Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets and Golf Odds

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Scottie Scheffler was the favorite (4-1) to win the PGA Championship last weekend and played it like it with an all-around game that helped him run away from the field as he won by five strokes over Bryson DeChambeau (this column’s nearest pursuer), Harris English and Davis Riley. 

Scheffler led by three strokes after 54 holes, yet found himself tied with Jon Rahm — who eventually finished T-8 with a 5-over par finish on “The Green Mile” — when he reached the 10th tee. Nevertheless, Scheffler shot 2 under on the back nine and saw many of his challenges either make mistakes like Rahm or fail to provide any pressure like DeChambeau and others. 

The World No. 1 won his third major championship and saw his odds cut to almost 3-1 to win the U.S. Open next month at Oakmont. But first things first this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, where he is the favorite at 5-2 (+250) to complete the DFW metroplex sweep as he won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in Dallas three weeks ago. Scheffler is a two-time runner-up at Colonial and has finished 2-3-2 here the last three years.

There is a big drop-off on the odds board this week to the second spot, which is occupied by 2016 event champion and three-time runner-up at Colonial, Jordan Spieth (22-1).

At 25-1 are Daniel Berger, who won this event in 2020, Hideki Matsuyama and Tommy Fleetwood, while Maverick McNealy is 30-1. 

J.T. Poston (33-1), English (40-1) and Si Woo Kim (45-1) were all on the first page of the leaderboard at the PGA Championship.

Defending event champion Riley (55-1) finished T-2 last weekend in the PGA. 

The Event

The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club was initially established in 1946 and is the longest-running non-major event to be held at the same site on the PGA Tour. Much like the Memorial Tournament is for Jack Nicklaus and Bay Hill is for Arnold Palmer, the tournament at Colonial is associated with the late Ben Hogan, who was a resident of Fort Worth and won this event five times (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959). 

Annika Sörenstam played in the 2003 tournament and became the first woman to play in a PGA Tour event in 58 years, since Babe Zaharias made three cuts as an amateur in 1945. Sörenstam’s participation drew high media attention, but she shot 71 and 74 and missed the cut by four strokes. 

Due to its invitational status, the Charles Schwab Challenge field is just 132 players, with 65 players and ties making the weekend cut. In 2020, the tournament was held June 11-14 as the first PGA Tour event staged since the interruption of the regular schedule in mid-March because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the interests of maximum health and safety, the event had no spectators, a PGA Tour first.

Charles Schwab took over as the title sponsor in 2019. Previous sponsors were Dean & Deluca (2016-2017), Crowne Plaza (2007-2015), Bank of America (2003-2006), MasterCard (1996-2002), and Southwestern Bell (1989-1994).

Many of golf’s legends have won this tournament including Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959), Sam Snead (1950), Cary Middlecoff (1951), Roberto Di Vincenzo (1957), Tommy Bolt (1958), Julius Boros (1960, 1963), Arnold Palmer (1962), Billy Casper (1964, 1968), Gene Littler (1971), Lee Trevino (1976, 1978), Ben Crenshaw (1977, 1990), Fuzzy Zoeller (1981), Jack Nicklaus (1982), Lanny Wadkins (1988), Nick Price (1994, 2002), Tom Watson (1998) and Phil Mickelson (2000). 

The Field

132 players make up this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge field. Despite the major drop-off on the odds board from Scheffler to the rest of the field, 10 of the OWGR Top 30 are teeing it up this week at Colonial. 

The Course

Colonial Country Club was opened in 1936 by Marvin Leonard, and the course was designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell with a Keith Foster redesign in 2008. The most recent redesign was done last year by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner. It is in Fort Worth, Texas, just five minutes northwest of Texas Christian University (TCU). The course is nicknamed “Hogan’s Alley” in honor of Ben Hogan, who won five times on his home track. Colonial is a classical par-70 tree-lined parklands design that plays at 7,289 yards. In the first year post-Hanse and Wagner renovation, Colonial played at an average score of +0.82 strokes over par, which was the fifth-most difficult on tour last year. 

What makes Colonial difficult are the tight fairways (27.5 yards average fairway width — fourth narrowest on tour) and the smaller greens (5,000 square feet — fifth smallest on tour).

The fairways and rough (2.5-3 inches) are Bermudagrass and the greens are Bentgrass. The greens will roll fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter.

Power and distance are not necessarily much of an advantage here. Players will also tee off in a different direction after every hole. Colonial is a much tighter course off the tee than what we see out of other Maxwell designs like Augusta National and Southern Hills. 

Four water hazards are in play on six holes, along with 64 bunkers. Twelve of the 18 holes are doglegs. Long-term history shows that the best way to win here is to hit the fairways, be precise with the irons, be able to shape shots in multiple directions, and putt the lights out, as this is seen as a “ball strikers course.”

Colonial opens with a par-5 and a short par-4 that are the two easiest holes on the course. Then, the “Horrible Horseshoe” (holes 3-5) begins and those are three of the toughest holes on the layout. Since 2003, this has been the second most difficult three-hole stretch on tour and has played at a combined near half-stroke over par.

In terms of the Hanse $21 million renovations, most of the greens were lowered, and some have shifted slightly back or to either side a few yards and could be more receptive targets. Several barrancas, which are dry streambeds to channel water during rain periods, were added to the course on holes 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17 and 18.

Furthermore, many trees and 20 bunkers were removed. The removal of trees brightens the course a bit as Hanse felt it was too dark, but it also allows potential windy conditions to play even more of a factor.

The course was also lengthened by 89 yards.  

Correlated courses to Colonial include Harbour Town, Sedgefield (multiple winners at both courses), Innisbrook, Pebble Beach, Southern Hills, TPC Sawgrass and Waialae (shorter par-70).

Here is a breakdown of the course from the official scorecard: 

Weather

Per the AccuWeather forecast, rain is expected on Thursday, and a potential thunderstorm could happen late Sunday afternoon.  Winds do look fairly calm, though. High winds occurred here in 2022 and 2023 and kept the 72-hole winning score at single digits under par. 

Charles Schwab Challenge Recent History/Winners

2024: Davis Riley (-14/266); 250-1

2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8/272); 70-1*

2022: Sam Burns (-9/271); 30-1**

2021: Jason Kokrak (-14/266); 50-1

2020: Daniel Berger (-15/265); 70-1***

2019: Kevin Na (-13/267); 70-1

2018: Justin Rose (-20/260); 20-1

2017: Kevin Kisner (-10/270); 33-1

2016: Jordan Spieth (-17/263); 7-1

2015: Chris Kirk (-12/268); 35-1

2014: Adam Scott (-9/271); 18-1****

2013: Boo Weekley (-14/266); 100-1

2012: Zach Johnson (-12/268); 16-1

2011: David Toms (-15/265); 33-1

2010: Zach Johnson (-21/259); 50-1*****

Playoff win over Adam Schenk – *

Playoff win over Scottie Scheffler – **

Playoff win over Collin Morikawa – ***

Playoff win over Jason Dufner – ****

Tournament Scoring Record – *****

Tournament Trends

Age is more than just a number

• Other than Davis Riley in 2024, Sam Burns in 2022, Daniel Berger in 2020, and Jordan Spieth in 2016, 17 of the last 21 winners at Colonial have been over age 30. 

Experience matters

• Of the last 14 winners, only Riley in 2024, Burns in 2022, Berger in 2020 and then-World No. 1 Adam Scott (2014) had fewer than three career starts at Colonial.
• You have to go back to 2001 for the last time a player (Sergio Garcia) won his first PGA Tour title at Colonial.

Incoming form

• 11 of the last 12 winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge have posted a top-8 finish within their six most recent starts heading into Colonial. Last year, Riley was the only outlier for this trend. 

Statistical Analysis

Davis Riley ranked second in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach during his winning week last year. 

Colonial has tight fairways (27.5 yards on average) and small greens (5,000 square feet), so more of a premium is placed on being accurate with the irons. Fourteen of the last 17 winners ranked inside the Top 10 for GIR%, and 13 of those 14 ranked inside the top seven.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.235
2. Henrik Norlander 1.033
3. J.J. Spaun 0.827
4. Jackson Suber 0.721
5. Tommy Fleetwood 0.596
6. Kevin Yu 0.556
7. Daniel Berger 0.554
8. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.527
9. Aaron Rai 0.513
10. Tom Hoge 0.507
11. Bud Cauley 0.484
12. Sami Valimaki 0.481
13. Brian Campbell 0.477
14. Joel Dahmen 0.475
15. Ryan Gerard 0.473
16. Doug Ghim 0.460
17. Charley Hoffman 0.455

