Texas Children’s Houston Open Best Bets

Despite the OWGR No. 1 player Scottie Scheffler winning the previous two weeks as the tournament favorite, the 2024 PGA Tour season has been the year of longer shots. That trend continued this past weekend with Peter Malnati winning for the first time in 8 1/2 years (2015 Sanderson Farms Championship) at the Valspar Championship. Malnati, who is one of six player directors on the new PGA Tour board, has obviously had his plate full with all the issues and divisions in professional golf at the moment. He was a 250-1 pre-tournament price and won the Valspar by two strokes over Cameron Young, who now has seven runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour without a victory.

Malnati ranked third in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting, fourth for Greens In Regulation, fourth for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and ninth for Strokes Gained: Approach. He also earned an invitation to the Masters for the first time in his 15-year professional career. 

 

PGA Tour rookie Chandler Phillips earned his best career finish with a T-3 along with Mackenzie Hughes. Xander Schauffele, Ryan Moore, Carl Yuan and Adam Hadwin shared fifth. K.H. Lee and Christiaan Bezuidenhout rounded out the top 10 with a T-9.

The Florida Swing is over, and the PGA Tour moves to Texas for a two-step over the next couple of weeks starting with the Texas Children’s Houston Open, which moves back to a spring date for the first time since 2018. 

Scheffler (3-1) is, of course, the favorite in his adopted home state of Texas. The former Texas Longhorn finished runner-up here in 2021 and set the course record that year with a round of 62. 

Wyndham Clark (14-1) is 0-for-2 in his last two starts trying to topple the World No. 1 as he finished runner-up at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship to Scheffler. 

Tony Finau (20-1) is the defending champion of the event from 2022 (there was no event in 2023). Will Zalatoris also shares a 20-1 tag with Finau.

Sahith Theegala (22-1) comes into this week with consecutive top-10 finishes at the Arnold Palmer and The Players and is playing an ex-officio home game this week as he is a Houston resident. 

The mid-range of the market includes Jason Day (28-1), Si Woo Kim (35-1), Alex Noren (40-1) and Keith Mitchell (40-1), who was the 54-hole leader last weekend at the Valspar before shooting 8 over in his first 13 holes Sunday and ending up with a 6-over round of 77 to finish T-17. 

Malnati, last week’s winner, is 125-1 this week in Houston. 

The Event 

The Houston Open’s history on the PGA Tour dates to 1946. After years at a variety of venues in the greater Houston area, the tournament returned to Memorial Park Golf Course last year for the first time since 1963. Golf legends and Hall of Famers, including Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Curtis Strange, Raymond Floyd, Payne Stewart, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson, have won here. 

Houston has long been a mainstay on the PGA Tour and Jim Crane, the owner of the Houston Astros who was once named the best CEO Golfer in America by Golf Digest, saved this tournament from extinction several years ago. Crane was the lead fundraiser for the major makeover of the city-owned Memorial Park course. Shell Oil Company sponsored the event from 1992 to 2017. Crane’s Astros Foundation operates the tournament and Texas Children’s Hospital takes over as the tournament’s title sponsor. 

The Field

Six of the OWGR Top 30 (Scheffler, Clark, Finau, Theegala, Zalatoris and Day) headline a 144-player field playing for a $9.1 million purse. 

Field notes:

  •  Kevin Yu withdrew on Saturday.
  • Maverick McNealy withdrew on Sunday.
  • Adam Long and Dawie van der Walt IN, both on sponsor exemptions. 
  • Austin Cook and Richy Werenski IN the field with the latest reorder (done for all players without fully exempt status). 
  • Monday Open qualifiers: Callum McNeill, Rhein Gibson, Emiliano Gonzalez, Sung Kang all IN the field. 
  • C.T. Pan withdrew on Tuesday; James Hahn IN as alternate. 

