FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:

The long, winless drought on the PGA Tour finally ended for Cameron Young, priced early last week at 66-1, as he ran away and hid en route to a six-shot victory at the Wyndham Championship. Young, who finished at 22 under, put himself into Ryder Cup consideration, rose to No. 21 in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) and most certainly clinched a spot in the final FedExCup playoff event at The Tour Championship because he currently sits 16th in the points, and the top 30 make the playoff finale. 

Young had seven runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour over the last five seasons before breaking his maiden this past weekend. This week, Young (40-1) will be part of the first FedExCup playoff event in Memphis at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The top 70 in the FedExCup points will be “Walking In Memphis,” as recorded by 1992 Grammy Award-winning Best New Artist Marc Cohn, this week. The field includes only 69, though, because Rory McIlroy will be skipping this stop. 

However, Scottie Scheffler (+275) will be here this week, which has been bad news of late for the rest of the field as he is only three weeks removed from winning his fourth major championship and second of 2025 at the British Open. Scheffler was fourth in this event last year.

Xander Schauffele (16-1), still seeking his first victory in 2025, was the co-runner-up here last year along with Viktor Hovland (30-1) as they finished two strokes back of eventual winner and defending champion Hideki Matsuyama (45-1). 

Young finally won his first PGA Tour event last week in Greensboro, S.C., so might it at last be time for Tommy Fleetwood (25-1) to do the same this week in Memphis? Fleetwood does have two top-five finishes here in the last six years. 

Justin Thomas (25-1) won here in 2020 when the event was known as the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

The next group in the market includes Ludvig Åberg (28-1), Russell Henley (30-1), Patrick Cantlay (33-1), runner-up here two years ago, Matt Fitzpatrick (33-1), Collin Morikawa (33-1), Sam Burns (35-1) and Corey Conners (40-1). 

Other former winners in Memphis include Harris English (45-1), two-time St. Jude Classic winner Daniel Berger (50-1) and Lucas Glover (90-1).

The Field

This week’s first playoff event is a no-cut event, but only the top 50 in the FedExCup point standings after this event will move on to play next week at the BMW Championship at Caves Valley just outside of Baltimore. After next week’s event, the top 30 move on to East Lake in Atlanta for the Tour Championship. The starting strokes format has also been eliminated for the season finale, so these next two weeks are about positioning to get into that top 30 for everyone to have a shot at winning the FedExCup. 

FedExCup points are quadrupled for the first two playoff events, so there is an opportunity for every one of the 70 players to make the Tour Championship.

Here are the current FedExCup standings for this week’s event. 

The Course

Located in Memphis, Tenn., TPC Southwind was built in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with PGA Tour professionals Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green. It is regarded as one of the more difficult TPC courses. 

The layout plays as a 7,288-yard par-70. The Zoysiagrass (like East Lake in Atlanta) fairways are some of the narrowest (27 yards wide on average — sixth narrowest out of 44 PGA Tour courses) on tour.

The Bermuda rough measures to three inches and can be tricky and unpredictable.

The greens, comprised of Champion Bermudagrass, are straightforward and average speed (12 stimpmeter) but are some of the smallest (third on tour) at just 4,300 square feet.

With 11 holes having the danger of water, TPC Southwind has the most “water balls” on tour by far. 

There was a renovation since last year’s event, which included the rebuilding and resurfacing of all 18 greens. All the tee boxes were also resurfaced. 

The Memphis area has had a very wet year with 53 inches of rain in 2025 as compared to 56 inches in all of 2024.

Here is the official FedEx St. Jude Championship scorecard courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

Comparable courses to TPC Southwind include TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, Innisbrook, East Lake, Waialae and Pebble Beach.

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast is fairly self-explanatory for this time of year in Memphis. It is early August, so this is one of the hottest events of the season. 

Memphis has gotten more rain than normal and is getting some on Monday and Tuesday of this week. The heat should help counteract any softness that the course may have after the rain, so the fairways still should have some roll, and these are bouncier Zoysiagrass fairways anyway. The greens should be firm here as well. 

