Match: PLAY MEMPHIS ATS

(543) MIAMI at (544) HOUSTON
* MIAMI is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 versus Houston
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

(545) NEW YORK at (546) CHICAGO
* NEW YORK is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 versus Chicago
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(547) GOLDEN STATE at (548) DALLAS
* DALLAS is on a 6-1 ATS run hosting Golden State
System Match: PLAY DALLAS AT

(549) MINNESOTA at (550) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX has won the last seven ATS versus Minnesota
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(551) UTAH at (552) LA CLIPPERS
* Favorites are 11-5-1 ATS in the UTA-LAC series since 2021
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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