The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, NEW ORLEANS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, DALLAS ML, DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): ORLANDO ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much”, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-WSH, NOP-BKN, DAL-SAS, DEN-MIN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): HOU-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-ORL, PLAY UNDER in NOP-BKN, PLAY UNDER in DEN-MIN

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is obviously still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. At this point, with over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

DALLAS boasts an impressive 14-2 SU and ATS (87.5%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
3/19 at San Antonio
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-8.5 at SAS)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 29-10 SU and 29-10 ATS (74.4%).
3/19 vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-13 vs CHA)

SAN ANTONIO has gone 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS (26.7%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/19 vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+8.5 vs DAL)

WASHINGTON is 20-13 ATS (60.6%) as a road underdog this season but 9-20 ATS (31%) as a home underdog
3/19 vs Houston
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs HOU)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 147-29 SU but just 72-101-3 ATS (41.6%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (*only if they become double-digit favorite at WSH (-9.5 currently)*)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:

Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 78-61 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 145-116 (55.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 184-138 (57.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CHA-ORL (o/u at 202.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-51 SU but 42-35 ATS (54.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 49-14 SU and 39-22-2 ATS (63.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-9.5 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.6% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (156-172 ATS, 47.6%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-197 ATS, 51.2%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs HOU)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). SAN ANTONIO +9 (+1.1) and MINNESOTA +7.5 (+1.1), 3. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -12.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +7.5 (+2.9), 2. BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -9.5 (+1.3), 2. ORLANDO -12.5 (+0.8), 3. DALLAS -9 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-SAS OVER 233 (+0.9), 2. NOP-BKN OVER 216 (+0.7), 3. DEN-MIN OVER 213.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-ORL UNDER 203.5 (-1.4), 2. HOU-WSH UNDER 228 (-0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+0.6), 2(tie). BROOKLYN +7.5 (+0.4) and MINNESOTA +7.5 (+0.4)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -9 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-SAS OVER 233 (+2.9), 2. NOP-BKN OVER 216 (+0.8), 3. CHA-ORL OVER 203.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-MIN UNDER 213.5 (-1.8), 2. HOU-WSH UNDER 228 (-0.4)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) HOUSTON at (502) WASHINGTON
* Favorites are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the HOU-WAS series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(503) CHARLOTTE at (504) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO has won the last four ATS versus Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(505) NEW ORLEANS at (506) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 versus New Orleans
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

(507) DALLAS at (508) SAN ANTONIO
* DALLAS is on a 5-1 ATS surge versus San Antonio
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(509) DENVER at (510) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 5-1 ATS in the last six hosting Denver
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

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