FedEx St. Jude Recent History/Winners

FedEx St. Jude Championship

2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17/263); 25-1

2023: Lucas Glover (-15/265); 90-1*

2022: Will Zalatoris (-15/265); 28-1**

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

2021: Abraham Ancer (-16/264); 45-1***

2020: Justin Thomas (-13/267); 12-1

2019: Brooks Koepka (-16/264); 11-1

FedEx St. Jude Classic

2018: Dustin Johnson (-19/261); 7-1

2017: Daniel Berger (-10/270); 28-1

2016: Daniel Berger (-13/267); 33-1

2015: Fabián Gómez (-13/267); 400-1

2014: Ben Crane (-10/270); 175-1

2013: Harris English (-12/268); 66-1

2012: Dustin Johnson (-9/271); 20-1

2011: Harrison Frazar (-13/267); 275-1****

2010: Lee Westwood (-10/270); 12-1*****

Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay – *

Playoff win over Sepp Straka – **

Playoff win over Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama – ***

Playoff win over Robert Karlsson – ****

Playoff win over Robert Garrigus & Robert Karlsson – ***** 

You will notice a common theme among most of the recent winners here in that they are all proficient with approach play. 

Statistical Analysis

Four of the last seven winners here at TPC Southwind ranked third or better in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.297
2. Viktor Hovland 0.966
3. Shane Lowry 0.936
4. Sepp Straka 0.864
5. Collin Morikawa 0.760
6. Xander Schauffele 0.681
7. J.J. Spaun 0.662
8. Tommy Fleetwood 0.628
9. Daniel Berger 0.612
10. Nick Taylor 0.609
11. Patrick Cantlay 0.598
12. Akshay Bhatia 0.573
13. Russell Henley 0.573
14. Hideki Matsuyama 0.572
15. Justin Thomas 0.563

Around two-thirds of the approach shots will come from the wedge to short iron range (125-200 yards).

Average Proximity Gained — Feet Gained Per Round — 125 to 150 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Lucas Glover 8.16
2. Sepp Straka 6.95
3. Emiliano Grillo 5.98
4. Collin Morikawa 5.93
5. Keegan Bradley 5.92
6. J.J. Spaun 5.51
7. Kurt Kitayama 5.09
8. Thomas Detry 5.02
9. Justin Thomas 4.44
10. Patrick Cantlay 4.30
11. Russell Henley 3.98
12. Viktor Hovland 3.62
13. Stephan Jaeger 3.4
14. Chris Kirk 3.21
15. Tom Hoge 3.19

Average Proximity Gained — Feet Gained Per Round — 150 to 175 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Daniel Berger 7.75
2. Ryan Fox 7.72
3. Tom Hoge 7.22
4. Sepp Straka 7.13
5. Scottie Scheffler 6.99
6. Corey Conners 6.62
7. Hideki Matsuyama 6.60
8. Tommy Fleetwood 6.33
9. Xander Schauffele 6.28
10. Lucas Glover 5.38
11. Ryan Gerard 5.24
12. Nico Echavarria 4.71
13. Akshay Bhatia 4.62
14. Robert MacIntyre 4.31
15. Maverick McNealy 4.28

Average Proximity Gained — Feet Gained Per Round — 175 to 200 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Viktor Hovland 16.17
2. Si Woo Kim 11.49
3. Hideki Matsuyama 10.47
4. Matti Schmid 10.31
5. Scottie Scheffler 10.15
6. Keegan Bradley 9.36
7. Bud Cauley 8.66
8. Shane Lowry 8.56
9. Sepp Straka 8.16
10. Erik van Rooyen 7.95
11. Collin Morikawa 7.90
12. Akshay Bhatia 7.78
13. Kurt Kitayama 6.83
14. Chris Kirk 6.70
15. Nick Taylor 6.11
16. Xander Schauffele 6.02

There are 12 doglegs and the sixth-narrowest fairways on tour here at TPC Southwind. Plus, there are 11 water danger holes and tricky Bermuda rough. Players can still attack with driver, but they also must find fairways and avoid the penalty areas. Total Driving is comprised of Driving Distance Ranking + Driving Accuracy Ranking. 

