PGA Championship Preview and Best Bets

PGA Championship Preview and Best Bets:

The 107th PGA Championship, the second major of the 2024 calendar, will be held at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., this weekend. The PGA Championship was last held at Quail Hollow in 2017 and won by Justin Thomas (22-1 this week). 

As usual, the top two on the odds board are World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+450) and Rory McIlroy (5-1), who finally completed the career Grand Slam last month at the Masters and has won at Quail Hollow four times in his career. 

Xander Schauffele (20-1) has gotten off to a slow start in 2025 after missing two months with a rib injury, but last year’s PGA champion will attempt to defend his Wanamaker Trophy at Quail Hollow where he has finished runner-up in back-to-back years (2023, 2024) in the event now known as the Truist Championship. 

The last major championship played in the state of North Carolina was last summer at the 2024 U.S. Open and won by Bryson DeChambeau (11-1), who the LIV event a week ago in South Korea and is certainly looking to get redemption for a disappointing Sunday in the final pairing having to watch McIlroy take home the green jacket. 

Jon Rahm (20-1) has yet to win in 2025 but continues consistent form on LIV Golf, having never finished outside of the top 10 in any of those events since joining that tour in early 2024. 

2020 PGA champion Collin Morikawa (22-1) has played consistent golf but has not won anywhere since October 2023. 

Ludvig Åberg (25-1) found himself in contention once again at the Masters last month before a disappointing finish over the final two holes dropped him to seventh.

The midrange contingent on the board includes Joaquin Niemann (35-1), who has won three times on LIV Golf in 2025 and four times total worldwide since last December, Hideki Matsuyama (40-1), Tommy Fleetwood (45-1), Patrick Cantlay (45-1), Tyrrell Hatton (45-1), Viktor Hovland (50-1), three-time PGA Champion Brooks Koepka (50-1), Jordan Spieth (55-1), plus Sepp Straka (70-1) and Shane Lowry (60-1), who went 1-2 at last weekend’s Truist Championship. 

The Event

The PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club for the second time. It was first held here in 2017 when Justin Thomas (-8-276) won by two strokes over Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen and Patrick Reed. 

Quail Hollow is also typically the annual host for the Truist Championship (formerly Wells Fargo Championship) the week before the PGA. 

It also hosted the 2022 Presidents Cup, won by Team USA 17.5-12.5 over the International team. 

The PGA of America, with its current membership of 29,000 members, is an organization of golf professionals that was founded in 1916 by one-time American department store magnate Rodman Wanamaker, and the PGA Championship trophy bears his name. From 1916-1957, the PGA was a match-play event.

It remained in a match-play format right up until 1957, during which time Walter Hagen recorded five wins (tied for the most in tournament history), with players such as Sam Snead, Ben Hogan and Byron Nelson also claiming the trophy.

Jack Nicklaus tied Hagen for most wins in the stroke-play era, winning five times between 1963 and 1980.

Tiger Woods is third on that list of most PGA Championship wins with four, twice defending his title in 2000 and 2007. Gary Player and Lee Trevino, along with Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson in recent times, are among players to hoist the Wanamaker trophy on more than one occasion.

The Field

Even with 20 PGA of America club and teaching professionals in the field of 156 players, the PGA Championship is arguably the strongest field of the year with all of the OWGR Top 100 (sans Billy Horschel being out with an injury) participating this week. The top 70 and ties will make the 36-hole cut for the weekend. 

Here are the 156 players in this week’s field for the 107th PGA Championship:

The Course

Quail Hollow Club, built on land that was once the largest dairy farm in North Carolina, was founded as a private-member club in 1959 by James J. Harris, and the course was designed in 1961 by George Cobb, who is most famous for designing the par-3 course at Augusta National Golf Club. 

The layout has undergone several renovations under the auspices of Tom Fazio in 1997, 2003, 2012 and 2016. For the 2016 renovation leading into the 2017 PGA, Fazio changed the layout to a par-71 for tournament golf, but it still plays as a par-72 for the members.

This year’s layout is a par-71 of 7,626 yards, for the second-longest track on the PGA Tour this year.  The last time the PGA was held here in 2017, it played to an average of +2.47 per round, which ranked as the fifth-toughest major played since 2014.

Aside from the par-5s, there are three par-4s at 500 yards or longer, so Quail Hollow is a big, long course. Although it is big and long, the players consider the course to be a nice walk since the holes are positioned with the tee boxes right next to the preceding greens. 

Two par-4s are below 350 yards and will invite players to attempt to drive the greens. 

The fairways run at a 28-yard average width (seventh narrowest on tour) and are comprised of Bermudagrass with Ryegrass overseed (about a 50/50 split). The rough, per Keith Wood, who serves as the director of green and grounds at Quail Hollow, will measure 2.75 inches but could be closer to four inches on the weekend and is heavier on the Ryegrass side versus the Bermudagrass, which can stick to the club more. 

The renovations also entailed a changing of greens surfaces from MiniVerde Bermudagrass to Champion Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis. Similar greens can be found at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), TPC Southwind (WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational) and the Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms Championship). The greens will be fast running at 13 on the stimpmeter and measure out to an average size of 6,578 square feet (17th largest of 44 courses on tour). A SubAir system below the greens firms them up to play tougher on the weekend. 

While the layout is fairly straightforward without many tricks or even notable characteristics, Quail Hollow’s closing sequence (holes 16-18) is known as “The Green Mile,” which averages slightly less than a stroke over par. This stretch, one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour, includes the course’s signature hole, the par-3 17th, which requires a tee shot over a large pond to a green protected by bunkers on either side. Shots can frequently find the water over this stretch. In fact, more than 1,800 of them have found the drink over the last 20 years. 

There are 61 big bunkers on the course that mostly protect the greens, and water is in play on six holes. Even with all the renovations, Quail Hollow is a typical Carolina, tree-lined design.

The three par-5s (Holes 7, 10 and 15) plus the two short par-4s (8 and 14) are the scoreable holes at Quail Hollow. 

Golfweek magazine provides a hole-by-hole video flyover of Quail Hollow. 

In terms of course correlations, Torrey Pines South, Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, Memorial Park, Riviera, Winged Foot, Southern Hills, Valhalla and Bethpage Black are among the classical designs that have crossover to Quail Hollow.

Other Tom Fazio designs that have been featured on the PGA Tour:

Atunyote GC – 2007-10 Turning Stone Championship.

Conway Farms GC – 2013, 2015, 2017 BMW Championship.

Corales GC – Corales Championship

Eagle Point – 2017 Wells Fargo Championship

Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – 2008/09 Fry’s.com Open.

Shadow Creek Golf Course – 2020 CJ Cup.

Fazio has also had redesign input into:

Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.

Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.

Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic.

Weather

Practice was washed out on Monday at Quail Hollow, and showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as well with Friday looking like the day during play that will most likely have some rainfall per AccuWeather’s forecast. 

PGA Championship Recent History/Winners

2024: Xander Schauffele (-21/263) Valhalla; 14-1

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9/271) Oak Hill; 20-1

2022: Justin Thomas (-5/275) Southern Hills; 16-1*

2021: Phil Mickelson (-6/282) Kiawah Island; 250-1

2020: Collin Morikawa (-13/267) TPC Harding Park; 35-1

2019: Brooks Koepka (-8/272) Bethpage Black; 10-1

2018: Brooks Koepka (-16/264) Bellerive; 20-1**

2017: Justin Thomas (-8/276) Quail Hollow; 45-1

2016: Jimmy Walker (-14/266) Baltusrol; 125-1

2015: Jason Day (-20/268) Whistling Straits; 14-1

2014: Rory McIlroy (-16/268) Valhalla; 5-1***

2013: Jason Dufner (-10/270) Oak Hill; 40-1

2012: Rory McIlroy (-13/275) Kiawah Island; 20-1

2011: Keegan Bradley (-8/272) Atlanta Athletic; 175-1****

2010: Martin Kaymer (-11/277) Whistling Straits; 50-1*****

Playoff win over Will Zalatoris – *

All-time PGA Championship 72-hole scoring record – **

Largest margin of victory at PGA Championship – ***

Playoff win over Jason Dufner – ****

Playoff win over Bubba Watson – *****

Here are also the recent winners of the Truist (formerly Wells Fargo) Championship held at Quail Hollow. 

