3M Open 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Scottie Scheffler (+450) cruised to a four-shot victory in The Open Championship at Royal Portrush for his fourth career major championship victory and to become the Champion Golfer of the Year. He led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harris English finished runner-up and has now finished second to Scheffler in two majors this year, having also shared the runner-up spot at the PGA Championship in May.
Chris Gotterup followed his victory at the Genesis Scottish Open with a third-place finish.
Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick and Haotong Li shared fourth, while Robert MacIntyre, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy finished T-7.
Many of the world’s top players are taking a respite from this week’s event in the Twin Cities, the 3M Open.
While Scheffler is not in this week’s field, one of his best friends on tour is as Sam Burns (18-1), the runner-up in June at RBC Canadian Open, attempts to reach the winner’s circle for the first time in almost two and a half years.
Like Burns, Maverick McNealy (20-1), third here last year, and Clark (25-1) are attempting to make last-minute runs to earn a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team.
Gotterup (25-1) may also be live for a potential spot with his recent hot play.
Max Greyserman (33-1) was runner-up here to Jhonattan Vegas (75-1), whom we hit at 90-1, last year. He was also runner-up four weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic as he keeps knocking at the door for his first PGA Tour win.
Taylor Pendrith (33-1) was fifth here last year.
Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1) missed the cut last year but has contended over the last two years in other Midwest birdie fests like last year’s John Deere Classic, finishing T-2 and the Rocket Mortgage Classic last month, finishing T-4.
Next on the odds board are Si Woo Kim (35-1), Kurt Kitayama (40-1), sixth here last year, Jake Knapp (40-1) and Akshay Bhatia (40-1).
Tony Finau (40-1) won here three years ago. Rickie Fowler (40-1) had a solid showing in last week’s Open, finishing T-14.
Other former 3M Open winners in this week’s field include Cameron Champ (50-1) and Lee Hodges (70-1).
The Field
156 players are in this week’s field, but just eight of the OWGR Top 40 are here the weeks after a major.
Here’s a list of odds at several national books.
The Course
TPC Twin Cities is in Blaine, which is 13 miles north of Minneapolis and 20 miles from St. Paul. The track was designed in 2000 by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman. Native Minnesotan PGA Tour players Lehman and Tim Herron, along with Steve Wenzloff, PGA Tour VP of Design Services, renovated the layout in 2018. TPC Twin Cities is part of the Tournament Players Club group of courses owned by the PGA Tour.
The course will be played as a par-71 of 7,431 yards. It is a relatively easy and gettable parklands design with three shorter and drivable par-4s that longer hitters can reach. With three par-5s measuring 594 yards (6th), 593 yards (12th) and 596 yards (18th) in length, the longest holes on the course show some resistance here.
The closing 18th is arguably one of the best finishing holes on the tour. The hole doglegs with water on the right throughout, which is in play on both the tee shot and approach if players want to get aggressive with a 220+ yard approach over water to reach in two. Matthew Wolff won in climactic fashion at the inaugural 2019 3M Open, responding to Bryson DeChambeau’s eagle on 18 with an eagle of his own from just off the fringe.
There are 27 water hazards in play over 13 holes (third most of the PGA Tour), so it resembles a bit of a Florida-type layout. While it is a relatively easy course, there is danger lurking with all of the water.
In addition, there are 72 bunkers, which were rebuilt and repaired after a heavy storm two years ago. The fairways (35 yards average width) are constructed of Bentgrass and they will play hard and fast with plenty of rollout. The rough can be a pesky four-inch Bluegrass-Fescue mix. The greens are large (6,500 square feet) and average speed (12.5 stimpmeter) Pure Bentgrass.
PGATOUR.com provides a brief flyover look at TPC Twin Cities.
Here is the official scorecard of TPC Twin Cities courtesy of PGATOUR.com:
In 2019, tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave an honest description of how they want the 3M Open to play, quoted as saying, “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the tour.”