Total Driving (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Kevin Yu 97 (37 DD + 60 DA)
2. Daniel Berger 113 (97 + 16)
3. Emiliano Grillo 120 (102 + 18)
4. Scottie Scheffler 120 (65 + 55)
5. Rickie Fowler 125 (80 + 45)
6. Taylor Pendrith 130 (32 + 98)
7. J.J Spaun 132 (66 + 66)
8. Keegan Bradley 133 (66 + 67)
9. Sam Burns 135 (53 + 82)
10. Ludvig Åberg 137 (26 + 111)
11. Kurt Kitayama 141 (8 + 133)
12. Matt Fitzpatrick 143 (84 + 59)
13. Aldrich Potgieter 143 (1 + 142)
14. Erik van Rooyen 143 (43 + 100) 
15. Ryan Gerard 146 (90 + 56)
16. Viktor Hovland 150 (89 + 61)

With these narrow landing zones, it is more difficult to find fairways. While players can overpower some of the dog legs, positional golf off the tee is vital.

Fairways Hit Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Rai 72.77%
2. Collin Morikawa 71.33
3. Lucas Glover 69.31
4. Sungjae Im 67.70
5. Sepp Straka 66.75
6. Russell Henley 66.48
7. Corey Conners 66.00
8. Emiliano Grillo 65.92
9. Si Woo Kim 65.65
10. Daniel Berger 65.49
11. Nick Taylor 64.87
12. Shane Lowry 64.56
13. J.T. Poston 64.42
14. Brian Campbell 64.14
15. Rickie Fowler 63.99

Good Drive Percentage is a measure for par-4s and par-5s by calculating the sum of fairways hit and number of greens or fringe in regulation (when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot), divided by the number of par-4s and par-5s played.

Good Drive Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Rai 87.84%
2. Collin Morikawa 86.39
3. Russell Henley 85.79
4. Emiliano Grillo 84.47
5. Patrick Cantlay 84.44
6. Daniel Berger 84.28
7. Lucas Glover 84.15
8. Si Woo Kim 83.88
9. Nick Taylor 83.79
10. Corey Conners 83.68
11. Sungjae Im 83.57
12. Chris Gotterup 83.49
13. Sepp Straka 83.33
14. Tommy Fleetwood 83.26
15. Ryan Gerard 83.24
16. Scottie Scheffler 83.11
17. Robert MacIntyre 83.04
18. Nico Echavarria 83.01
19. Shane Lowry 82.92

The greens are fairly forgiving at TPC Southwind, so players who give themselves the most birdie opportunities, even with mediocre putting, will be the ones who contend. Scoring Opportunities Gained — Birdie opportunities inside 15 feet from green or fringe plus Greens/Fringe Under Regulation. (NOTE: A green or fringe under regulation within 15 feet counts as 2 opportunities)

Opportunities Gained (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 51.4
2. Collin Morikawa 46.7
3. Sepp Straka 41.7
4. Justin Thomas 40.9
5. Daniel Berger 34.1
6. Russell Henley 30.5
7. Akshay Bhatia 30.4
8. Ludvig Åberg 30
9. Kurt Kitayama 29.6
10. Shane Lowry 23.1
11. Jake Knapp 21.6
12. Lucas Glover 21
13. Chris Kirk 20.6
14. Tommy Fleetwood 19.4
15. J.J. Spaun 19.3

TPC Southwind has some of the smallest greens on tour, so even players who are especially sharp with the irons will miss at least a few of them. Therefore, they will have to scramble to save pars. Three of the last six winners here led the field in Scrambling during their respective winning weeks. 

Scrambling Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 68.84%
2. Harry Hall 65.54
3. Hideki Matsuyama 65.38
4. Chris Gotterup 64.58
5. Patrick Rodgers 63.71
6. Jake Knapp 63.20
7. Michael Kim 62.72
8. Sam Stevens 62,57
9. Daniel Berger 62.56
10. Tommy Fleetwood 62.56
11. Jason Day 61.97
12. Shane Lowry 61.95
13. Harris English 61.71
14. Rickie Fowler 61.59
15. Russell Henley 61.54
16. Jacob Bridgeman 61.49
17. Si Woo Kim 61.09

Six of the 12 par-4s measure between 450 and 500 yards, including the final two holes. 

Strokes Gained Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Sam Burns 31.1
2. Scottie Scheffler 30.4
3. Nick Taylor 27.1
4. Corey Conners 24.4
5. Shane Lowry 22
6. Cameron Young 22
7. Aaron Rai 21.5
8. Jake Knapp 21.1
9. Matt Fitzpatrick 18.1
10. Ludvig Åberg 17.6
11. Tommy Fleetwood 17.2
12. Jhonattan Vegas 16.1
13. Sepp Straka 15.6
14. Lucas Glover 15

The greens at TPC Southwind have fairly accessible pins and are straightforward with few undulations, so putting will not be a major separator this week, but it is still good to look at those putters who are good on Bermuda greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 50 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 39.1
2. Nico Echavarria 34.5
3. Sam Burns 33
4. Max Greyserman 32.5
5. Harry Hall 31.6
6. Mackenzie Hughes 30.5
7. Ben Griffin 28.6
8. Russell Henley 27
9. Thomas Detry 26.9
10. Jacob Bridgeman 26.5
11. Ryan Fox 24.6
12. Taylor Pendrith 22.1
13. Davis Riley 22.1
14. Jason Day 20.4
15. Min Woo Lee 19.8
16. Robert MacIntyre 19.7
17. Akshay Bhatia 19.2
18. Chris Gotterup 19.1

Selections

Tommy Fleetwood (25-1, FanDuel)

Cameron Young finally broke his losing streak, earning his first PGA Tour victory in Greensboro last week. So why not Fleetwood to do the same in Memphis this week? 

Fleetwood doesn’t have as many PGA Tour runner-up finishes as Young, but he has four of them on the tour, plus a silver medal at the 2024 Olympic Games.

The seven-time DP World Tour winner gagged on his most recent chance at that elusive stateside victory in June at the Travelers Championship and seems to be owed at least one.

Fleetwood finished third (2023) and fourth (2019) in Memphis and is clearly a fit for a course that puts a premium on ball striking.

Russell Henley (30-1, DraftKings)

Henley has played only five PGA Tour events since the Masters, but he has played well in all of them with top-10 finishes in both the U.S. Open and the British Open, plus a runner-up at the Travelers and a fifth at the Memorial. 

He is a fairway finder and historically at his best putting on Bermuda greens. 

Henley also has a couple of top-seven finishes here (2016, 2023). 

Collin Morikawa (34-1, Circa Sports)

Morikawa continues his search for a permanent new caddie this week as Mark Urbanek, who has spent the last several years with Tony Finau, is on his bag this week.

Morikawa has not played poorly in 2025 with two runner-up finishes at The Sentry and Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he has been a bit inconsistent and missed consecutive cuts at the Scottish and British Opens. 

This might be where we can buy the dip on the odds board, as he did finish eighth last time on American soil in Detroit before the two missed cuts on the links. He has also been priced in the high-teens and low 20s in the odds all season, even in Scheffler-led fields and now he’s in the mid-30s. 

While likely on the Ryder Cup team because of his experience and body of work, it is not a 100% lock, and he could use a good showing to ensure his spot at Bethpage Black this fall. 

Viktor Hovland (35-1, DraftKings)

Other than Scheffler, no player on the PGA Tour has hit his irons and gained with approach play more than Hovland this year. 

Hovland finished runner-up in Memphis last year.

The win earlier this year at Innisbrook in the Valspar Championship, while in highly inconsistent form, shows his ability to win on strategic, tree-lined and ball-striking-heavy courses. 

Sepp Straka (45-1, BetMGM)

Straka ranks fourth in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and gains on Proximity in all of the buckets this week, particularly with the wedge ranges at 125 to 150 yards and 150 to 175. 

He has 12 top-15 finishes, including victories at the American Express (a 60-1 cash for this column in January) and the Truist Championship. 

The Austrian was runner-up here in 2022, losing in a playoff to Will Zalatoris. 

Daniel Berger (50-1, BetMGM)

Berger is a two-time winner (2016, 2017) at TPC Southwind and has finished outside the top five only once in five visits to Memphis. 

While he has cooled a bit from his form earlier in the season, he ranks inside the top 10 for both Strokes Gained: Approach and Fairways Hit Percentage, Good Drive Percentage, and Scrambling, plus is second in this field for Total Driving. 

He is also just on the outside looking in for one of the last spots on the Ryder Cup team. Now is as good a time at as good a venue as any for Berger to put himself firmly into consideration. 

Placement market, matchup and/or any futures bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks