The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Best Bets and Golf Odds

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Andrew Novak and Ben Griffin (22-1 pre-tournament) had both been on the precipice of earning their maiden PGA Tour victories over the last two years. Griffin had event runners-up (2024 RBC Canadian Open; 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship) in consecutive seasons and five top-5s. Novak had a chance to get his first win two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage but lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas. He also had four top-3 finishes over the last months. Novak, a week removed from losing that playoff, and Griffin, two weeks removed from being the last man out of the Masters field, finally broke through and won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans by one stroke over Rasmus and Nicolai Højgaard. Griffin’s 35-foot birdie at 17 secured the victory at 28 under. Jake Knapp and Frankie Capan III, who were tied with Novak and Griffin through 16 holes until they found the water with their tee shot on 17, finished third. Defending champions Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry failed to make a Sunday surge as the Irishmen finished T-12 at 22 under.

This week, the PGA Tour returns to Dallas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson where Dallas resident and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+280) attempts to win in his adopted hometown. 

Fellow Dallas resident and lifelong native Jordan Spieth (18-1) last won on the PGA Tour three years ago, and there would be no more appropriate place to get off the schneid than in Big D.

Korean players have a good recent history in this event since the move to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021. Byeong Hun An (25-1) was fourth last year. Sungjae Im (22-1) makes his first appearance here and comes in off a missed cut last weekend in a Korean Tour event that he had won each of the last two years. Si Woo Kim (30-1) was runner-up here two years ago. 

Sam Burns (30-1), Scheffler’s best pal on the PGA Tour, was also a runner-up here in 2021. 

Taylor Pendrith (28-1) is the defending champion of this event. 

Numerous other Dallas-area residents will also be participating this week, including Will Zalatoris (50-1) and Tom Kim (60-1).

The Event

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is named after its first winner. Nelson won this tournament in 1944 when it was known as the Texas Victory Open. He lent his name to his event in 1968 and served as host until his death in 2016. The tournament is the all-time fundraising leader on the PGA Tour. The Salesmanship Club of Dallas is the event’s host organization, and it raises money for Momentous Institute, a youth social services organization based in Dallas. The event has always been played in the Dallas area throughout its run. 

South Korean conglomerate CJ Group took over the sponsorship last year and sponsored the CJ Cup event from 2017 to 2022. 

Many legends of the game have won this event, including Tom Watson (1975, 1978, 1979, and 1980), Sam Snead (1945, 1957, and 1958), Jack Nicklaus (1970, 1971), Byron Nelson (1944), Ben Hogan (1946), Phil Mickelson (1996), Tiger Woods (1997) and Sergio Garcia (2004, 2016).

This tournament was moved to TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney (32 miles northeast of downtown Dallas), in 2021.

With 500 FedEx Cup points, a $9.9 million purse, and the ability to play one’s way into next week’s “Signature” Truist Championship event along with the PGA Championship on the line, there is plenty at stake this week.

The Field

The 156-player field at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is one of the weaker ones this time of year because it is sandwiched between two majors (Masters and PGA Championship) and two “Signature” events (RBC Heritage and next week’s Truist Championship).

Here is the 156-player field courtesy of PGA Tour Communications:

The Course

TPC Craig Ranch plays host for its fourth year. The layout was designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004. Weiskopf also designed TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Phoenix Open) and the Torrey Pines North Course (Farmers Insurance Open). The course is set in a rolling valley and features tree-lined fairways with Rowlett Creek, which criss-crosses the course 14 times for eight water danger holes. The track underwent several renovations this past year, and it was headed up by 1973 Byron Nelson winner and Dallas resident Lanny Wadkins. It will play as a par-71 of 7,569 yards (third-longest on tour) and adds 155 yards of length with new tee boxes on holes No. 5, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 14. 

The rough is also changed to Ryegrass from Bermuda and is now longer at 3.25 inches from the 2.5-inch length last year. 

The fairways, while still wide, are also transformed to Ryegrass from the bouncier Zoysiagrass. 

The Bentgrass greens are large (6,778 square feet average) and average speed (11.5 stimpmeter). The back nine, which is located in a residential setting, sees a drivable par-4 (330 yards) at the 14th, a short 147-yard par-3 at the 17th and a par-5 at the finishing 18th hole of 552 yards.

There are 83 bunkers on the layout, and the wind can blow here. The length of the course could make it slightly more difficult, but TPC Craig Ranch has never rated lower than seventh easiest since it started hosting this event in 2021. 

Some potential correlated courses to TPC Craig Ranch include Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Scottsdale (Weiskopf design), Black Desert Resort (Weiskopf design), Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, TPC Deere Run, CC of Jackson and Plantation Course of Kapalua.

Here is the scorecard for TPC Craig Ranch:

Weather

Light thunderstorms are expected on Thursday/Friday per the AccuWeather forecast.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Recent History/Winners

2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23/261); 80-1

2023: Jason Day (-23/261); 18-1

2022: K.H. Lee (-26/262); 100-1

2021: K. H. Lee (-25/263); 150-1

2020: Tournament canceled (COVID-19)

2019: Sung Kang (-23/261); 125-1

2018: Aaron Wise (-23/261); 50-1

2017: Billy Horschel (-12/268); 125-1*

2016: Sergio Garcia (-15/265); 25-1**

2015: Steven Bowditch (-18/259); 500-1***

2014: Brendon Todd (-14/266); 100-1

2013: Sang-moon Bae (-13/267); 150-1

2012: Jason Dufner (-11/269); 22-1

2011: Keegan Bradley (-3/277) 200-1****

2010: Jason Day (-10/270); 100-1

Playoff win over Jason Day – *

Playoff win over Brooks Koepka – **

Par played at 69 for three days due to flooding – ***

Playoff win over Ryan Palmer – ****

Notes: 2018 and 2019 tournaments played at Trinity Forest Golf Club; 2010-2017 tournaments played at TPC Las Colinas. 

Statistical Analysis

While Pendrith was a bit of an outlier, ranking just 38th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in his victory here last year, the other three winners of this event at TPC Craig Ranch ranked high for Approach:

2023: Day 3rd

2022: K.H. Lee 8th

2021: K.H. Lee 2nd

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Henrik Norlander 1.018
2. Scottie Scheffler 0.942
3. Sami Valimaki 0.702
4. Jackson Suber 0.696
5. Tom Kim 0.640
6. Will Zalatoris 0.631
7. Kevin Yu 0.558
8. Nicolai Højgaard 0.524
9. Rico Hoey 0.514
10. Chan Kim 0.491
11. Ryan Gerard 0.484
12. Andrew Putnam 0.484
13. Doug Ghim 0.469
14. Stephan Jaeger 0.458
15. John Pak 0.458
16. Joel Dahmen 0.416
17. Lee Hodges 0.410
18. Charley Hoffman 0.400

Even with some increased length, TPC Craig Ranch should not play all that difficult. The average winning score has been 24.25 strokes under par over the last four years, so scoring conditions should be highly permissible. 

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Cam Davis 27.18%
2. Harry Hall 25.53
3. Si Woo Kim 25.42
4. Jesper Svensson 23.38
5. Niklas Norgaard 25.28
6. Sungjae Im 25.06
7. Jake Knapp 25.06
8. Danny Walker 24.91
9. Sam Burns 24.85
10. Isaiah Salinda 24.37
11. Scottie Scheffler 24.31
12. Stephan Jaeger 24.24
13. Erik van Rooyen 24.19
14. Jacob Bridgeman 24.07
15. Hayden Springer 23.93
16. Alejandro Tosti 23.86
17. Karl Vilips 23.74
18. Lee Hodges 23.72
19. Matti Schmid 23.65
20. Will Zalatoris 23.53
21. Rasmus Højgaard 23.50

TPC Craig Ranch has wide fairways and very few hazards off the tee, so players are free to bomb away with the driver.

Average Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aldrich Potgieter 324.1
2. Niklas Norgaard 318.5
3. Michael Thorbjornsen 316.2
4. Alejandro Tosti 315.9
5. Kurt Kitayama 315.8
6. Jesper Svensson 314.6
7. Rasmus Højgaard 314.3
8. Gary Woodland 313.3
9. Chris Gotterup 312.3
10. Trey Mullinax 312.2
11. Tim Widing 311.4
12. Luke List 310.9
13. Matti Schmid 310.9
14. Isaiah Salinda 310.6
15. Nicolai Højgaard 310.3
16. Will Gordon 310
17. Kris Ventura 309.6
18. Trevor Cone 308.9
19. Adam Schenk 308.9
20. Thomas Rosenmueller 308.8
21. Ricky Castillo 308.3
22. Taylor Moore 308.3
23. Jeremy Paul 308.3

Around three out of every eight approach shots at TPC Craig Ranch will come from 200 yards or more. 

Proximity Gained 200+ Yards — Average Yards Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Rikuya Hoshino 19.67
2. Jackson Suber 17.23 (32 rounds)
3. Erik Van Rooyen 17.14
4. Kurt Kitayama 16.96
5. Thorbjørn Olesen 16.59
6. Brandon Matthews 16.08
7. Jeremy Paul 13.21
8. Nicolai Højgaard 12.75
9. Sami Valimaki 12.57
10. Trace Crowe 12.38
11. Matti Schmid 12.35
12. Nick Hardy 11.79
13. Kris Ventura 11.65
14. Austin Eckroat 11.24
15. Sam Ryder 10.75
16. Kaito Onishi 10.64 (26 rounds)
17. Cam Davis 10.55
18. Mark Hubbard 10.42
19. Michael Thorbjornsen 10.3
20. Chandler Phillips 10.28
21. Alejandro Tosti 10.25
22. Ryan Gerard 10.12

The Bentgrass greens are smooth at TPC Craig Ranch and a birdie-fest like this event often delineates into a putting contest. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round — Bentgrass Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Brian Campbell 0.9 (22 rounds)
2. Harry Hall 0.72
3. Kris Ventura 0.63 (34 rounds)
4. Mackenzie Hughes 0.61
5. Dylan Wu 0.59
6. Kevin Kisner 0.54
7. Sam Burns 0.53
8. Vince Whaley 0.52
9. Beau Hossler 0.52
10. Sungjae Im 0.47
11. Martin Laird 0.46
12. Pierceson Coody 0.46 (31 rounds)
13. Davis Riley 0.45
14. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.42
15. Kevin Tway 0.42
16. Aaron Baddeley 0.41
17. Rico Hoey 0.40 (30 rounds)

TPC Craig Ranch has always played easy, and this year should be no exception. 

Strokes Gained Total — Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 86.8
2. Ben Griffin 55
3. Sungjae Im 43.1
4. Stephan Jaeger 37.5
5. Alex Smalley 37
6. Doug Ghim 35.3
7. Hayden Springer 34.8
8. Si Woo Kim 34.1
9. Beau Hossler 34.1
10. Harry Hall 29.2
11. Sam Burns 26.7
12. Tom Kim 25.8
13. Chan Kim 25.5
14. Jacob Bridgeman 24.7
15. Taylor Pendrith 24.6
16. Ryo Hisatsune 23.8
17. Kevin Tway 22.5
18. Lee Hodges 22.1
19. Joel Dahmen 20.7
20. Kevin Roy 20.3

Two of the par-5s were part of the course lengthening, but they are mandatory scoring holes to keep up with the low-scoring pace.

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 36 rounds)

1. Si Woo Kim 16.5
2. Taylor Moore 16.3
3. Davis Riley 16.1
4. Jesper Svensson 15.1
5. Niklas Norgaard 14.9 (28 rounds)
6. Hayden Springer 14.2
7. Taylor Pendrith 13.8
8. Lee Hodges 13.4
9. Scottie Scheffler 12.5
10. Matt Wallace 12.2
11. Keith Mitchell 11
12. Jake Knapp 11
13. Joseph Bramlett 11
14. Ryan Fox 10.3
15. Jacon Bridgeman 10.1
16. Jordan Spieth 9.9
17. Victor Perez 9.8
18. Sami Valimaki 9.7
19. Quade Cummins 9.2

At 7,569 yards, TPC Craig Ranch is the fourth-longest course thus far on the PGA Tour and the longest par-71. 

Strokes Gained Total — Long Courses/>7,400 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 78.1
2. Si Woo Kim 38.2
3. Matt Kuchar 36.7
4. Nate Lashley 34.9
5. Taylor Pendrith 33.5
6. Byeong Hun An 33.4
7. Jordan Spieth 30.5
8. Doug Ghim 29.6
9. Chan Kim 29.3
10. Sam Stevens 25.2
11. Jhonattan Vegas 25
12. Thorbjørn Olesen 24.1
13. Harry Hall 23.7
14. Henrik Norlander 23.3
15. Kevin Tway 23.1
16. Keith Mitchell 22.6
17. Si Woo Kim 20.6
18. Hayden Springer 20.2

Selections

Sam Burns (30-1, DraftKings)

Burns was runner-up to K.H. Lee in this event in 2021 and led the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green in his second-place finish. 

While he is known as “Bermuda Burns,” he is also pretty darn good on Bentgrass, ranking seventh for Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass over the last 36 rounds and is fourth overall this season on the PGA Tour for Putting. 

He was 13th last time out at the RBC Heritage, ranking fifth for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. 

While his pal Scheffler will get all the attention this week, Burns should fit the bill here with his long game off the tee to at least contend to get his first victory in two years (March 2023 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play) when he was on a run of five victories over three seasons.

Stephan Jaeger (42-1, Circa Sports)

Jaeger has made 10 of 12 cuts this season, highlighted by a T-3 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, a T-6 at the Mexico Open and a T-11 in defense of his 2024 Houston Open title. 

The German has finishes of T-11 and T-20 here in his last two appearances at TPC Craig Ranch. 

Jaeger was the runner-up last fall in Utah at the Black Desert Championship held at the Black Desert Resort, another par-71 Tom Weiskopf design. 

Ryo Hisatsune (70-1, DraftKings)

Hisatsune finished 13th on debut in this event last year. 

He has finished 18th or better in five of his last eight events, including top-5s at the Valero Texas Open and Valspar Championship and another top-10 in Mexico at Vidanta Vallarta. 

The man from Japan ranks seventh in this week’s field for Strokes Gained: Total and has been consistent all season. 

Kevin Yu (80-1, Bet Rivers)

Yu ranks eighth for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 21st for Strokes Gained: Approach this season on the PGA Tour. 

The man from Taiwan has four top-20 finishes in his last eight starts. 

He won the Sanderson Farms last fall at CC of Jackson, which is a correlated course to TPC Craig Ranch.

Isaiah Salinda (80-1, Bet Rivers)

Salinda is a tour rookie who ranks fifth for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.

He finished third at the Mexico Open and T-11 at the Houston Open. 

Salinda is a birdie-maker who hits it long off the tee, and that is an ideal recipe here. 

Alejandro Tosti (90-1, FanDuel)

Not including last week’s team event, Tosti has finished fifth (Houston), 12th (Valero Texas) and T-2 (Corales Puntacana) in his last three starts. 

The big-hitting Argentine is fourth in this field for Driving Distance. 

Cam Davis (100-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

The Australian has either played very poorly (six missed cuts) or very well (four finishes of 18th or better) in 2025. 

Davis is a two-time winner of the Rocket Mortgage Classic held at the Detroit Golf Club, a correlated course this week.

He is also a big-time birdie maker (first for Birdie Or Better Percentage this week) and should take to this big and wide-open course. 

Sami Valimaki (110-1, DraftKings)

Valimaki has made seven straight cuts on the PGA Tour this season and has played his best golf over the last three starts, finishing fourth in Houston, T-12 at Valero Texas Open and T-18 at the RBC Heritage. 

The two-time DP World Tour winner from Finland was runner-up at Vidanta Vallarta last year in the Mexico Open, so he is comfortable on long and wide courses. 

He ranks third in this week’s field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be available on Wednesday afternoon and VSiN.com/picks