TPC Twin Cities is an Arnold Palmer original design, so here are some other Palmer designs played on the PGA Tour:
- PGA West — Palmer Private — 2008-2015 Career Builder Challenge
- Bay Hill Country Club — Arnold Palmer Invitational
- TPC Boston — Dell Technologies Championship
- Isleworth Golf & Country Club — 2014 Hero World Challenge
- Albany — 2015-2018 Hero World Challenge
Non-Palmer designs that are more direct correlations to TPC Twin Cities include TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans), TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), TPC Summerlin (Shriners Hospitals Open), TPC San Antonio (Valero Texas Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), PGA National (Honda Classic), and PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express).
Weather
Rain is expected on Thursday and Saturday per the AccuWeather forecast. It will be hot and humid as usual in the Midwest this time of year.
3M Open Recent History
2024: Jhonattan Vegas (-17/264); 80-1
2023: Lee Hodges (-24/260); 80-1
2022: Tony Finau (-17/267); 14-1
2021: Cameron Champ (-15/269); 150-1
2020: Michael Thompson (-19/265); 125-1
2019: Matthew Wolff (-21/263); 175-1
Statistical Analysis
Four of the six 3M Open winners ranked fourth or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their winning weeks.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Henrik Norlander 0.807
- Lee Hodges 0.580
- Akshay Bhatia 0.566
- Doug Ghim 0.548
- Tom Hoge 0.545
- Jackson Suber 0.535
- Victor Perez 0.477
- Rico Hoey 0.460
- Antoine Rozner 0.454
- Ben Kohles 0.412
- Sami Valimaki 0.409
- Kevin Yu 0.406
- Si Woo Kim 0.387
- Gary Woodland 0.344
- Andrew Putnam 0.328
- Steven Fisk 0.317
- John Pak 0.317
- Chan Kim 0.309
- Joel Dahmen 0.304
Although these fairways have wide landing areas, there are enough water hazards that make accuracy important. If players are confident in finding fairways, then they can rip it with the driver off the tee and be in better position to hit the greens, which are fairly easy to hit. Basically, TPC Twin Cities is a ball striker’s paradise. Ball Striking is calculated using Total Driving (Distance Rank + Accuracy Rank) + Greens In Regulation Rank.
Ball Striking (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Rico Hoey 3 (1 Total Driving Rank + 2 GIR Rank)
- Michael Thorbjornsen 6 (2 + 4)
- Steven Fisk 15 (10 + 5)
- Thomas Rosenmueller 19 (3 + 16)
- Kevin Yu 26 (8 + 18)
- Kevin Roy 29 (4 + 25)
- Victor Perez 30 (21 + 9)
- Lee Hodges 32 (19 + 13)
- Ricky Castillo 38 (7 + 31)
- Will Gordon 38 (28 + 10)
- Alex Smalley 39 (6 + 33)
- Keith Mitchell 42 (13 + 29)
- Taylor Pendrith 48 (24 + 24)
- Kris Ventura 52 (10 + 42)
- Ben Kohles 59 (48 + 11)
- Thorbjørn Olesen 59 (21 + 38)
- Isaiah Salinda 64 (9 + 55)
- Nick Hardy 65 (51 + 14)
- Chris Gotterup 70 (69 + 1)
Good Drive Percentage is a measure for par-4 and par-5s by calculating the sum of fairways hit and number of greens or fringe in regulation (when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot), divided by the number of par-4 and par-5s played.
Good Drive Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Rico Hoey 86.68%
- Takumi Kanaya 86.54
- Zach Johnson 86.35
- Paul Peterson 86.25
- Ben Kohles 86.08
- Brice Garnett 85.90
- Victor Perez 85.80
- Andrew Putnam 85.70
- Michael Thorbjornsen 85.69
- Hayden Buckley 85.34
- Ricky Castillo 85.29
- Brandt Snedeker 85.06
- Thomas Rosenmueller 84.62
- Thriston Lawrence 84.49
- Carson Young 84.30
- Alex Smalley 84.23
- Joel Dahmen 84.19
- Doug Ghim 84.12
- Si Woo Kim 84.06
As stated above, the tournament founder wants birdies, and he gets plenty of them in this event.
Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Jake Knapp 25.21%
- Michael Thorbjornsen 25.05
- Keith Mitchell 24.91
- Jesper Svensson 24.44
- Kevin Yu 24.32
- Akshay Bhatia 23.96
- Danny Walker 23.88
- Taylor Montgomery 23.86
- Hayden Springer 23.82
- Kurt Kitayama 23.78
- Alex Smalley 23.75
- Erik van Rooyen 23.74
- Wyndham Clark 23.69
- Sam Burns 23.50
- Chris Gotterup 23.40
- Trey Mullinax 23.28
- Isaiah Salinda 23.07
- Max Greyserman 23.04
- Si Woo Kim 23.00
While there are plenty of birdies, there are also plenty of trainwrecks, like the tournament founder wanted, because of all the water on the course, so big numbers can be carded here.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Andrew Putnam 11.31%
- Vince Whaley 12.59
- Brice Garnett 12.67
- Ryo Hisatsune 12.76
- Chris Gotterup 12.99
- Kevin Roy 12.99
- Lee Hodges 13.44
- Nate Lashley 13.77
- Alex Smalley 13.80
- Sam Ryder 13.89
- Ben Kohles 13.99
- Jeremy Paul 14.00
- Jake Knapp 14.01
- Ricky Castillo 14.08
- Henrik Norlander 14.11
- Victor Perez 14.27
- Paul Peterson 14.29
- Takumi Kanaya 14.49
- Chad Ramey 14.62
The average winning score in this event has been a little better than 22-under par over the last six years, so TPC Twin Cities is fairly gettable.
Total Strokes Gained — Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 24 rounds)
- Kevin Roy 42.2
- Jake Knapp 40.1
- Kevin Yu 36.6
- Adam Scott 36.3
- Maverick McNealy 34.1
- Si Woo Kim 29.4
- Luke Clanton 27.6
- Cameron Champ 27
- Sam Burns 26
- Sami Valimaki 25.7
- Max Greyserman 25.6
- Andrew Putnam 24.6
- Taylor Pendrith 23
- Alex Noren 21.9
- Michael Thorbjornsen 21.8
- Sam Stevens 21.4
- Chris Gotterup 20.8
- Alex Smalley 20.5
- Kris Ventura 20.4
Selections
Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1, DraftKings)
Thorbjornsen has had some near-misses this season in pursuit of his first PGA Tour victory. Second at Corales, fourth at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Karl Vilips, and fourth at the Rocket Classic. Plus, he has gone 21st and 14th across his last two events.
He has gone well in these Midwest low-scoring events with a runner-up at the John Deere last year and finishing just one shot out of the playoff in Detroit last month.
Kurt Kitayama (40-1, BetMGM)
Kitayama currently sits 110th in the FedEx Cup standings and is starting to make a late run with a fifth at the John Deere and a 14th at the Barracuda last weekend.
He was sixth here last year on debut.
Kevin Yu (50-1, DraftKings)
Yu comes in on good form with four top-25 finishes over his last eight starts.
The putter is typically a weak spot, but he’s gained strokes on the greens in seven of his last eight starts, ranking inside the top five on the greens in the last two months.
Rico Hoey (60-1, Circa Sports)
Hoey was eighth last week at the Barracuda and 11th at the John Deere two starts before.
He ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour for Ball Striking (1st in Total Driving, 2nd GIR) even ranking ahead of Scottie Scheffler.
Andrew Putnam (70-1, DraftKings)
Putnam has finished inside the top 20 here on his last two appearances.
He was 11th last week at the Barracuda, plus finished eighth last month in Detroit and sixth in Canada.
Tom Hoge (100-1, BetRivers)
Hoge finished fourth here in 2022.
While still solid as ever on Approach (19th on tour), other numbers have taken a dip primarily due to playing a schedule of majors and signature events. Perhaps this is a drop in class this week.
Victor Perez (125-1, Bet365)
Perez, like many others in this field, is attempting to improve his FedEx Cup positioning (currently 106th).
The Frenchman ranks eighth on tour for Ball Striking.
Placement markets, matchups, and/or other futures will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
