Andalucia Masters Predictions:
Englishman Dan Bradbury, a pre-tournament price of 125-1, emerged from a congested leaderboard to win the Open de France on Sunday by one stroke over Thorbjørn Olesen, Yannik Paul (both tipped in this column last week), Sam Bairstow and Jeff Winther. This marked Bradbury’s second DP World Tour victory in less than a calendar year.
This week, the DP World Tour heads back to Spain for the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters.
As is typical in many places, especially in his home country of Spain, Jon Rahm (3-1) is a short-priced favorite. Rahm has never won the Andalucia Masters at Sotogrande.
Rasmus Højgaard (18-1) won the Irish Open five weeks ago.
Olesen (20-1) finished ninth here last year and was a co-runner-up last week in Paris.
Spaniard David Puig (22-1) was T-3 three weeks ago at the Open de España in Madrid and T-4 in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship two weeks ago.
Matt Wallace (25-1) won six weeks ago in the Swiss Alps at the Omega European Masters while Niklas Norgaard (25-1) won the week before that at the Betfred British Masters.
Thriston Lawrence (25-1) is another recent winner but on the Sunshine Tour in his home South Africa about two months ago, plus he has two recent runner-up finishes on the DP World Tour.
The Event
The Andalucia Masters began in 2010 as a replacement for the Volvo Masters and was held at Valderrama Golf Club. The tournament was canceled in 2012 due to the economic crisis in Spain and the local government withdrew its support. The event returned in 2017 and was hosted by the Sergio Garcia Foundation with Estrella Damm, a beer brewed in Barcelona, as its sponsor. The 2020 event was originally scheduled for the first weekend in May but was moved to the first weekend in September because of COVID-19 schedule changes.
The Course
Last year, the Andalucia Masters moved on from Valderrama as that course signed a deal with LIV Golf. The event moved to Real Club de Golf Sotogrande in Sotogrande, Spain.
At 7,101 yards for a par-72, this Robert Trent Jones design is not long by modern-day standards and instead uses proximity to the coast and a more exposed style as its main defense. Fairways are wide with pine, cork oaks, eucalyptus and giant palm trees dotted around the perimeters, making this a positional golf course where the emphasis is on the second shot. Greens are elevated, emphasizing quality approach play, and fairways and putting surfaces are well bunkered throughout. Six holes also have water in play.
A 2015 renovation returned this course close to Trent Jones’ original design with the greens reduced back in size and the surfaces re-laid with Bentgrass.
Here is the scorecard for this week’s event courtesy of the DP World Tour:
Andalucia Masters Recent History
2023: Adrian Meronk (-16/272); 18-1
2022: Adrian Otaegui (-19/265); 60-1
2021: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6/278); 14-1
2020: John Catlin (+2/286); 125-1
2019: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-10/274); 80-1
2018: Sergio Garcia (-12/201); 9-2*
2017: Sergio Garcia (-12/272); 5-1
2016: Andrew Johnston (+1/281); 100-1**
Weather-shortened event to 54 holes – *
2016 Open de España event – *
Selections
David Puig (22-1, DraftKings)
The 22-year-old Spaniard already has won twice on the Asian Tour in the last calendar year and has had a couple of close calls on LIV.
His recent form indicates that a signature victory is right around the corner.
Puig ranked fourth in total birdies on LIV Golf for 2024 behind only Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton and Joaquin Niemann, who were all multiple winners this season. He was also in the top 5 on that tour for both Putting Average and Driving Distance.
Victor Perez (30-1, BetMGM)
Perez finished 71st in the FedEx Cup Standings for his first full rookie season on the PGA Tour and will be back out there for a second season, which has allowed him to play the fall DP World Tour schedule to not only meet the Ryder Cup minimum starts on the DPWT but also get into the Race to Dubai events.
The Frenchman finished ninth here last year and ranks top 10 in this week’s field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
Tom McKibbin (33-1, FanDuel)
McKibbin finished a disappointing 27th in France last week despite being second in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.
McKibbin is eighth in the Race to Dubai PGA Tour eligibility rankings. The top 10 at the end of the season earn PGA Tour cards.
Here is the list:
- Thriston Lawrence
- Rasmus Højgaard
- Niklas Norgaard
- Matteo Manassero
- Jesper Svensson
- Sebastian Soderberg
- Rikuya Hoshino
- Tom McKibbin
- Romain Langasque
- Guido Migliozzi
After this week, there are only three events until the season’s conclusion, so McKibbin is on the right side of the bubble, but a high finish here would clinch his card.
Yannik Paul (40-1, Bet365)
Paul made a decent move up the above list last week with a T-2 in France but still sits 24th, so he is looking for a couple more high finishes.
The German ranks sixth on the DPWT for Greens In Regulation and top 25 for Strokes Gained: Approach.
His lone DPWT victory was two years ago in Mallorca, so he is familiar with winning in Spain.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (50-1, FanDuel)
Neergaard-Petersen was elevated to the DP World Tour by earning three victories on the Challenge Tour this season, much like Matt McCarty, who won last week on the PGA Tour after winning three times on the Korn Ferry Tour this season.
He finished fourth two weeks ago at the Alfred Dunhill Links, which was bookended by finishes of 18th and 13th.
The man from Denmark also has previous success on this course having finished second here in 2018 at the European Nations Cup.
Jorge Campillo (55-1, FanDuel)
Campillo finished T-19 last year here while ranking seventh for Strokes Gained: Approach.
The Spaniard has solid form on Robert Trent Jones Sr. designs with two top-20s at Valderrama and two also at his Dar es Salam layout in Morocco, the site of Campillo’s first professional victory at the 2019 Trophee Hassan II.
Furthermore, Campillo’s best finish in 2024 was fourth on another Robert Trent Jones Jr. design at The Dunes in the Myrtle Beach Classic on the PGA Tour.
