Sanderson Farms Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds

Sanderson Farms Championship:

Last weekend, Team USA won its 10th consecutive Presidents Cup over the International team, 18.5 to 11.5. 

This weekend, the PGA Tour returns from a three-week break at the Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi. Since the event is right after the Presidents Cup and the DP World Tour has an outstanding field of European players at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, this week’s field lacks a true headliner. 

Many players are here this week to get a leg up in the FedEx Cup Fall point standings, including Keith Mitchell (22-1), Mackenzie Hughes (25-1), who was part of the losing International team at the Presidents Cup last week but was the winner of this event two years ago, Maverick McNealy (28-1) and Seamus Power (28-1). 

Patrick Fishburn, who was third three weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship, is priced at 30-1 along with J.J. Spaun and Nick Dunlap, already a two-time winner on the PGA Tour this year and the highest-ranked OWGR player in this week’s field at No. 34. 

Ben Griffin (33-1) was part of a five-way playoff here last year eventually won by Luke List (66-1). 

The Event

The Sanderson Farms Championship has been part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1968 when it began as the Magnolia State Classic. It has had a variety of names over the years, including the Deposit Guaranty Golf Classic, Southern Farm Bureau Classic, Viking Classic and the True South Classic before Sanderson Farms, the third-largest poultry producer in the United States and based in Laurel, Miss., took over as the title sponsor in 2013. The tournament began as a satellite event (money earned counted, but wins were unofficial) but became an official tour event in 1994. After spending nearly a quarter-century as an alternate event, it became a full tour event in 2019. The winner now gets full FedEx Cup points, a two-year tour exemption and spots in the Masters, PGA, Players and Sentry TOC. 

The Field

The Sanderson Farms Championship will have 132 players in this week’s field. 

Here is the full field list courtesy of PGA Tour Communications.

The Course

The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Miss., has hosted the Sanderson Farms since 2014. The CC of Jackson was designed in 1962 by Dick Wilson and redesigned by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008. The track plays as a par-72 of 7,461 yards and there are only 56 bunkers and seven water hazards (in play on five holes). The Bermuda fairways are flat and relatively narrow (seventh-narrowest on tour — 29 yards average fairway width). The Bermuda/Zoysia rough is not all that penal at just two inches. 

The Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermuda Greens are 6,200 square feet on average and fast (12-13 stimpmeter). Fought was a longtime admirer of Donald Ross, so the greens are raised, slope from back to front and have run-off areas, which are Ross trademarks. The green surfaces resemble TPC Southwind, Trinity Forest, Quail Hollow and Sedgefield. 

Along with fast greens, three of the four par-5s are quite lengthy at over 580 yards, so these will be three-shot holes for much of the field. 

The 72-hole tournament record is 263 set by Dan Halldorson (1986 at Hattiesburg GC). The record on this CC of Jackson track is 266, set by Sam Burns in 2021.

The CC of Jackson course record is 61, set by Will Zalatoris in the second round of the 2021 tournament. 

Correlated courses to the Country Club of Jackson include Sedgefield, Memorial Park, Golf Club of Houston, Detroit Golf Club, Silverado and Congaree. 

Sanderson Farms Championship Recent History

2023: Luke List (-18/270); 50-1*

2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17/271); 130-1**

2021: Sam Burns (-22/266); 16-1

2020: Sergio Garcia (-19/269); 70-1

2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18/270); 66-1***

2018: Cameron Champ (-21/267); 66-1

2017: Ryan Armour (-19/269); 125-1

2016: Cody Gribble (-20/268); 125-1

2015: Peter Malnati (-18/270); 250-1

2014: Nick Taylor (-16/272); 400-1

Playoff win over Ludvig Åberg, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Scott Stallings – *

Playoff win over Sepp Straka – **

Playoff win over Sungjae Im – ***

Trends and Angles

Four of the last six winners (Burns, Garcia, Munoz, and Champ) rated first, first, fourth and second for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee during their respective winning weeks.

• Six of the last 10 winners have been first-time winners on the PGA Tour.

Statistical Analysis

Three of the last four winners here have ranked sixth or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks.

Strokes Gained Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Doug Ghim 0.681
2. Keith Mitchell 0.669
3. Chez Reavie 0.531
4. Greyson Sigg 0.512
5. Lucas Glover 0.511
6. J.J. Spaun 0.502
7. Henrik Norlander 0.498
8. Patton Kizzire 0.491
9. Andrew Novak 0.474
10. Jhonattan Vegas 0.469
11. Chan Kim 0.462
12. Sam Ryder 0.400
13. Joel Dahmen 0.389
14. Kevin Yu 0.378
15. Mac Meissner 0.375
16. Dylan Wu 0.366

A little over one-third of the approach shots will be wedges in the 100- to 150-yard range.

Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards — Average Feet Gained Per Round Toward Hole — (Last 50 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 6.24
2. Philip Knowles 6.16 (15 rounds)
3. Patton Kizzire 5.92
4. Roger Sloan 5.56
5. Lucas Glover 5.10
6. Taylor Montgomery 5.03
7. Troy Merritt 4.66
8. Kevin Streelman 4.63
9. J.J. Spaun 4.52
10. Cody Gribble 4.09
11. Sam Ryder 3.36
12. Charley Hoffman 3.30
13. Ryan Fox 3.29
14. Seamus Power 3.25
15. Ben Kohles 3.12
16. Joseph Bramlett 3.05

Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards — Average Feet Gained Per Round Towards Hole (Last 50 rounds)

1. Chan Kim 10.89
2. Nicholas Lindheim 8.87
3. Justin Lower 6.40
4. Robby Shelton 5.88
5. Austin Smotherman 5.75
6. Taylor Montgomery 5.23
7. Roger Sloan 4.89
8. Lucas Glover 4.37
9. Chesson Hadley 4.23
10. Ben Kohles 4.17
11. Keith Mitchell 4.15
12. Bud Cauley 4.15
13. Doug Ghim 4.13
14. Emiliano Grillo 4.11

The average winning score here the last decade has been around 19 under par as the course ranks in the top 25 percentile of least difficulty on the PGA Tour.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.94%
2. Michael Kim 24.44
3. Patton Kizzire 24.38
4. Chan Kim 24.37
5. Nick Dunlap 24.21
6. Jacob Bridgeman 23.89
7. Jhonattan Vegas 23.88
8. Maverick McNealy 23.83
9. Trace Crowe 23.78
10. Hayden Springer 23.74
11. Sam Ryder 23.68
12. Charley Hoffman 23.63
13. Pierceson Coody 23.59
14. Justin Lower 23.56
15. Chandler Phillips 23.55

The par-5s are more difficult here at CC of Jackson due to length and one of the holes (11th) having water down the entire right side of the fairway. The eagle rate on these par-5s is only 1.3%

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. SH Kim 22.4
2. Hayden Springer 20.5
3. Sam Stevens 18
4. Seamus Power 15.8
5. Jhonattan Vegas 15.6
6. Nick Dunlap 15.2
7. Rico Hoey 15.1
8. Paul Barjon 14.8
9. Patrick Fishburn 14.3
10. Austin Smotherman 13.8
11. Eric Cole 13.6
12. Charley Hoffman 13.1
13. Cameron Champ 13
14. Davis Riley 12.7
15. Joe Highsmith 12.4
16. Kevin Tway 12.4
17. Mac Meissner 12.1

Driving distance off the tee has increased every from the previous year in five of the last six events largely due to non-penal rough and the fact that CC of Jackson is one of the straighter courses on the PGA Tour. 

Average Driving Distance (2024 PGA Tour)

1. Cameron Champ 321.0
2. Kevin Dougherty 317.0
3. Chris Gotterup 313.9
4. Alejandro Tosti 312.8
5. Hayden Springer 312.2
6. Jhonattan Vegas 312.1
7. Paul Barjon 311.1
8. Keith Mitchell 311.1
9. Gary Woodland 310.7
10. Pierceson Coody 310.4
11. Rico Hoey 310.2
12. Carl Yuan 310.2
13. Kevin Yu 309.4
14. Joseph Bramlett 309.3
15. Stephan Jaeger 308.8
16. Callum Tarren 308.6
17. Garrick Higgo 308.5

In four of the last six years, the Sanderson Farms winner ranked top 4 in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee during their respective winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Cameron Champ 0.921
2. Kevin Dougherty 0.807
3. Keith Mitchell 0.737
4. Patrick Fishburn 0.695
5. Jhonattan Vegas 0.610
6. Rico Hoey 0.590
7. Kevin Yu 0.500
8. Hayden Springer 0.386
9. Alejandro Tosti 0.372
10. Maverick McNealy 0.367
11. Carson Young 0.357
12. Sam Stevens 0.342
13. Doug Ghim 0.333
14. Joel Dahmen 0.319

Six of the last eight winners at CC of Jackson have finished in the top six in putting for their respective winning weeks.

Strokes Gained Putting — Bermuda Greens — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Taylor Montgomery 0.99
2. Chad Ramey 0.87
3. Ben Griffin 0.74
4. Matt Kuchar 0.63
5. Blaine Hale 0.62 (4 rounds)
6. Maverick McNealy 0.60
7. Harris English 0.60
8. Justin Suh 0.59
9. Raul Pereda 0.54 (6 rounds)
10. Sam Ryder 0.50
11. Ryo Hisatsune 0.48 (16 rounds)
12. Mackenzie Hughes 0.44
13. Mac Meissner 0.42 (18 rounds)
14. Aaron Baddeley 0.40
15. Ryan Fox 0.38 (44 rounds)
16. Pierceson Coody 0.37 (30 rounds)

Selections

Patrick Fishburn (35-1, FanDuel)

Fishburn tied his best career PGA Tour finish with a third three weeks ago at the Procore Championship. 

He ranks second for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee over the last 24 rounds. 

Chan Kim (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Chan Kim ranks sixth for Strokes Gained: Total, eightth for Strokes Gained: Approach, eighth for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 15th for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee over his last 24 rounds. 

Mac Meissner (50-1, Circa Sports)

Meissner rates in the top 20 for Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Total for the last 24 rounds. 

He has posted two top-5s and three top-10s this season in his rookie PGA Tour season. 

Charley Hoffman (55-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Hoffman has made his last five cuts on tour, including eighth at the Barracuda and 12th at the Wyndham.

He finished sixth here in 2021. 

Henrik Norlander (70-1, FanDuel)

The Swede is probably too much of an obvious play here considering he has gone 4-4-24-2 here in his last four appearances.

Chandler Phillips (85-1, Circa Sports)

Phillips is fourth for Strokes Gained: Putting and 16th for Strokes Gained: Total over his last 24 rounds. 

Pierceson Coody (110-1, Circa Sports)

Coody, currently 121st in the FedEx Cup standings, needs a couple of good finishes to ensure his card. He has made each of his last nine cuts in a row and this looks like a sneaky spot for him to contend. 

Placement markets, matchups, and other wagers will be available on Wednesday at VSiN.com