The Course

In 2020, Memorial Park Golf Course served as the Houston Open venue for the first time in 57 years. It is a municipal course owned by the city of Houston and is rated the top muni track in the state of Texas. The Astros Foundation, which operates the tournament, committed $34 million to the renovation and redesign. The greens fee for a weekend round is $38. John Bredemus designed the track in 1935, but Tom Doak, whose main influences include Alister MacKenzie and Pete Dye, finished the renovation in 2019, with an assist from Brooks Koepka. 

Memorial Park plays as a par-70 (five par-3s, three par-5s, 10 par-4s) of 7,435 yards. Doak removed many trees, bunkers (only 21 on the course, the fewest of any course on the PGA Tour) and water (only in play on four holes) to make it more playable to the public as there are around 55,000 rounds played at Memorial Park in a calendar year.

Due to the tournament moving from its fall slot (where it had been held since 2020) to the spring for this year’s event, the agronomy is completely different. The all-Bermudagrass course is now overseeded with Poa trivialis on the greens. But the biggest change is switching from penal 2.5-inch Bermuda rough to the much easier and shorter 1.25-inch ryegrass rough.

The course played at an average round of +0.80 strokes over par the last three events (sixth most difficult on tour) but likely plays easier due to the change to ryegrass rough, which gives the players more confidence to be more aggressive off the tee. 

Other changes to the Memorial Park layout since the pros last competed here in November 2022 include the green on the 17th hole being moved 30 yards farther back along the water, creating a landing pad to where the old green was, in an effort for the players to attempt to carry the ball over the water. Two bunkers were also added to the left of the green. This could create a more exciting finish down the stretch on Sunday. 

The greens will still be firm and rolling fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. 

Three of the five par-3s are 200 yards or longer and eight par-4s are in the mid-400s in terms of yardage range with five of them being close to 500 yards or longer. 

Comparable courses include Golf Club of Houston, Renaissance Club, Southern Hills, Quail Hollow, Congaree, Augusta National, Colonial, TPC Scottsdale, PGA National and Riviera. 

Recent History/Winners 

​2022: Tony Finau (-16/264); 22-1

2021: Jason Kokrak (-10/270); 50-1

2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13/267); 160-1

2019: Lanto Griffin (-14/274); 60-1

2018: Ian Poulter (-19/269); 100-1*

2017: Russell Henley (-20/268); 40-1

2016: Jim Herman (-15/273); 400-1

2015: J.B. Holmes (-16/272); 28-1**

2014: Matt Jones (-15/273); 125-1***

2013: D.A. Points (-16/272); 250-1

2012: Hunter Mahan (-16/272); 22-1

2011: Phil Mickelson (-20/268); 18-1

2010: Anthony Kim (-12/276); 25-1****

 Playoff win over Beau Hossler – *

Playoff win over Jordan Spieth and Johnson Wagner – **

Playoff win over Matt Kuchar – ***

Playoff win over Vaughn Taylor – ****

​Note: From 2010-2018, the event was played in April and all events were played at the Golf Club of Houston. In 2020, the Houston Open moved to a fall event at Memorial Park. 

Statistical Analysis

Approach shots are more difficult here at Memorial Park as opposed to most courses on tour.

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 24 rounds)

  1. Tom Hoge 36.9
  2. Scottie Scheffler 26.1
  3. Keith Mitchell 21
  4. Ryan Moore 20.7
  5. Joel Dahmen 18.3
  6. Jake Knapp 17.6
  7. Will Zalatoris 16.7
  8. Tony Finau 16.5
  9. Andrew Novak 15.4
  10. Wyndham Clark 14.5
  11. Daniel Berger 13.5
  12. Doug Ghim 13.1
  13. Greyson Sigg 13.1
  14. Si Woo Kim 11.7
  15. Mark Hubbard 11.1
  16. Victor Perez 10.8
  17. Taylor Moore 10.8
  18. Scott Stallings 10.7
  19. Davis Thompson 10.4
  20. Aaron Rai 10.1

