Dubai Desert Classic
Rory McIlroy had already three-putted from two feet on the back nine yet still maintained a one-shot lead heading to the final hole at the DP World Tour Dubai Invitational on Sunday. Then, McIlroy put his tee shot into the creek, allowing Ryder Cup teammate Tommy Fleetwood to earn his first worldwide victory since November 2022.
The DP World Tour remains in Dubai for the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, where McIlroy (3-1) is the defending champion and a three-time winner of the event. Fleetwood is next in the market at 10-1 along with Tyrrell Hatton, who returns to the DP World Tour after two weeks in Hawaii and has finished in the top 4 three times in the last seven years here.
Like Hatton, Brian Harman (20-1) and Cameron Young (25-1) also make the trip to Dubai after beginning their 2024 campaigns in Hawaii.
Joaquin Niemann (22-1) is also in this field before he begins his 2024 season with LIV Golf.
DP World Tour regulars including Nicolai Hojgaard (25-1), Rasmus Hojgaard (28-1), Thorbjorn Olesen (33-1), Ryan Fox (35-1), Jordan Smith (40-1), and last week’s co-runner up Thriston Lawrence (40-1) are next on the odds board.
The Event
The Dubai Desert Classic was founded in 1989 and became the first European Tour event to be staged on the Arabian Peninsula, where it is now one of six events played there. The tournament was created by a Dubai golf government program to develop and promote both professional and casual golf tourism in the city of Dubai and throughout the United Arab Emirates.
This event is also notable because it was one of the first tournaments to embrace the concept of paying appearance fees to attract top players. That strategy has proved to be largely successful as the list of winners here includes Tiger Woods (2006, 2008), Rory McIlroy (2009, 2015), Ernie Els (1994, 2002, 2005) and other major champions in Seve Ballesteros (1992), Fred Couples (1995), Jose Maria Olazabal (1998), Mark O’Meara (2004), Henrik Stenson (2007), Danny Willett (2016) and Sergio Garcia (2017).
This event is also notable in terms of how it changed the way we watch golf on television. The Dubai Desert Classic was the first event televised live on Golf Channel when the network was founded in January 1995. Hero MotoCorp, a motorcycle and scooter manufacturer based in New Delhi, India, took over last year as the tournament’s title sponsor. The event also has been upgraded to a Rolex Series event with an increased prize fund of $9 million.
The Course
The Majlis Course at the Emirates Golf Club has hosted the Dubai Desert Classic every year, except for 1999 and 2000, since its inception in 1989. This track, a par-72 of 7,428 yards, is an exposed desert layout designed by Karl Litten that is shorter than last week’s Abu Dhabi course and includes several dogleg holes that provide a bit more of a strategic test where wind can play more of a factor, as it did last year. Be on alert for potential draw biases as the afternoon groupings often deal with substantially stronger winds than the morning groupings. The Bermuda greens are relatively quick (12-13 on the stimpmeter). There are four par-5s on the course, but three of them are on the back nine.
Recent History/Winners
2023: Rory McIlroy (-19/269); 16-5
2022: Viktor Hovland (-12/276); 10-1*
2021: Paul Casey (-17/271); 25-1
2020: Lucas Herbert (-9/279); 200-1**
2019: Bryson DeChambeau (-24/264); 10-1
2018: Haotong Li (-23/265); 110-1
2017: Sergio Garcia (-19/269); 20-1
2016: Danny Willett (-19/269); 40-1
2015: Rory McIlroy (-22/266); 7-2
2014: Stephen Gallacher (-16/272); 45-1
2013: Stephen Gallacher (-22/266); 70-1
2012: Rafael Cabrera-Bello (-18/270); 125-1
2011: Alvaro Quiros (-11/277); 16-1
2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11/277); 66-1***
Playoff win over Richard Bland – *
Playoff win over Christiaan Bezuidenhout – **
Playoff win over Lee Westwood – ***
Trends and Angles
Each of the last 13 winners here had at least one top-10 finish within their nine incoming starts.
- Only one event debutant (Richard Green, 1997) has won here.
- Going back to 2005, only two winners (Rory McIlroy, 2009; Haotong Li, 2018) had never had at least a top-25 finish in this event in a previous start.
Selections
Adrian Meronk (22-1, DraftKings)
Meronk started 2024 with a top-10 last week at Dubai Creek, ranking second in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.
The Pole was also fourth here on debut in 2022.
Thorbjorn Olesen (33-1, BetRivers)
Olesen closed 2023 with three top-9 finishes in his last four events.
He finished eighth last week at Dubai Creek and has four top-8 finishes across 10 starts at the Emirates.
Jordan Smith (40-1, BetMGM)
Smith finished fourth last week at Dubai Creek where he led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach, was second for GIR and was third for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.
He ranks as one of the best players on the DPWT for SG: Off-The-Tee, and that has been the key metric for success here in recent years.
Bernd Wiesberger (120-1, FanDuel)
An eight-time DP World Tour winner returns home this week as Wiesberger lost his LIV contract.
The Austrian mustered only one top-10 finish in two years on that circuit.
He returns to a venue this week where he has three top-10s and seven top-25s in 13 appearances.
Sean Crocker (125-1, BetRivers)
Crocker finished sixth last week at Dubai Creek.
He was in the top 6 in last week’s field for SG: Off-The-Tee, SG: Approach, and GIR.