2024: Rory McIlroy (-17/267); 8-1

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19/265); 75-1

2021: Rory McIlroy (-10/274); 18-1

2019: Max Homa (-15/269); 500-1

2018: Jason Day (-12/272); 20-1

2016: James Hahn (-9/279); 500-1*

2015: Rory McIlroy (-21/267); 7-2

2014: J.B. Holmes (-14/274); 66-1

2013: Derek Ernst (-8/280); 500-1**

2012: Rickie Fowler (-14/274); 50-1***

2011: Lucas Glover (-15/273); 110-1****

2010: Rory McIlroy (-15/273); 66-1

Playoff win over Roberto Castro – *

Playoff win over David Lynn – **

Playoff win over Rory McIlroy & D.A. Points – ***

Playoff win over Jonathan Byrd – ****

PGA Championship Recent Trends

• ​10 of the last 15 PGA champions have been younger than 30 years of age.
• 10 of the last 14 PGA champions have been Americans. 
• 7 of the last 13 PGA champions were ranked in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) top 10.
• 8 of the last 13 and five of the last eight PGA champions had already picked up at least one victory earlier in the season.
• 12 of the last 14 PGA Champions had earned at least a top-20 finish in their previous start before the PGA. 
• 11 of the last 16 PGA champions had 5 or less starts in the PGA.
• 12 of the last 13 PGA champions had at least a top 20 or better in a previous PGA Championship start.
• 18 of the last 19 PGA champions had at least a top 30 or better in a previous PGA Championship start. 
• 4 of the last 5 PGA champions finished in the top 10 at the Masters in the month prior (since the PGA Championship moved from August to May). 

Statistical Analysis

The last two winners here at Quail Hollow — Rory McIlroy and Wyndham Clark — ranked fourth and first, respectively, for Strokes Gained: Approach during their winning weeks. 

The Greens In Regulation rate here is only around 61%, so iron precision is paramount. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.137
2. Sepp Straka 1.137
3. Dean Burmester 1.122
4. Rasmus Neergaard Petersen 1.028
5. Tyrrell Hatton 0.998
6. Collin Morikawa 0.939
7. Shane Lowry 0.906
8. Patrick Cantlay 0.888
9. Justin Thomas 0.788
10. Sami Valimaki 0.775
11. Xander Schauffele 0.751
12. Brooks Koepka 0.748
13. Rory McIlroy 0.722
14. Viktor Hovland 0.677
15. John Parry 0.639
16. Kevin Yu 0.635
17. Daniel Berger 0.599
18. J.J. Spaun 0.594
19. Tommy Fleetwood 0.590
20. Russell Henley 0.581
21. Brian Campbell 0.579
22. Max McGreevy 0.571
23. Rico Hoey 0.559
24. Bud Cauley 0.536
25. David Puig 0.532
26. Richard Bland 0.510

At over 7,600 yards and with little penalty for missing fairways, Quail Hollow will be a heavy driver usage course.

Average Driving Distance (Last 36 rounds)

1. Bryson DeChambeau 331.59
2. Dean Burmester 326.64
3. Joaquin Niemann 326.49
4. David Puig 325.80
5. Tom McKibbin 320.98
6. Jon Rahm 320.36
7. Niklas Norgaard 319.58
8. Min Woo Lee 316.55
9. Kurt Kitayama 314.65
10. Rasmus Højgaard 313.97
11. Jimmy Walker 313.95
12. Cameron Young 313.44
13. Keith Mitchell 313.03
14. Rory McIlroy 312.88
15. Wyndham Clark 312.66
16. Gary Woodland 312.62
17. Brooks Koepka 312.42
18. Nicolai Højgaard 312.41
19. Laurie Canter 311.80
20. Cameron Young 311.76
21. Taylor Moore 311.19
22. Jake Knapp 310.38
23. Elvis Smylie 310.03

Six of the par-4s measure 450-500 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4s 450-500 Yards — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 0.872
2. Jon Rahm 0.726
3. Rasmus Neergaard Petersen 0.650
4. Justin Thomas 0.635
5. Daniel Berger 0.621
6. Nick Taylor 0.595
7. Aaron Rai 0.522
8. Sepp Straka 0.482
9. Denny McCarthy 0.433
10. J.T. Poston 0.419
11. Bud Cauley 0.414
12. Brooks Koepka 0.405
13. Dustin Johnson 0.405
14. Phil Mickelson 0.405
15. Stephan Jaeger 0.403
16. Patton Kizzire 0.380
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.380
18. Keegan Bradley 0.377
19. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.358
20. Takumi Kanaya 0.346
21. Justin Lower 0.330
22. Robert MacIntyre 0.324
23. Hideki Matsuyama 0.319
24. Joe Highsmith 0.315
25. Max McGreevy 0.300

There are some shaved runoff areas and false fronts around the greens that players will have to contend with that can make chipping difficult. Plus, the greens are faster here, and the green complexes are difficult. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Cameron Smith 0.735
2. Jon Rahm 0.652
3. Hideki Matsuyama 0.596
4. Sungjae Im 0.538
5. Min Woo Lee 0.503
6. Andrew Novak 0.471
7. Tom McKibbin 0.462
8. Si Woo Kim 0.459
9. Matt Wallace 0.457
10. Bryson DeChambeau 0.448
11. Garrick Higgo 0.428
12. Taylor Moore 0.395
13. Justin Thomas 0.385
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.381
15. Beau Hossler 0.374
16. Brooks Koepka 0.373
17. Jason Day 0.371
18. Mackenzie Hughes 0.359
19. Patrick Reed 0.358
20. Harry Hall 0.356

Scrambling Percentage (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 72.3%
2. Shane Lowry 71.1
3. Andrew Novak 70.6
4. Bryson DeChambeau 70.4
5. Min Woo Lee 70.3
6. Richard Bland 70.3
7. Tyrrell Hatton 70.0
8. Joaquin Niemann 69.8
9. Daniel Berger 69.5
10. Patrick Reed 68.7
11. Bud Cauley 68.4
12. David Puig 68.3
13. Cameron Smith 68.2
14. Rory McIlroy 68.2
15. Harris English 67.6
16. Thorbjørn Olesen 67.5
17. Tom Hoge 67.1
18. Seamus Power 66.9
19. Michael Kim 66.8
20. Nick Taylor 66.8
21. Ryo Hisatsune 66.5
22. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 66.4
23. Lee Hodges 66.2
24. Takumi Kanaya 66.0

Quail Hollow ranks as the sixth toughest course on tour to gain strokes putting. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Cameron Smith 0.945
2. Jacob Bridgeman 0.915
3. Sam Burns 0.910
4. Denny McCarthy 0.899
5. Takumi Kanaya 0.646
6. Max Greyserman 0.596
7. Marco Penge 0.578
8. Nico Echavarria 0.578
9. Rory McIlroy 0.526
10. Harris English 0.518
11. Sami Valimaki 0.498
12. David Puig 0.491
13. Harry Hall 0.485
14. Scottie Scheffler 0.483
15. Matt McCarty 0.471
16. Niklas Norgaard 0.445
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.444
18. Justin Thomas 0.442
19. Akshay Bhatia 0.439
20. Jake Knapp 0.433
21. Jordan Spieth 0.422
22. Nick Dunlap 0.417
23. Patrick Rodgers 0.403

Nearly all the around the green and putting numbers are more difficult at Quail Hollow than the average tour course and that’s in a non-major championship setup. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 9.5%
2. Jon Rahm 9.6
3. Joaquin Niemann 9.6
4. Tyrrell Hatton 10.3
5. Bryson DeChambeau 10.8
6. Shane Lowry 10.9
7. Patrick Reed 11.8
8. Robert MacIntyre 12.1
9. Michael Kim 12.3
10. Russell Henley 12.4
11. Lee Hodges 12.5
12. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 12.5
13. David Puig 12.6
14. Richard Bland 12.7
15. Rory McIlroy 12.8
16. Collin Morikawa 12.8
17. Alex Noren 13.0
18. Bud Cauley 13.0
19. Ryo Hisatsune 13.0
20. Takumi Kanaya 13.1
21. Harris English 13.1
22. Daniel Berger 13.2
23. Brooks Koepka 13.2
24. Cameron Smith 13.3

Note: Percentage of time player makes bogey.

At over 7,600 yards, Quail Hollow is a big and long course. 

Strokes Gained: Long Courses — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Jon Rahm 1.981
2. Scottie Scheffler 1.901
3. Rory McIlroy 1.840
4. Tyrrell Hatton 1.536
5. Sungjae Im 1.427
6. Xander Schauffele 1.374
7. Brian Campbell 1.369
8. Bryson DeChambeau 1.358
9. Tony Finau 1.301
10. Collin Morikawa 1.286
11. Cameron Smith 1.267
12. Corey Conners 1.217
13. Justin Thomas 1.194
14. Joaquin Niemann 1.152
15. Patrick Reed 1.028
16. Bud Cauley 1.016
17. Viktor Hovland 0.957
18. Patrick Cantlay 0.949
19. Sam Stevens 0.940
20. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.932
21. Will Zalatoris 0.876
22. Gary Woodland 0.862
23. Jordan Spieth 0.859
24. Dustin Johnson 0.829
25. Hideki Matsuyama 0.810
26. Stephan Jaeger 0.808
27. Akshay Bhatia 0.800

Selections

Bryson DeChambeau (+950, DraftKings)

DeChambeau fell short at the Masters last month and should be out for redemption here. 

He has won two U.S. Opens (Winged Foot, Pinehurst No. 2) and was runner-up at the PGA held at Valhalla last year. Plus, he was fourth at Oak Hill in the 2023 PGA and has been fifth and sixth at the Masters over the last two years, so he has a proven record on long, classical courses. 

DeChambeau also won his last time out at the LIV event in Korea, which is not exactly ideal preparation for this week, but it is a victory that at least shows good form. 

He leads the world in Driving Distance but is also seventh on LIV for Driving Accuracy, so he has a complete game off the tee. 

DeChambeau has also finished fourth (2018) and ninth (2021) on his last two visits to Quail Hollow, so he has the course experience as well.

Xander Schauffele (22-1, DraftKings)

A rib injury put the defending PGA champion behind schedule in 2025. 

However, he is slowly working his way back into form with four finishes of 18th or better in his last four starts, including an eighth at the Masters.

Schauffele finished T-11 last week at the Truist Championship but led the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee in Sunday’s final round. 

He has also finished runner-up on this course each of the last two years. 

Ludvig Åberg (28-1, Circa Sports)

The Swede’s triple bogey-bogey finish dropped him from third to seventh at last month’s Masters.

He has had a couple of finishes well down the board at the RBC Heritage and last week’s Truist, which has caused his price to drift upwards a bit. 

Åberg has proved himself on lengthy courses, as evidenced by his Genesis Invitational victory at Torrey Pines earlier this year. 

Joaquin Niemann (33-1, FanDuel)

Niemann has yet to post a top-10 finish in 23 career major championships, so he is a bit of a wild card this week.

However, he has won four times in the last five months and is one of the longest hitters off the tee in the entire game. 

He won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in 2022, so he is proven on classical golf courses, even if he is not in major championships. 

Patrick Cantlay (45-1, DraftKings)

Cantlay does not have a standout record at Quail Hollow, but he might be sneakily rounding into form.

In last week’s fourth at the Truist, he led the field for Greens In Regulation and was third for Strokes Gained: Approach.

The ball striking has been there, but the putting has been slow to come around, although he did gain almost three and a half strokes with the putter in last Sunday’s final round. 

Viktor Hovland (55-1, FanDuel)

Hovland finished third on debut at Quail Hollow in 2021. 

The 2025 season has been a topsy-turvy one for the Norwegian, but he did just win six weeks ago at the Valspar. 

He has come alive in the last two PGA Championships, having finished second at Oak Hill in 2023 and third last year at Valhalla. In fact, his last eight PGA Championship rounds are as follows: 68-66-66-66-68-67-70-68.

Patrick Reed (90-1, DraftKings)

While Reed may not leap off the page to win here this week, he does have good career form at Quail Hollow with a runner-up to Justin Thomas in the 2017 PGA along with a sixth in 2021 and an eighth in 2018. 

Reed’s finish of third at the Masters last month vaulted him into the OWGR Top 50. 

Placement markets, props, and any matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks