RBC Canadian Open Best Bets and Golf Odds

RBC Canadian Open Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Scottie Scheffler hung around at last weekend’s Memorial Tournament in the early rounds before taking the lead for good at the end of Saturday’s third round. The World No. 1 ended up repeating as Memorial champion, winning by four strokes over Ben Griffin, the previous week’s winner at Colonial. Scheffler led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and Scrambling.

Scheffler was 3-1 to repeat at last weekend’s Memorial, and is the same price for next week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont. Fortunately for the rest of the field, he is not part of this week’s field in Toronto for the RBC Canadian Open. 

However, two-time RBC Canadian Open champion Rory McIlroy (+450) returns to action for the first time since the PGA Championship to headline this week at TPC Toronto, a first-time course for this event. 

Ludvig Åberg (14-1) has had his struggles this spring but did post a top-20 last week (T-16) courtesy of a final-round 66. 

Corey Conners (20-1) leads the Canadian contingent north of the border this week. 

Shane Lowry (22-1) is a regular participant in this event and finished runner-up to his mate McIlroy in 2019 at Hamilton Golf Club. 

Robert MacIntyre (28-1) is the defending champion of the event, having won last year at Hamilton. 

Canadian Taylor Pendrith (28-1) finished fifth at the PGA Championship three weeks ago and 12th last week at the Memorial. 

Sam Burns (30-1), Sungjae Im (35-1), 2023 RBC Canadian Open Nick Taylor (50-1), Wyndham Clark (55-1) and Justin Rose (75-1) are other OWGR Top 40 players in this week’s field. 

Three notables make their professional debuts this week: Luke Clanton (40-1), a two-time runner up on the PGA Tour last year as an amateur, 2022 NCAA champion Gordon Sargent (125-1) — both having earned membership as part of the PGA Tour University Accelerated program, and David Ford (200-1), who finished No. 1 in the PGA Tour University standings for 2025. 

The Event​

The RBC Canadian Open, organized by national sanctioning body Golf Canada, was first played in 1904. The tournament has been held annually apart from World Wars I and II (1915-1918; 1943-1944), and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. This year’s RBC Canadian Open will mark the 112th edition, and it is the third-longest event on the PGA Tour behind the British Open and the U.S. Open. Furthermore, it is the only national championship that is a PGA Tour-managed event. The British Open, the U.S. Open and the Canadian Open have been referred to as the “Triple Crown of the PGA Tour.” Only two players in history have held this Triple Crown in the same year — Lee Trevino in 1971 and Tiger Woods in 2000. Meanwhile, only six players have won all three national opens — Trevino, Woods, Tommy Armour, Walter Hagen, Arnold Palmer and Rory McIlroy.

Celebrated Canadian Open winners include World Golf Hall of Fame members Leo Diegel, Walter Hagen, Tommy Armour, Harry Cooper, Lawson Little, Sam Snead, Craig Wood, Byron Nelson, Doug Ford, Bobby Locke, Bob Charles, Arnold Palmer, Kel Nagle, Billy Casper, Gene Littler, Lee Trevino, Curtis Strange, Greg Norman, Nick Price, Vijay Singh, Mark O’Meara, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy.

The event has been held all over Canada, with Jack Nicklaus-designed Glen Abbey (in Oakville, Ontario) being the most frequent host, serving as the venue for 30 Canadian Opens. Royal Montreal Golf Club is second with 10. 

A Canadian player had not won the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954 until 2023 when Nick Taylor won at Oakdale in a playoff over Tommy Fleetwood. 

The Field

Eight of the OWGR Top 25 players are in Canada this week as part of this week’s 156-player field at the RBC Canadian Open.

They will compete for a purse of $9.8 million. The leading three players not already exempt who make the cut at the Canadian Open will earn a place in the British Open at Royal Portrush in July.

The Course

The North course at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley plays host to the RBC Canadian Open for the first time and will also host it again next year. The course is located in Caledon, Ontario, which is about an hour’s drive from Toronto. 

The track will play as a par-70 of 7,389 yards. Doug Carrick, a Toronto-based golf course architect, originally designed this layout in 2001. Ian Andrew, also a Canadian-based architect, received rave reviews for his restoration of St. George’s, which hosted the 2022 Canadian Open won by Rory McIlroy. This course is his newest project, which he restored and renovated in 2023, extending a 7,100-yard course to just under 7,400 yards. The 7,389 mark makes it the second-longest par-70 this season on the PGA Tour.

The course previously hosted the Osprey Valley Open in 2019 on PGA Tour Canada, which was won at 25 under par by Paul Barjon. Canadian Taylor Pendrith finished runner-up. 

In what could be an interesting layout for live betting, it starts with a par-5 on the first hole and ends with a par-5 on 18. Those who start on the back nine will play back-to-back par-5s and the 18th and the first. The sixth and 12th will also be drivable par-4s during some rounds. 

There are five par-4s at or over 500 yards, so players will be forced to hit longer irons and there will not be as many wedge shots this week.

Many of the holes are sweeping doglegs to elevated greens. The Bentgrass/Poa Annua fairways are fairly generous at 37 yards wide. Nevertheless, the Kentucky Bluegrass rough will be close to four inches thick, so there is a penalty for missing fairways.

There are only three water hazards on the course, so any trouble off the tee will be from the rough. 

Aside from narrowing some of the fairway landing areas, tree removal, new tee boxes, new bunkers (only 48 on course), Andrew also added more short-grass chipping areas around the Bentgrass/Poa Annua greens, which average around 6,500 square feet and will run for an average green speed at 12 on the stimpmeter. However, the green complexes are fairly straightforward here without much to them. 

Potential correlated courses include St. George’s (also an Andrew renovation), TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit, Glen Abbey, TPC Deere Run, Philadelphia Cricket Club, Memorial Park. 

Hole flyover videos are provided on the TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley website.

Weather

AccuWeather’s forecast indicates temperatures in the mid- to low-70s, very light winds, and likely some rain on Thursday and Saturday. It has been a wet spring in Toronto, so the course could be softer than normal. 

RBC Canadian Open Recent History/Winners​

2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16/264); Hamilton; 100-1

2023: Nick Taylor (-17/271); Oakdale; 66-1*

2022: Rory McIlroy (-19/261); St. George’s; 10-1

2021: No Tournament due to COVID-19

2020: No Tournament due to COVID-19

2019: Rory McIlroy (-22/258); Hamilton; 10-1**

2018: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Glen Abbey; 7-1

2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21/267); Glen Abbey; 125-1***

2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12/276); Glen Abbey; 125-1

2015: Jason Day (-17/271); Glen Abbey; 9-1

2014: Tim Clark (-17/263); Royal Montreal; 66-1

2013: Brandt Snedeker (-16/272); Glen Abbey; 14-1

2012: Scott Piercy (-17/263); Hamilton; 50-1

2011: Sean O’Hair (-4/276); Shaughnessy; 100-1****

2010: Carl Pettersson (-14/266); St. George’s; 80-1

Playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood – *

All-Time Canadian Open scoring record – **

Playoff win over Charley Hoffman – ***

Playoff win over Kris Blanks – ****

Statistical Analysis

With this being a first-time course featured on the PGA Tour, we have no previous data but can still examine some potentially important categories. 

Strokes Gained: Approach is always a great place to start.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Shane Lowry 0.895
2. Henrik Norlander 0.893
3. Nick Taylor 0.558
4. Antoine Rozner 0.549
5. Nicolai Højgaard 0.536
6. Jackson Suber 0.528
7. Joel Dahmen 0.527
8. Doug Ghim 0.516
9. Kevin Yu 0.492
10. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.477
11. Robert MacIntyre 0.473
12. Steven Fisk 0.426
13. Taylor Pendrith 0.421
14. Lee Hodges 0.415
15. Andrew Putnam 0.387
16. Ryan Fox 0.380
17. Matti Schmid 0.372
18. Chan Kim 0.357
19. Rory McIlroy 0.353

With the lengthening of the course, there will be more long iron shots and fewer wedges into the greens. Most of the shots will be from 175 yards or more.

Average Proximity Gained 175-200 Yards — Yards Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Carson Young 15.32
2. Rafael Campos 12.75
3. Joel Dahmen 12.39
4. Matti Schmid 11.93
5. Antoine Rozner 11.63
6. Nicolai Højgaard 11.39
7. Alejandro Tosti 11.21
8. William Mouw 10.67 (28 rounds)
9. Henrik Norlander 10.44
10. Taylor Pendrith 9.81
11. Thomas Rosenmueller 9.39 (21 rounds)
12. Karl Vilips 9.04 (29 Rounds)
13. Cristobal Del Solar 8.87 (26 rounds)
14. Matt McCarty 8.15
15. Will Gordon 7.71

Average Proximity Gained 200+ Yards — Yards Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Jeremy Paul 17.26 (26 rounds)
2. Erik van Rooyen 17.14
3. Matti Schmid 16.98
4. Thorbjørn Olesen 15.05
5. Kurt Kitayama 14.63
6. Jackson Suber 14.44
7. Kris Ventura 13.10
8. Ludvig Åberg 11.81
9. Joel Dahmen 11,78
10. Nick Taylor 11.59
11. Taylor Dickson 11.46 (30 rounds)
12. Kaito Onishi 11.33 (28 rounds)
13. Charley Hoffman 11.25
14. Nick Hardy 11.08
15. Adam Schenk 10.81
16. Kevin Roy 10.76
17. Eric Cole 10.70
18. Rasmus Højgaard 10.17

Five of the par-4s are at or over 500 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4s 500+ Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Ben Kohles 11.3
2. Sungjae Im 10.9
3. Keith Mitchell 10.9
4. Rory McIlroy 10.3
5. Davis Riley 9.6
6. Corey Conners 9.5
7. Trevor Cone 9.4
8. Adam Svensson 9
9. Lee Hodges 8.6
10. Mac Meissner 8.4
11. Kurt Kitayama 7.7
12. Matti Schmid 7.6
13. Paul Waring 7.2
14. Sam Burns 7.2
15. Trey Mullinax 7.2
16. Matt Wallace 7.1
17. Mark Hubbard 7

At almost 7400 yards, this is a long course, especially for a par-70. While the bunkers are few, many of them are placed strategically in the fairways and will require lengthy carries. Driving Distance is important to examine for those reasons.

Average Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Niklas Norgaard 320.0
2. Rory McIlroy 319.3
3. Jesper Svensson 316.7
4. Kurt Kitayama 315.6
5. Rasmus Højgaard 314.0
6. Alejandro Tosti 314.0
7. Gary Woodland 314.0
8. Chris Gotterup 313.9
9. Keith Mitchell 313.9
10. Trey Mullinax 312.9
11. Luke List 312.2
12. Nicolai Højgaard 312.1
13. Matti Schmid 312.1
14. Isaiah Salinda 311.4
15. Will Gordon 311.0
16. Wyndham Clark 310.6
17. Steven Fisk 310.4
18. Tim Widing 310.2
19. Trevor Cone 310.0
20. Cameron Young 310.0

While distance is certainly an advantage, this course cannot just be completely overpowered due to the strategically placed fairway bunkers and the thick rough. 

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Rory McIlroy 0.776
2. Niklas Norgaard 0.696
3. Taylor Pendrith 0.671
4. Rico Hoey 0.646
5. Keith Mitchell 0.622
6. Jesper Svensson 0.587
7. Corey Conners 0.505
8. Luke List 0.504
9. Kevin Yu 0.492
10. Isaiah Salinda 0.472
11. Alex Smalley 0.470
12. Ludvig Åberg 0.444
13. Kurt Kitayama 0.444
14. Sungjae Im 0.443
15. Robert MacIntyre 0.427
16. Hayden Buckley 0.424
17. Thomas Rosenmueller 0.413
18. Steven Fisk 0.359
19. Ricky Castillo 0.355

Players who have performed well on longer courses in the long term should play well here.

Strokes Gained: Total — Long Courses (Last 36 rounds)

1. Rory McIlroy 85.2
2. Corey Conners 62.5
3. Ludvig Åberg 49.2
4. Alex Noren 38.8
5. Taylor Pendrith 36.9
6. Shane Lowry 36.4
7. Sam Burns 36.1
8. Sungjae Im 36
9. Doug Ghim 35.9
10. Matt Kuchar 35
11. Nate Lashley 32.4
12. Mark Hubbard 28
13. Justin Lower 25.3
14. Robert MacIntyre 24.7
15. Thorbjørn Olesen 24.5
16. Chan Kim 22.9 (28 rounds)
17. Andrew Putnam 21.6

The greens are not all that complex here from a putting standpoint, but there are some tricky short grass lies around them. Players will have some chip shots that are of above-average difficulty. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Matt Wallace 0.838
2. Matteo Manassero 0.636
3. Aaron Baddeley 0.604
4. Beau Hossler 0.523
5. Sungjae Im 0.501
6. Peter Malnati 0.498
7. Danny Willett 0.448
8. Taylor Moore 0.411
9. Alex Smalley 0.404
10. Andrew Putnam 0.355
11. Brice Garnett 0.293
12. Harry Hall 0.291
13. Mackenzie Hughes 0.287
14. Shane Lowry 0.285
15. Matt Kuchar 0.284
16. Alejandro Tosti 0.284
17. Wyndham Clark 0.265
18. Mac Meissner 0.265
19. Patrick Rodgers 0.258

The greens at TPC Toronto are a mix of Bentgrass and Poa Annua.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass/Poa Greens — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Harry Hall 0.78
2. Kevin Kisner 0.74
3. Sam Burns 0.67
4. Vince Whaley 0.57
5. Mackenzie Hughes 0.57
6. Brandt Snedeker 0.54
7. Sungjae Im 0.54
8. Kris Ventura 0.51
9. Thomas Detry 0.49
10. Justin Rose 0.48
11. Aaron Baddeley 0.45
12. Erik van Rooyen 0.44
13. Eric Cole 0.43
14. Lanto Griffin 0.41
15. Ben Silverman 0.41
16. Justin Lower 0.41
17. Luke List 0.35

Selections

Sam Burns (28-1, DraftKings)

Burns looks to be starting to find his game again with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. 

He leads the PGA Tour for putting by averaging 1.05 strokes gained per round on the greens.

Burns was fourth in the RBC Canadian Open in 2022 held at St. George’s (also renovated by Ian Andrew), which is a bit more wide open off the tee like TPC Toronto. 

He has also seen his best buddy Scottie Scheffler set the world on fire over the last month, so the motivation to get back in the winner’s circle is even higher. 

Taylor Pendrith (28-1, FanDuel)

There is always extra pressure on Canadian players to win their home open, and it has happened only once since 1954 (Nick Taylor, 2023). 

However, Pendrith has had success on this course, finishing runner-up in the 2019 Osprey Valley Open on what was then known as PGA Tour Canada before merging with PGA Tour Latinoamerica in 2024. 

Pendrith finished fifth at the PGA Championship and 12th last weekend at the Memorial, where he ranked second in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking behind eventual winner Scheffler, for his last two starts. 

Thorbjørn Olesen (50-1, BetMGM)

Olesen has two top-7 finishes (Valero, Myrtle Beach) in his last six overall starts. 

The Dane just earned one of the seven available spots on Monday at U.S. Open Final Qualifying, which was held at Lambton Golf and Country Club in nearby York, Ontario. 

He ranks 11th on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and 13th for Strokes Gained: Total. 

Kurt Kitayama (60-1, Bet365)

Kitayama ranks sixth on the PGA Tour for Driving Distance and 15th for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, plus ranks third on approaches from more than 200 yards.

He has a good track record on TPC courses with a fifth earlier this year at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson held at TPC Craig Ranch. Last year, he finished sixth at TPC Twin Cities, eighth at TPC Scottsdale and ninth at TPC Summerlin. 

Matti Schmid (80-1, BetMGM)

The German has four top-10s on the PGA Tour this year. Granted, three of them were at alternate events (Puerto Rico, Corales Puntacana and Myrtle Beach), but he stepped up in class two weeks ago to finish runner-up at the Charles Schwab Challenge held at Colonial, which is a tighter track that you would not think would fit his game. 

While he has missed two cuts in this event, Oakdale and Hamilton are tighter tracks off the tee and TPC Toronto is more wide open for a bomber off the tee — 15th in Driving Distance — like Schmid.

Erik van Rooyen (100-1, FanDuel)

EVR was a distant second to Scottie Scheffler at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, but TPC Craig Ranch appears to have some correlation to this week’s venue at TPC Toronto.

The South African dusted the field by six strokes (13 under par over two rounds) at the Columbus, Ohio, site for U.S. Open Final Qualifying on Monday. 

Any additional outrights, placement markets, or matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com-picks