DP World Tour Championship:
The 2024 DP World Tour season comes to an end this week in Dubai.
Rory McIlroy has a mostly insurmountable lead to win the season-long Race to Dubai title and is the 4/1 favorite to win the season finale here at the Earth Course where he has won twice (2012, 2015).
Tyrrell Hatton (6/1) is a two-time runner-up (2016, 2022) here.
Tommy Fleetwood (8/1) was the runner-up last year and in 2019. He won in Dubai earlier this year at Dubai Creek but has yet to win here at Jumeirah Golf Estates where he has his Tommy Fleetwood Golf Academy based.
Joaquin Niemann (12/1) is here to earn valuable OWGR points and get himself back eligible for next year’s major championships.
Shane Lowry (16/1) has not finished worse than 13th in any event over the past three months.
Matt Wallace tied for 2nd here last year and was T-3 last week in Abu Dhabi. He is priced at 20/1 along with Robert MacIntyre.
Paul Waring, last week’s winner in Abu Dhabi, is 75/1.
The Event
The DP World Tour Championship was established in 2009 as the Race to Dubai replaced the former European Tour Order of Merit. Global port operator DP World, based in Dubai and formed in 2005 with the merger of Dubai Ports Authority and Dubai Ports International, serves as the title sponsor of this event. Only 50 players are in this week’s field. The field will play for a $10 million purse with a $3 million share going to the winner. The Vardon Trophy, named after six-time Champion Golfer of the Year Harry Vardon, is awarded to the Race to Dubai points winner.
Unlike the TOUR Championship on the PGA TOUR, there is not a separate market for starting strokes because there are no starting strokes for this event.
The Field
The Top 50 available players on the Race to Dubai standings are here this week for the DP World Tour finale. Jon Rahm is not here having just welcomed his second child and Ludvig Aberg is recovering from surgery.
The full entry list is here.
There is also still the race for the Top 10 non-exempt DP World Tour players to earn PGA TOUR cards:
The Course
The Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates has hosted this event every year since the tournament’s creation.
The track was designed by Greg Norman, and it opened in 2009. The track is large at 7,706 yards with two of the Par 5s measuring over 625 yards, the tough Par 4 9th of 500 yards, plus the 195-yard Par 3 17th which plays to an island green. Greens are large, undulating Bermudagrass which will run at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Water is in play on the final three holes and there are 99 bunkers predominantly featured in the fairways.
Although the course is long, it is fairly easy to score upon. Nevertheless, those ball-strikers that are especially good with long irons should be successful here and being long off the tee never hurts either.
The DP World Tour’s YouTube provides a hole-by-hole flyover of the Earth Course.
Recent History
2023: Nicolai Højgaard (-21/267); 22/1
2022: Jon Rahm (-20/268); 5/1
2021: Collin Morikawa (-17/271); 15/2
2020: Matt Fitzpatrick (-15/273); 7/1
2019: Jon Rahm (-19/269); 7/1
2018: Danny Willett (-18/270); 80/1
2017: Jon Rahm (-19/269); 12/1
2016: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17/271); 66/1
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21/267); 5/1
2014: Henrik Stenson (-16/272); 17/2
2013: Henrik Stenson (-25/263); 11/1**
2012: Rory McIlroy (-23/265); 6/1
2011: Alvaro Quiros (-19/269); 40/1
2010: Robert Karlsson (-14/274); 50/1*
Playoff win over Ian Poulter – *
All-Time Tournament Scoring Record – **
Trends & Angles
Each winner here had registered at least one Top 7 finish in his previous six starts.
There have been four repeat winners here in 15 tournaments (Stenson, McIlroy, Rahm, Fitzpatrick).
Selections
Tommy Fleetwood 8/1 Caesars Sportsbook
Although this is a short field of 50 players, this is a short price on Fleetwood, who has won just twice in the last five seasons despite being currently ranked Top 10 in the world.
Nevertheless, this is going with the gut here.
Fleetwood ranks No. 1 on Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens In Regulation. Plus, he ranks No. 2 from Scrambling, No. 2 for Scoring Average (behind McIlroy) and No. 3 for Strokes Gained: Total.
Matt Wallace 20/1 FanDuel
Wallace tied McIlroy for 3rd last week and shared runner-up here last year.
He won in the Swiss Alps a couple months ago and is attempting to make the Ryder Cup team for the first time and a victory here would likely clinch a spot.
