Rory McIlroy seized the lead in the third round of the 2025 Masters Tournament at Augusta National, finishing at 12-under par with a 66, highlighted by two eagles. Bryson DeChambeau finished strong, birdieing 18 to reach 10-under, two shots back.
VSiN’s golf experts offered their third-round observations and final-round predictions . . .
Matt Youmans
It has been a decade since Rory McIlroy won a major, a streak that should have ended last summer and should end Sunday. He’s dwarfing the golf course off the tee and turning the par-5s, especially the two on the back, into easy birdie or eagle opportunities. If he chokes in the final round, his putting will be the problem.
With McIlroy in a major, choking is always a possibility. Conners is a steady player, but he’s conservative and not enough of a gambler to come from behind to win this. I’ll call it a two-horse race between Rory and DeChambeau, who will be aggressive and charging hard. I’ve got both covered in futures – McIlroy +330 from Friday night and DeChambeau +800 from Thursday night — so I’m not adding anything. The DraftKings price on McIlroy is -200 and looks cheap; it was -350 before Bryson’s long birdie putt on 18 trimmed his deficit to two strokes. I believe Rory closes the deal this time, unlike the US Open last summer.
Several important betting decisions will be coming Sunday for Top 10 and Top 20 finishes. Player matchups are not posted as I write this, but I’ll be looking to bet on Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg and Collin Morikawa in the final round. Scheffler’s slump has been strange to watch, but I bet he shows up with a strong finish.
Kelley Bydlon
Once again, the story of the day at The Masters was Rory McIlroy. He shoots a six-under 66 and recaptures the lead as we head into the final round.
Having an outright ticket on Rory, and some big finishing position bets on the line, I will likely not be adding anything. If there are any final round matchups though I like, I will post at vsin.com. When it comes to outright bets though, I do think this is down to Rory and Bryson DeChambeau and I probably wouldn’t suggest burning money elsewhere. Bryson is not going to make it easy on Rory. Despite losing to the field on approach, Bryson has somehow found himself right there with the rest of his game on absolute fire.
Wes Reynolds
Rory McIlroy (-200 in play) has been trying to complete the career Grand Slam since 2015 at The Masters. Is the 11th time a charm? It is hard to believe that the greatest player of the post-peak Tiger era has not won a major championship since 2014. He will have another great chance at it on Sunday as he carries a two-stroke lead into the final round after posting another 6-under round of 66.
McIlroy’s last great chance at a major championship was last summer at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 when he held the lead with four holes to play only to make three bogeys on the final four holes, including a missing a 2-foot par on 16 and a 3-footer for par at the 18th.
The beneficiary of McIlroy’s misfortune was Bryson DeChambeau (+270), who captured his second U.S. Open title.
Who will Rory have to hold off on Sunday? You guessed it, his recent nemesis DeChambeau, who made a 45-footer from off the green at the last on Saturday to put himself in the final pairing with McIlroy.
DeChambeau is probably the closest thing that McIlroy has to a rival considering what happened at Pinehurst No. 2 last summer plus the fact that competing with DeChambeau’s length off the tee has long been a bit of an obsession for McIlroy.
However, it’s not DeChambeau leading the field this week for Driving Distance. It is McIlroy with an average of 318.7 yards. McIlroy also leads the field for Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, and Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.
Meanwhile, Bryson is leading the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and the putt from off the 18th on Saturday certainly shows why that is the case.
Corey Conners (16/1) made a nice showing for himself on Saturday playing in the penultimate group with McIlroy. He finds himself in that same second-to-last group again with Patrick Reed (80/1), who is part of a group a 6-under (6 shots back) with Ludvig Åberg (40/1).
Rounding out the Top 10 are four players at 5-under including Jason Day (150/1), defending Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (40/1), Shane Lowry (120/1), and Justin Rose (250/1), who we foreshadowed might have some regression and struggles coming with the putter and they came to fruition on Saturday as he lost over 4.5 strokes on the greens.
Nevertheless, this is a Rory vs. Bryson showdown on Sunday.
This is more than just beating a rival for McIlroy. This is for career immortality. This is for the opportunity to sit at the main table with Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Gary Player, Ben Hogan, and Gene Sarazen as career Grand Slam winners. This is for the right to be called one of the all-time greats of the game.
In his post-round presser, McIlroy said he watched the movie “Zootopia” with his daughter Poppy on Saturday morning. Perhaps the Saturday night viewing should be “Tin Cup”. In that film, he will find a quote from Kevin Costner’s character Roy McAvoy:
“When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment or the moment defines you.”
Matt Brown
Round 3 saw four of the top five golfers on the leaderboard gain at least 1.28 strokes to the field putting. The one that lost strokes (be it only -0.11 strokes) was Rory McIllroy. And despite not having a hot putter on Saturday, Rory rode a blazing hot approach and around-the-green game to a 6-under 66, matching Zach Johnson (I know, right?) for low round of the day. McIllroy (-12) holds a 2-stroke lead over Bryson DeChambeau (-10) who drilled a bomb from just off the green on 18 to pull within two headed into Sunday. I have a ticket on Rory and Conners (-8) and I’m probably going to let it ride into Sunday with a quick trigger on taking some piece of Bryson if Rory looks shaky.
– Justin Rose missed every putt on the course Saturday. It was almost tough to watch. The 36-hole leader shot 75, almost entirely because his putter failed him (to the tune of -4.54 strokes putting…most in the field by 1.44 strokes!). His other metrics look good and so long as he didn’t lose it mentally, I’ll expect some positive regression. I have backed him in a 4th round H2H against Zach Johnson.
– Around-the-green play continues to be incredibly important at the 2025 Masters. The top six ARG players on Saturday all shot under par, including leader Rory McIllory who was first in this category. Bryson was third en route to his 3-under. Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee, Michael Kim, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, and Stephan Jaeger all rank inside the top 25 in SG:ARG this season. (Rory is 31st)
– Jon Rahm gained 4.17 strokes putting on Saturday, while losing ARG, APP, and T2G. He only gained 0.01 strokes OTT. Basically, his round was a mirage. I have backed Joaquin Niemann in the 4th round, as he was the exact opposite. Niemann gained everywhere except putting, where he lost 1.29 strokes. Niemann has gained on approach in all three rounds and might just be better than Jon Rahm these days.
– Of note, Xander Schauffele has quietly put together back-to-back good rounds. Rebounding from an opening round 73, Xander has gone 69, 70 the last two days. He’s not going to win this week, but he might be ‘back’ from his injury that kept him out at the beginning of the season. We’ll need to monitor his price moving forward to see if we get odds that match his upward trend.
It’s been a great tournament so far and we get an awesome final pairing with Rory and Bryson. Can’t wait for Sunday and let’s get that jacket on Rory.