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Tom Hoge 44.6
  2. Scottie Scheffler 38.9
  3. Ryan Moore 27.4
  4. Chez Reavie 24.3
  5. Tony Finau 23.5
  6. Will Zalatoris 21.3
  7. Sam Ryder 20.3
  8. Joel Dahmen 19.5
  9. Mark Hubbard 18.6
  10. Aaron Rai 17.9
  11. Davis Thompson 17.7
  12. Greyson Sigg 17
  13. Daniel Berger 16.9
  14. Doug Ghim 14.6
  15. Scott Stallings 14.4
  16. Andrew Novak 14
  17. Luke List 13.4
  18. Justin Lower 13.3
  19. Jhonattan Vegas 13
  20. Sahith Theegala 11.8

In 2022, 27% of strokes gained at Memorial Park came from around the greens. That was the highest rate on the PGA Tour. Most of the greens fall off around the edges to short-grass runoff areas and really test the short games of these players. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 24 rounds)

  1. Mackenzie Hughes 17
  2. S.H. Kim 15.6
  3. Padraig Harrington 14.7
  4. Aaron Baddeley 13.7
  5. Scottie Scheffler 13.2
  6. C.T. Pan 12.9
  7. Zac Blair 12.3
  8. Adam Long 11.8
  9. Bud Cauley 10.5
  10. Andrew Novak 9.8
  11. Jason Day 9
  12. Stewart Cink 8.5
  13. Martin Trainer 8.1
  14. J.J. Spaun 7.7
  15. K.H. Lee 7.6
  16. Ben Griffin 7.4
  17. Robby Shelton 7.2
  18. Austin Cook 7.1
  19. Joe Highsmith 6.2
  20. Si Woo Kim 6

Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Mackenzie Hughes 19.6
  2. Aaron Baddeley 18.7
  3. Adam Long 16.8
  4. S.H. Kim 16.7
  5. Bud Cauley 15.8
  6. Scottie Scheffler 14.8 
  7. Padraig Harrington 14.7
  8. Si Woo Kim 12.1
  9. Austin Cook 11.5
  10. Beau Hossler 11.2
  11. Zac Blair 11
  12. K.H. Lee 10.5
  13. Stewart Cink 10.4
  14. Jason Day 10.3
  15. J.J. Spaun 9.9
  16. Martin Laird 9.9
  17. Andrew Novak 9.3
  18. Alex Noren 9.3
  19. Wyndham Clark 8.3
  20. Ben Griffin 8.2
  21. Stephan Jaeger 8.1

Although Memorial Park should play easier than previous years with the shortened and easier ryegrass rough, these greens are not easy to hit and even more difficult to get close. 

Bogeys Avoided (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Alex Noren 31.9
  2. Scottie Scheffler 29.5
  3. Aaron Baddeley 24.4
  4. Henrik Norlander 21.8
  5. Ryan Moore 20.2
  6. Billy Horschel 19.8
  7. Doug Ghim 19.1
  8. Taylor Montgomery 19
  9. Chesson Hadley 17.8
  10. Bud Cauley 16.6
  11. Ben Silverman 16.4
  12. Beau Hossler 16.2
  13. Stewart Cink 15.5
  14. Greyson Sigg 13.9
  15. Mackenzie Hughes 13.7
  16. Si Woo Kim 13.3
  17. Adam Long 12.9
  18. Joel Dahmen 12.8
  19. Tom Hoge 11.6
  20. Joseph Bramlett 11.5
  21. Ryan Palmer 11.1
  22. Ben Griffin 11

Memorial Park is one of the longer courses on the tour and the rough is now not all that penal. Plus, there are very few hazards off the tee. Unlike last week at Innisbrook where players club down, here players can use the driver frequently. 

Driving Distance Gained (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Chris Gotterup 17.03
  2. Cameron Champ 16.98
  3. Kevin Dougherty 15.96 (28 rounds)
  4. Alejandro Tosti 14.66 (32 rounds)
  5. Norman Xiong 12.59
  6. Gary Woodland 12.48
  7. Callum Tarren 12.39
  8. Pierceson Coody 12.32 (34 rounds)
  9. Vincent Norrman 12.25
  10. Garrick Higgo 12.09
  11. Jhonattan Vegas 11.79
  12. Paul Barjon 11.44
  13. Wyndham Clark 10.97
  14. Taylor Pendrith 10.94
  15. Jake Knapp 10.65
  16. Patrick Rodgers 10.05

Note: Average Yards Gained Per Drive vs. the rest of the Field

The par-5s are even a bit longer and more challenging; however, players have to take advantage here. 

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Doug Ghim 23.7
  2. Mackenzie Hughes 21
  3. Wyndham Clark 20.7
  4. Mark Hubbard 17.7
  5. Scottie Scheffler 17.4
  6. Beau Hossler 16.9
  7. Will Zalatoris 15.9
  8. Taylor Pendrith 15.6
  9. Jhonattan Vegas 15.2
  10. Keith Mitchell 14
  11. Scott Stallings 13.4
  12. Sahith Theegala 11.8
  13. Robert MacIntyre 11.3
  14. Bud Cauley 10.9
  15. Tony Finau 10.4
  16. Davis Thompson 10.4
  17. Stephan Jaeger 10.4
  18. Nate Lashley 10.3
  19. Cameron Champ 9.4 

In 2022, 34% of approaches came from 200+ yards, which is well above tour average.

Proximity Gained 200+ Yards (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Tom Hoge 27.94
  2. Thorbjorn Olesen 23.32
  3. Kevin Dougherty 21.55 (21 Rounds)
  4. Keith Mitchell 20.92
  5. Wilson Furr 20.6 (13 rounds)
  6. Luke List 19.81
  7. Tony Finau 18.41
  8. Adam Svensson 18.27
  9. Ryan Palmer 17.88
  10. Robert MacIntyre 15.52
  11. Harrison Endycott 14.99
  12. Andrew Novak 14.3
  13. Carson Young 13.47
  14. Cameron Davis 13.19
  15. Chad Ramey 12.26
  16. J.J. Spaun 12.11
  17. Matt Wallace 11.16
  18. Alex Smalley 10.69
  19. Taylor Pendrith 10.21

Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole 

Birdie Or Better Gained gives us context of how a player has been scoring as of late. 

Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 37.4
  2. Sahith Theegala 24.4
  3. Wyndham Clark 23.3
  4. Garrick Higgo 23.1
  5. Justin Suh 22.4
  6. Stephan Jaeger 22.3
  7. Sam Ryder 18.1
  8. Michael Kim 17.9
  9. Thomas Detry 16.6
  10. Beau Hossler 16.1
  11. Mark Hubbard 15.4
  12. Taylor Montgomery 15.1
  13. Brandon Wu 14
  14. Nate Lashley 13.5
  15. Sam Stevens 13.5
  16. Taylor Pendrith 13.5
  17. Akshay Bhatia 13
  18. Tom Hoge 12.9
  19. David Skinns 12.9
  20. Keith Mitchell 12.5
  21. Davis Thompson 12.4

The Bermudagrass is dormant here this time of year and the greens are a Poa Triv overseed, but we will look at just overall recent putting stats. 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Last 24 rounds)

  1. Taylor Montgomery 22.8
  2. Aaron Baddeley 21.5
  3. Sahith Theegala 19.6
  4. Garrick Higgo 17.9
  5. Billy Horschel 16.8
  6. Cameron Champ 15.7
  7. Wyndham Clark 15.7
  8. Justin Suh 15.4
  9. Peter Malnati 13.7
  10. Beau Hossler 12.8
  11. Sam Ryder 12.7
  12. Henrik Norlander 12.3
  13. Ryan Brehm 11.8
  14. Ben Griffin 11.8
  15. Jake Knapp 11.3
  16. Lanto Griffin 11.2
  17. Chad Ramey 11.1
  18. Stewart Cink 10.6
  19. Trace Crowe 10.2
  20. Matt Wallace 10.2

Strokes Gained: Putting (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Taylor Montgomery 37.7
  2. Aaron Baddeley 30.9
  3. Sahith Theegala 30.5
  4. Garrick Higgo 26.2
  5. Ben Griffin 22.7
  6. Wyndham Clark 22.3
  7. Chesson Hadley 20.4
  8. Billy Horschel 19.5
  9. Justin Suh 18.8
  10. Peter Malnati 18
  11. Matt Wallace 17.8
  12. Stewart Cink 16.4
  13. Sam Ryder 15.4
  14. Dylan Wu 15.2
  15. Beau Hossler 14.7
  16. Chad Ramey 14
  17. Jake Knapp 13.1
  18. Mackenzie Hughes 12.8
  19. Alex Noren 11.8
  20. Thomas Detry 11.2

While Memorial Park will play easier, the scoring will still be more difficult than the average course on the PGA Tour. 

Strokes Gained Total — Difficult Scoring Conditions (Last 36 rounds)

  1. Scottie Scheffler 113.9
  2. Wyndham Clark 79.3
  3. Will Zalatoris 75.9
  4. Daniel Berger 43.1
  5. Jason Day 42.8
  6. Justin Suh 41.5
  7. Sahith Theegala 41.4
  8. Ryan Fox 40.9
  9. Tony Finau 37.1
  10. Si Woo Kim 31.8
  11. Gary Woodland 29.5
  12. Taylor Moore 29.2
  13. Thomas Detry 28.9
  14. Ben Griffin 26.7
  15. Keith Mitchell 25.1
  16. Joseph Bramlett 24.3
  17. Cameron Davis 23.2
  18. Alex Smalley 23
  19. Robert MacIntyre 22.7
  20. Kurt Kitayama 22

Selections

Sahith Theegala (20-1, Circa Sports)

Theegala has three top-10 finishes in his last four events and kicked off 2024 with a runner-up at The Sentry. 

He can be a bit loose off the tee but has actually gained for that category in seven of eight starts this season. 

Theegala is now based in Houston and regularly plays this course. Plus, he ranks third in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 24 and 36 rounds, so he should thrive on these faster greens. 

Alex Noren (40-1, Circa Sports)

This seems like a low price on a player who, while having 10 DP World Tour victories, has yet to win on the PGA Tour and has not won anywhere in nearly six years. 

However, Noren always has an outstanding short game, and the ball striking, both with the driver and the irons, has been on an uptick of late. 

Over the last eight rounds, Noren ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Total and 13th for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Stephan Jaeger (50-1, Bet Rivers)

Jaeger finished top 10 here in 2022. 

While he has missed two of the last three cuts in Florida, Jaeger has two top-3 finishes this season (Torrey Pines and Mexico). 

Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 10th for Strokes Gained: Total and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. 

Jake Knapp (60-1, Circa Sports)

Knapp is just six weeks removed from his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Mexico Open. 

The following week he finished fourth at PGA National and then made cuts at Bay Hill and The Players.

He ranks sixth for Strokes Gained: Approach and 15th for Strokes Gained: Putting over the last 24 rounds. 

Joel Dahmen (85-1, Circa Sports)

Dahmen finished fifth here in 2021 and ninth in 2022. 

He is fifth for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds and ranked third last week at the Valspar for both SG: Approach and SG: Ball Striking. 

Andrew Novak (110-1, Circa Sports)

After a missed cut at The Players, Novak finished T-17 at the Valspar leading the field for Greens In Regulation and ranking fifth for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Novak also has a run of three top-10 finishes in Phoenix, Mexico and at PGA National. 

He ranks top 10 in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around The Green over the last 24 rounds. 

Matti Schmid (130-1, DraftKings)

The German ranks eighth for Strokes Gained: Total, ninth for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and 17th for Strokes Gained: Putting over the last eight rounds. 

He is a big hitter off the tee and has gone 17-26-10 over the last three weeks. 

Placement markets, matchups, and any other futures will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks

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