Greens In Regulation Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Rico Hoey 70.83%
2. Scottie Scheffler 70.83
3. Andrew Putnam 70.05
4. Ricky Castillo 69.95
5. Will Gordon 69.84
6. Michael Thorbjornsen 69.78
7. Robert MacIntyre 69.72
8. Steven Fisk 69.67
9. Kevin Yu 69.61
10. Aaron Rai 69.57
11. Brice Garnett 69.44
12. Keith Mitchell 69.44
13. Chris Gotterup 69.38
14. Ben Griffin 69.35
15. J.J. Spaun 69.28
16. Matti Schmid 69.11
17. Trey Mullinax 69.10
18. Thorbjørn Olesen 69.10
19. Maverick McNealy 69.02

With such narrow fairways and having to work the ball at different angles off the tee, Colonial cannot necessarily be overpowered, although some longer hitters have had success in cutting across the doglegs (Kokrak in 2021; Burns in 2022). 

Good Drives Gained measures players hitting fairways plus still hitting greens in regulation even if missing the fairways.

Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Aaron Rai 40.4
2. Daniel Berger 40
3. J.J. Spaun 31.6
4. Andrew Putnam 30.9
5. Victor Perez 29.6
6. Harris English 29
7. Ben Griffin 26.8
8. Scottie Scheffler 26.5
9. Doug Ghim 25.8
10. Max McGreevy 24.8
11. Takumi Kanaya 24.4
12. Ryo Hisatsune 23.7
13. Seamus Power 23.6
14. Tommy Fleetwood 23.4
15. Steven Fisk 23.2
16. Rico Hoey 23.2
17. Brice Garnett 23
18. Si Woo Kim 22.7
19. Joel Dahmen 22.6
20. Robert MacIntyre 22.6
21. Bud Cauley 22

A little over 60% of the approach shots come from yardages ranging from 125 to 200 yards.

Average Proximity Gained — Yards Per Round — 125-150 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Seamus Power 12.74
2. Lee Hodges 10.42
3. Tom Kim 8.16
4. Emiliano Grillo 6.49
5. Camilo Villegas 6.22
6. J.J. Spaun 6.13
7. Joel Dahmen 5.76
8. Blades Brown 5.61 (10 Rounds)
9. Greyson Sigg 5.29
10. Patton Kizzire 4.70
11. Kurt Kitayama 4.52
12. Henrik Norlander 4.45
13. Nate Lashley 4.34
14. Ryan Gerard 4.22
15. Sami Valimaki 4.01

Average Proximity Gained — Yards Per Round — 150 to 175 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Tom Kim 14.69
2. Charley Hoffman 12.20
3. Ben Kohles 9.86
4. Tommy Fleetwood 9.50
5. Henrik Norlander 8.24
6. Sam Ryder 7.79
7. Karl Vilips 7.67 (25 rounds)
8. Tom Hoge 7.49
9. Ryan Gerard 7.48
10. Brice Garnett 6.97
11. Hayden Buckley 6.95
12. Rico Hoey 6.68
13. Adam Schenk 6.55
14. Andrew Putnam 6.49
15. Ricky Castillo 6.36 (32 rounds)
16. Ben Silverman 6.28

Average Proximity Gained — Yards Per Round — 175 to 200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Rafael Campos 15.59
2. Bud Cauley 15.38
3. Blades Brown 15.10 (10 rounds)
4. Joel Dahmen 13.03
5. Carson Young 12.67
6. William Mouw 12.34 (26 rounds)
7. Alejandro Tosti 11.76
8. Henrik Norlander 10.55
9. Matt McCarty 9.91
10. Erik van Rooyen 9.71
11. Karl Vilips 9.50 (25 rounds)
12. Keith Mitchell 9.09
13. Hideki Matsuyama 9.07
14. Nico Echavarria 8.13
15. Eric Cole 8.10
16. Matti Schmid 7.93

“The Horseshoe” (holes 3, 4 and 5) plays to almost a half-stroke over, but there are also other potential bogeys on the course. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 10.14% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Brice Garnett 11.55
3. Andrew Putnam 11.92
4. Danny Willett 12.35
5. Ricky Castillo 12.75
6. Vince Whaley 12.88
7. Chris Gotterup 12.96
8. Matt Kuchar 12.96
9. Sam Ryder 13.16
10. Henrik Norlander 13.18
11. Alex Smalley 13.19
12. Michael Kim 13.25
13. Victor Perez 13.27
14. Daniel Berger 13.31
15. Ryo Hisatsune 13.53
16. Kevin Roy 13.55
17. Takumi Kanaya 13.64
18. Harry Hall 13.68
19. Nate Lashley 13.74
20. Quade Cummins 13.75

The greens at Colonial were seeded with Bentgrass back in 2023. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Harry Hall 0.87
2. Max Greyserman 0.81 (31 rounds)
3. Brian Campbell 0.80 (24 rounds)
4. J.T. Poston 0.77
5. Harris English 0.73
6. Mackenzie Hughes 0.67
7. Vince Whaley 0.64
8. Kris Ventura 0.61
9. Sam Stevens 0.57
10. Kevin Kisner 0.54
11. Davis Riley 0.53
12. Aaron Rai 0.53
13. Brandt Snedeker 0.52
14. Maverick McNealy 0.51
15. Andrew Novak 0.45

While the Scrambling percentages have been slightly easier at Colonial than the average PGA Tour course, these greens are small and players will have to be tidy with the short game.

Scrambling Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Danny Willett 69.54%
2. Scottie Scheffler 69.52
3. Hideki Matsuyama 69.41
4. Matt Kuchar 69.08
5. Chris Gotterup 67.74
6. Matt Wallace 67.34
7. Takumi Kanaya 67.33
8. Brice Garnett 66.99
9. Brandt Snedeker 66.83
10. Andrew Putnam 66.52
11. Daniel Berger 66.42
12. Charley Hoffman 66.36
13. Nate Lashley 65.77
14. Michael Kim 65.54
15. Alex Smalley 65.44
16. Sam Stevens 65.35
17. Sam Ryder 65.23
18. Ricky Castillo 65.13
19. Henrik Norlander 65.06

Selections

Aaron Rai (35-1, FanDuel)

Rai finished T-19 last week at the PGA but ranked third in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and fourth for Driving Accuracy.

The Englishman won his first PGA Tour event last fall at the Wyndham Championship held at Sedgefield, which has had strong correlations to Colonial.

He has six top-25s in his last nine starts and has made the cut here in all three appearances on a shorter course that fits his game better than a longer track like Quail Hollow. 

Maverick McNealy (36-1, Circa Sports)

Like Rai, McNealy won his maiden PGA Tour event in 2024 at the season-ending RSM Classic. 

Since then, McNealy has five top-10 finishes (three of them top-3 or better). 

He is one of several players just below the cut-off point for the top 6 in U.S. Ryder Cup points, so motivation is even greater. 

J.J. Spaun (60-1, Circa Sports)

Spaun finished just T-37 last week at the PGA but ranked third in the field for Driving Accuracy. 

He has never really fired here at Colonial, but this course seems to fit such a good ball striker, who ranks fourth on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Spaun has come close to earning his second PGA Tour victory on three occasions this season, finishing third at the Sony Open in Hawaii, runner-up at the Cognizant Classic, and losing in a playoff to Rory McIlroy at The Players Championship. 

Ryan Gerard (77-1, Circa Sports)

Gerard has three top-10 finishes in his last six starts, including an eighth at last week’s PGA, where he ranked second in the field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, even posting better numbers in that category than Scheffler. 

He has made the most of his second foray on the PGA Tour by making 12 of 14 cuts and has carried over his 2024 form, which earned him a victory on the Korn Ferry Tour and four top-10 finishes. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (90-1, DraftKings)

Bezuidenhout has finished 17-21-15 at Colonial the last three years.

While finishing just T-50 last week at the PGA on a course that is way too long for him, the South African ranked 10th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

He is typically excellent on and around the green, ranking 14th on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Putting and 24th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green. 

Bud Cauley (100-1, Bet Rivers)

Cauley began 2025 on a Major Medical Extension but has fulfilled that obligation to regain his full tour playing privileges courtesy of three consecutive top-6 finishes in March.

He should fit better on a shorter, ball-striking heavy course like Colonial. 

Ryo Hisatsune (120-1, FanDuel)

Hisatsune made the cut last week at the PGA and has two top-5 finishes in his last eight starts.

He was fifth earlier this year at the Valero and T-13 last year at the Byron Nelson, so he has gone well in the state of Texas. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks