Texas Children’s Houston Open Best Bets

Texas Children’s Houston Open Best Bets:

Viktor Hovland arrived at last week’s Valspar Championship on the back of three consecutive missed cuts. His price drifted upward to as high as 80-1 to win the event, but that is what he did in earning his seventh career PGA Tour victory. 

He shared the 54-hole lead after Saturday’s third round and won by one stroke over Justin Thomas, who got bitten by the Snake Pit with two bogeys in his final three holes after making 13 birdies over the two weekend rounds. Our nearest pursuer was Jacob Bridgeman, who also shared the 54-hole and first-round leads, along with being the 36-hole leader, before finishing third. 

The Florida swing has concluded, and a brief Texas two-step begins this week in Houston (San Antonio next week) before heading to Augusta for the Masters in two weeks. 

It is rare to have the World’s No. 1 and No. 2 players in an event that is not a major championship or “Signature” event, but that is what we have this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open as Scottie Scheffler (+350), two-time event runner-up (2022, 2024) and Rory McIlroy (7-1) are playing their last event before the Masters. 

After the big two, there are name players in this event, but a big drop on the odds board starting with Aaron Rai (28-1), who has finished seventh here in each of the last two Houston Opens and comes in with three consecutive top-15 finishes. 

J.J. Spaun (30-1) makes his first appearance since losing the three-hole aggregate playoff at The Players Championship to McIlroy two weeks ago and has accumulated two runners-up and a third already in 2025. 

Davis Thompson (30-1), Jason Day, Michael Kim, Sungjae Im and 2022 Houston Open champion Tony Finau (all at 35-1) make up the next rung of the board. 

Following them are Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim (both 40-1) and defending Houston Open champion Stephan Jaeger (45-1), whom we won with last year at 50-1. 

The Event  

The Houston Open’s history on the PGA Tour dates to 1946. After years at a variety of venues in the greater Houston area, the tournament returned to Memorial Park Golf Course last year for the first time since 1963. Golf legends and Hall of Famers, including Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Curtis Strange, Raymond Floyd, Payne Stewart, Fred Couples, Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson, have achieved victory here. Houston has long been a mainstay on the PGA Tour and Jim Crane, the owner of the Houston Astros who was once named the best CEO Golfer in America by Golf Digest, saved this tournament from extinction several years ago. Crane was the lead fundraiser for the major makeover of the city-owned Memorial Park course. Shell Oil Company sponsored the event from 1992 to 2017. Crane’s Astros Foundation operates the tournament and Texas Children’s Hospital is the tournament’s title sponsor. 

The Field

This week marks the opportunity to earn a Masters invitation via the Official World Golf Rankings. Players must be inside the top 50 after the conclusion of this event. Otherwise, they must win next week’s Valero Texas Open.

Here is the 155-player field this week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open:

The Course

In 2020, Memorial Park Golf Course served as the Houston Open venue for the first time in 57 years. It is a municipal course owned by the city of Houston and is rated the top municipal track in the state of Texas. The Astros Foundation, which operates the tournament, committed $34 million to the renovation and redesign. The greens fee for a weekend round is $38. John Bredemus designed the track in 1935, but Tom Doak, whose main influences include Alister MacKenzie and Pete Dye, finished the renovation in 2019, with an assist from Brooks Koepka. 

Memorial Park plays as a par-70 (five par-3s, three par-5s, 10 par-4s) of 7,435 yards. Aside from Torrey Pines, Memorial Park is the second-longest non-major course on the PGA Tour. Doak removed many trees, bunkers (only 21 on the course — fewest of any course on the PGA Tour) and water (only in play on four holes) to make it more playable to the public as around 55,000 rounds are played at Memorial Park in a calendar year.

Due to the tournament moving from its fall slot (where it had been held since 2020) to the spring, starting last year, the agronomy is completely different. The all-Bermudagrass course is now overseeded with Poa trivialis on the greens. But the biggest change is switching from penal 2.5-inch Bermuda rough to the much easier and shorter 1.25-inch ryegrass rough.

The greens (7,000 square foot average) will still be firm and rolling fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Many of the greens are elevated and also have run-off areas and false fronts. 

Three of the five par-3s are 200 yards or longer and eight par-4s are in the mid-400s in terms of yardage range with five of them being close to 500 yards or longer. 

Comparable courses include Golf Club of Houston, Renaissance Club, Southern Hills, Quail Hollow, Congaree, Augusta National, Colonial, TPC Scottsdale, PGA National and Riviera. 

Weather

Courtesy of AccuWeather, the worst of the conditions look to be on Friday, so expect some delays in play for Round 2. 

Temperatures will get warmer over the weekend, so we might get a softer course than usual. 

Winds look to be into the low to mid-teens, but nothing more than usual in Texas this time of year. 

Houston Open Recent History/Winners 

2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12/268); 50-1

​2023: No Tournament

2022: Tony Finau (-16/264); 22-1

2021: Jason Kokrak (-10/270); 50-1

2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13/267); 160-1

2019: Lanto Griffin (-14/274); 60-1

2018: Ian Poulter (-19/269); 100-1*

2017: Russell Henley (-20/268); 40-1

2016: Jim Herman (-15/273); 400-1

2015: J.B. Holmes (-16/272); 28-1**

2014: Matt Jones (-15/273); 125-1***

2013: D.A. Points (-16/272); 250-1

2012: Hunter Mahan (-16/272); 22-1

2011: Phil Mickelson (-20/268); 18-1

2010: Anthony Kim (-12/276); 25-1**** 

Playoff win over Beau Hossler – *

Playoff win over Jordan Spieth and Johnson Wagner – **

Playoff win over Matt Kuchar – ***

Playoff win over Vaughn Taylor – ****

​Note: From 2010-2018, the event was played in April, and all events were played at the Golf Club of Houston. In 2020, the Houston Open moved to a fall event at Memorial Park. 

Statistical Analysis

Since moving to Memorial Park, here are the rankings for Strokes Gained: Approach that the event winners have posted during their respective winning weeks:

2024: Jaeger +1.44 (37th) 

2022: Finau +5.32 (9th)

2021: Kokrak +6.44 (2nd) 

2020: Ortiz +3.48 (14th)

Memorial Park is not the easiest to gain strokes on approach due to the undulations of the greens. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. J.J. Spaun 1.030
2. Henrik Norlander 0.952
3. Jackson Suber 0.899
4. Nick Taylor 0.857
5. Scottie Scheffler 0.817
6. Nicolai Højgaard 0.683
7. Rory McIlroy 0.604
8. Joel Dahmen 0.555
9. Charley Hoffman 0.548
10. Ryan Gerard 0.518
11. Rico Hoey 0.481
12. Michael Kim 0.479
13. Aaron Rai 0.469
14. Kevin Yu 0.468
15. Doug Ghim 0.455

Around one-third of the approach shots will be from 200+ yards.

Proximity to the Hole Gained 200+ Yards — Average Feet Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Mark Hubbard 21.98
2. Jeremy Paul 20.14 (16 rounds)
3. Kurt Kitayama 18.16
4. Jackson Suber 18.05
5. Max Greyserman 17.13
6. Alejandro Tosti 16.33
7. Brandon Matthews 16.08
8. Gary Woodland 14.67
9. Harry Higgs 13.64
10. Kaito Onishi 13.52 (22 rounds)
11. Thorbjørn Olesen 13.51
12. Nicolai Højgaard 13.37
13. Wesley Bryan 13.06
14. Chandler Phillips 12.96
15. Rikuya Hoshino 12.82
16. Carl Yuan 12.42
17. Si Woo Kim 12.18

With few hazards on the course and fairly non-penal rough, players can frequently use the driver off the tee. 

Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aldrich Potgieter 320.2
2. Niklas Norgaard 317.5
3. Min Woo Lee 315.8
4. Gary Woodland 315.6
5. Rory McIlroy 315.0
6. Michael Thorbjornsen 314.6
7. Alejandro Tosti 314.6
8. Tim Widing 314.6
9. Vincent Norrman 313.7
10. Keith Mitchell 313.5
11. Jesper Svensson 313.5
12. Kurt Kitayama 313.2
13. Rasmus Højgaard 312.7
14. Steven Fisk 311.6
15. Chris Gotterup 311.0
16. Trey Mullinax 311.0
17. Adam Schenk 311.0
18. Wyndham Clark 310.8
19. Isaiah Salinda 310.3

Good Drive Percentage measures players that can still hit greens even when missing fairways. While the rough is not all that penal, the greens have some runoff areas and false fronts, so they are difficult to hold at times.

Good Drive Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Rai 87.91%
2. Steven Fisk 87.43
3. Victor Perez 86.76
4. Takumi Kanaya 86.21
5. Ricky Castillo 86.20
6. Rico Hoey 85.82
7. Matt McCarty 85.58
8. Nick Taylor 85.38
9. Brandt Snedeker 85.28
10. Ben Kohles 85.15
11. Doug Ghim 85.05
12. Ben Martin 84.91
13. Alex Smalley 84.72
14. Ryan Gerard 84.71
15. Zach Johnson 84.32
16. Henrik Norlander 84.05

Even with some Thursday and Friday rain, the greens are still sloped and will run fast, so players will have a test in avoiding bogeys and three-putts.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Michael Kim 10.95% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Scottie Scheffler 11.11
3. Danny Willett 11.76
4. J.J Spaun 12.12
5. Nick Taylor 12.22
6. Alex Smalley 12.30
7. Kevin Roy 12.32
8. Sam Ryder 12.33
9. Paul Peterson 12.35
10. Jeremy Paul 12.73
11. Henrik Norlander 12.76
12. Keith Mitchell 13.03
13. Nicolai Højgaard 13.19
14. Ricky Castillo 13.29
15. Quade Cummins 13.38
16. Brandt Snedeker 13.46
17. Rory McIlroy 13.54
18. Victor Perez 13.61
19. Jason Day 13.66
20. John Pak 13.74

Three-Putt Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Vince Whaley 0.60%
2. Braden Thornberry 0.74
3. Aaron Baddeley 0.79
4. Emiliano Grillo 0.93
5. Beau Hossler 1.30
6. Zach Johnson 1.31
7. Mason Andersen 1.32
8. Jason Day 1.39
9. Nicolai Højgaard 1.39
10. Jeremy Paul 1.39
11. Karl Vilips 1.39
12. Sam Ryder 1.56
13. Rickie Fowler 1.59
14. Davis Riley 1.59
15. Matti Schmid 1.65
16. Kevin Roy 1.69
17. Nico Echavarria 1.72
18. Chan Kim 1.72
19. Ryan Fox 1.74
20. Trey Mullinax 1.77

The course should play softer over the first two rounds and has played a bit easier since the agronomy and calendar change. Memorial Park is not an easy track by any stretch, but you can score on it.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Harry Hall 27.41%
2. Jesper Svensson 26.44
3. Niklas Norgaard 26.39
4. Danny Walker 26.33
5. Rory McIlroy 26.09
6. Aaron Rai 25.85
7. Maverick McNealy 25.79
8. Max Greyserman 25.76
9. Si Woo Kim 25.69
10. Sungjae Im 25.63
11. Wyndham Clark 25.46
12. Lee Hodges 25.28
13. Jake Knapp 25.23
14. Taylor Montgomery 25.00
15. Karl Vilips 25.00

Over the last four years at Memorial Park, it has been a bit of a putting contest.

Here are the numbers with the putter for the recent winners here:

2024: Jaeger +6.40 (3rd)

2022: Finau +7.92 (2nd)

2021: Kokrak +8.68 (3rd)

2020: Ortiz +6.12 (5th)

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Brandt Snedeker 0.983
2. Sam Ryder 0.861
3. Lee Hodges 0.847
4. Nico Echavarria 0.750
5. Jacob Bridgeman 0.727
6. Taylor Montgomery 0.692
7. Frankie Capan III 0.630
8. Rory McIlroy 0.606
9. Jake Knapp 0.602
10. Aldrich Potgieter 0.576
11. Sami Valimaki 0.574
12. Harry Hall 0.568
13. Min Woo Lee 0.568
14. Justin Lower 0.547
15. Danny Willett 0.530
16. Zach Johnson 0.503
17. Jesper Svensson 0.484
18. Thomas Detry 0.482
19. Sungjae Im 0.460
20. Nicolai Højgaard 0.449

With the speed of the greens, plus the runoff areas and false fronts, players will need a tidy short game to win here. A little over a quarter of all the strokes gained here are Strokes Gained: Around The Green.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season) 

1. Danny Willett 0.813
2. Aaron Baddeley 0.704
3. Peter Malnati 0.670
4. Alex Smalley 0.596
5. Matteo Manassero 0.543
6. Matt Wallace 0.506
7. C.T. Pan 0.490
8. Min Woo Lee 0.487
9. Beau Hossler 0.481
10. Michael Kim 0.454
11. Patton Kizzire 0.444
12. Mac Meissner 0.422
13. Harry Hall 0.406
14. Andrew Novak 0.388
15. Taylor Moore 0.375
16. Sungjae Im 0.365
17. Davis Thompson 0.364

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Danny Willett 73.91%
2. Scottie Scheffler 69.09
3. Michael Kim 68.84
4. Brandt Snedeker 68.45
5. Paul Peterson 68.22
6. Rory McIlroy 67.68
7. Henrik Norlander 66.88
8. Alex Smalley 66.88
9. Mac Meissner 66.67
10. Matt Wallace 66.34
11. Jacob Bridgeman 65.48
12. Andrew Novak 65.42
13. Davis Thompson 65.06
14. Min Woo Lee 64.71
15. John Pak 64.66
16. Sam Ryder 64.64
17. Greyson Sigg 64.63
18. Nick Taylor 64.63
19. Nate Lashley 64.57

Although Memorial Park has played easier over the last couple of years, it still ranked 12th most difficult out of 51 courses played on the PGA Tour last season.

Strokes Gained: Total — Difficult Scoring Conditions (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 106.4
2. Rory McIlroy 88.3
3. Wyndham Clark 49.6
4. Ryan Fox 36.9
5. Aaron Rai 34.8
6. Andrew Novak 34
7. Mackenzie Hughes 33.7
8. Victor Perez 30.4
9. Min Woo Lee 24.4
10. Si Woo Kim 24.4
11. Sam Stevens 22.8
12. Davis Thompson 21.6
13. Garrick Higgo 20.3
14. Jacob Bridgeman 18.7
15. Danny Willett 18.4
16. Chandler Phillips 18.1
17. Mark Hubbard 18.1

Selections

Min Woo Lee (35-1, DraftKings)

He is in solid form, with four top-20s in his last six starts.

Min Woo is a big hitter of the tee who can spray it all over the place, but that will not matter as much here.

He ranks top 15 in this field for all the short game statistics — Putting, Around the Green and Scrambling. 

Davis Thompson (35-1, DraftKings)

Thompson won his first event on the PGA Tour last year at the John Deere Classic, cashing an outright at 25-1 for us in the process.

This season has not been great for him so far, but he did finish 10th two weeks ago at The Players for his best finish of the season. 

He ranks in the top 10 in this field for both Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and top 15 for Scrambling.

Taylor Pendrith (50-1, BetRivers)

Pendrith has been dreadful with the putter and around the greens of late, but he did gain six strokes with the putter at The Players, so that is something to build on.

The Canadian ranks third for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and seventh for Total Driving on the PGA Tour. 

Sahith Theegala (55-1, BetMGM)

A bit of a speculative play, considering he only has one top-20 in nine PGA Tour starts this season.

He has been spraying it all over the place off the tee but will not get hurt with these wide fairways and non-penal rough.

Theegala ranks top 10 on the PGA Tour for Total Birdies, so he is capable of going low. 

Max Greyserman (78-1, Circa Sports)

Last year’s top-10 finish here was the beginning of a good rookie campaign for Greyserman. 

This year, he was better on the West Coast swing and finished 11th at the Cognizant Classic and 22nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the Florida swing.

Greyserman’s ball striking has not been in top form of late, but he can get away with it here on a wide-open layout with very few hazards.

Nicolai Højgaard (105-1, Circa Sports)

He was on the card last week and missed the cut, but this should be an ideal course for him. 

The Dane ranks sixth in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach and in the top 20 for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Aldrich Potgieter (150-1, BetMGM)

After his near-miss for us in losing the playoff at the Mexico Open, Potgieter has since missed three straight cuts on the Florida swing. 

Nevertheless, Memorial Park is not a positional driving course, and it favors big hitters like Potgieter, who ranks first on the tour for Driving Distance and ninth for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. 

Steven Fisk (175-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

This event is worth taking a couple of long shots with some bombers off the tee, and Fisk certainly qualifies ranking top 20 on the tour for Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.

The tour rookie is also ranked sixth on the tour for Greens In Regulation and he posted his best PGA Tour finish three weeks ago in Puerto Rico with a T-4. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be posted Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks