The Memorial Tournament Best Bets and Golf Odds

The Memorial Tournament Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Scottie Scheffler did what he typically does, which is to lead the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. However, he also typically wins when he does that, but that was not the case last weekend at the Charles Schwab Challenge as he finished T-4. 

It was Ben Griffin (pre-tournament price of 60-1) who held on for his first solo PGA Tour victory (he won last month in the team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Andrew Novak) by one stroke over Matti Schmid and three strokes over Bud Cauley. 

This week, Scheffler is once again a sizable favorite at 3-1 to defend his Memorial Tournament title at Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village Golf Club. 

Scheffler won last year’s Memorial by one stroke over Collin Morikawa (16-1), who has finished runner-up twice here, including last year and in 2021 to Patrick Cantlay (20-1).

Xander Schauffele (16-1) has been working his way back from a rib injury that kept him out for two months earlier this year. 

Justin Thomas (18-1) lost in a playoff on this golf course in 2020 to Morikawa at the Workday Charity Open. 

Ludvig Åberg (25-1) finished in the top 5 here last year. 

Tommy Fleetwood (28-1) finished top 5 (T-4) last week at Colonial as he still seeks that elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Viktor Hovland (30-1) won in a playoff here two years ago over Denny McCarthy (50-1).

Hideki Matsuyama (35-1) won the Memorial back in 2014. 

Other former Memorial champions in this week’s field are Justin Rose (125-1) and Matt Kuchar (200-1).

Last week’s winner, Griffin, is priced at 65-1. 

The Event

The Memorial Tournament was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus at his “home course,” Muirfield Village Golf Club. There is no title sponsor for the event, but Workday, a cloud computing and enterprise software company, took over as the presenting sponsor two years ago, and Nationwide Children’s Hospital, based in Columbus, is the primary charitable beneficiary of the tournament. 

Nicklaus first spoke of wanting to host his own tournament at the 1966 Masters and made it a reality 10 years later. Jack has always modeled this event after the Masters, and golf viewers with a keen eye will notice similarities between Muirfield Village and Augusta National. 

Like the Masters, tradition is a major focal point at the Memorial. The event honors historical and accomplished figures in the game of golf every year, but this year is extra special for the event’s founder as Jack’s wife, Barbara, is this year’s honoree. 

The Memorial is a “Signature Event” containing only 72 players this year. It is one of three player-hosted tournaments, along with the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, featuring a 36-hole cut to the top 50 and ties, plus any player within 10 shots of the lead. With a total purse of $20 million, the winner receives $4 million and 700 FedEx Cup points.

The Field

This year’s 72-player field at the Memorial Tournament includes every eligible player ranked in the OWGR Top 30 except Rory McIlroy, who is playing at next week’s RBC Canadian Open for his last event before the U.S. Open. 

The Course  

Muirfield Village Golf Club serves as host for the Memorial Tournament and has done so every year since 1976. The course is in Dublin, Ohio, about 20 miles north of Columbus, where Jack Nicklaus played his collegiate golf at Ohio State. Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village, named after Muirfield, Scotland, where he completed his first Grand Slam in 1966 after winning the British Open in 1974. The track plays as a par-72 and will measure out at 7,569 yards and is the fifth-longest annual course on tour. 

After the 2020 event, Nicklaus oversaw an extensive course renovation that included new tees added on five holes, a complete reconstruction of the green complexes with Bentgrass surfaces and recontoured bunkers. The 15th hole was also completely rebuilt. This renovation also lengthened the course by close to 100 yards.

The course is still a tree-lined, parklands design and has played as the fourth-most-difficult course on the PGA Tour last year at an average round score of 73.50 (+1.50 over par). 

The Bentgrass fairways are generous (32-yard average fairway width), but trouble lurks with missing fairways as the mix of Kentucky Bluegrass, Ryegrass and Fescue rough will be around four inches this week. Muirfield Village tends to favor power fade shots off the tee and players with high ball flights. 

The sloping Bentgrass greens will be quick and will run about 13 on the stimpmeter. The firm greens are an average of 5,000 square feet (fifth smallest on the PGA Tour). The layout consists of 68 bunkers (that have all been modified) and 12 water danger holes. 

Muirfield Village is a classical, second-shot golf course. 

While Memorial is a unique track, there are several Nicklaus designs on the PGA Tour that could provide some correlations: 

• Annandale Golf Club — (Sanderson Farms Championship through 2013) 
• Glen Abbey (2008, 2009, 2012, 2015-2018 RBC Canadian Open) 
• Montreux GCC — Barracuda Championship 
• Old Greenwood — 2020 Barracuda Championship 
• PGA National — Honda Classic 
• PGA West, Tournament Course — The American Express 
• PGA West — Nicklaus Private (Humana Challenge through 2015) 
• Sherwood Country Club — Thousand Oaks — (World Challenge through 2013 and 2020 ZoZo Championship) 
• Valhalla Golf Club (2014 PGA Championship) 

Aside from the Nicklaus design links, other courses that are correlated to Muirfield Village include Augusta National, Innisbrook, Quail Hollow, TPC Potomac, Torrey Pines, and Bay Hill, Olympia Fields, Oak Hill, Winged Foot and Bethpage Black. PGA National and Glen Abbey have the best correlations of the Nicklaus designs.  

Nicklaus widens the fairways to really test players on approach and on the greens. Here is what he said upon beginning the renovations in 2020: 

“My belief is that tournament golf should be a test to find out who is the best golfer that week. Far too many tournaments have eliminated the rough and firmness of greens, and that is just not my idea of what the game of golf should be. So I am going to stick with my old-fashioned beliefs about how the game of golf should be played and the way golf courses should be set up. The whole gamut of all shots is what the game of golf is all about. The game should challenge every facet of every club in the bag.”

A majority of the scoring at Muirfield comes on the four par-5s. They make up the only four holes that play under par, residing in the 550-600-yard range. In the most recent renovation, the four par-5s were each lengthened to make them more difficult to reach in two shots to make this set of par-5s the most difficult on tour since 2020. 

The closing stretch at Muirfield Village includes the 16th, a 218-yard par-3 over water, the 17th, a big 503-yard par-4 with a tight corridor off the tee, and the 18th, 480-yard finishing hole that features an uphill dogleg with multiple hazards.

Here is the official Memorial Tournament scorecard: 

WBNS-TV 10, the CBS affiliate in Columbus, Ohio, provides a drone hole-by-hole flyover video of Muirfield Village. 

Weather

AccuWeather’s forecast indicates clear conditions over the weekend, but wind could play a factor, especially on Saturday. Rain is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, so the course could be at its softest and most scoreable on Thursday. 

The Memorial Tournament Recent History/Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-8/280); 4-1

2023: Viktor Hovland (-7/281); 20-1*

2022: Billy Horschel (-13/275); 60-1

2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13/275); 22-1**

​2020: Jon Rahm (-9/279); 22-1 

2020: (Workday Charity Open) Collin Morikawa (-19/269); 30-1***

2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19/269); 18-1 

2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15/273); 50-1****

2017: Jason Dufner (-13/275); 66-1 

2016: William McGirt (-15/273); 200-1*****

2015: David Lingmerth (-15/273); 250-1******

2014: Hideki Matsuyama (-13/275);  66-1*******

2013: Matt Kuchar (-12/276); 22-1 

2012: Tiger Woods (-9/279); 9-1 

2011: Steve Stricker (-16/272); 30-1

2010: Justin Rose (-18/270); 80-1  

Playoff win over Denny McCarthy – *

Playoff win over Collin Morikawa – **

Playoff win over Justin Thomas – ***

Playoff win over Byeong-Hun An and Kyle Stanley – ****

Playoff win over Jon Curran – *****

Playoff win over Justin Rose – ******

Playoff win over Kevin Na – ******* 

Tournament Trends 

• 8 of the last 15 Memorial winners were behind after 54 holes. 
• 10 of the last 15 Memorial winners were 11th or better after R1. (2023: Hovland 17th, 2022: Horschel 21st, 2018: DeChambeau 16th, 2016: McGirt 44th; 2014: Matsuyama 21st).  
• 6 of the last 8 Memorial winners had at least one top-5 finish within four lead-up starts to the event. 

Statistical Analysis

Nearly all Nicklaus designs are considered to be “second-shot golf courses” and Muirfield Village is no exception. Muirfield ranks as the fourth-toughest course to gain strokes on approach.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.295
2. Sepp Straka 1.027
3. J.J. Spaun 0.820
4. Justin Thomas 0.812
5. Shane Lowry 0.802
6. Collin Morikawa 0.746
7. Viktor Hovland 0.719
8. Xander Schauffele 0.625
9. Patrick Cantlay 0.624
10. Tommy Fleetwood 0.565
11. Nick Taylor 0.563
12. Keegan Bradley 0.554
13. Daniel Berger 0.539
14. Aaron Rai 0.523
15. Tom Hoge 0.508

The greens at Muirfield Village are the fifth-smallest on average for the PGA Tour and the Greens In Regulation rate was just 52% last year.

Greens In Regulation Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Sepp Straka 72.00%
2. Patrick Cantlay 71.69
3. Scottie Scheffler 70.45
4. Russell Henley 70.42
5. Taylor Pendrith 70.25
6. Aaron Rai 70.05
7. Corey Conners 69.89
8. Robert MacIntyre 69.57
9. Nick Taylor 69.57
10. Collin Morikawa 69.14
11. Ben Griffin 69.07
12. J.J. Spaun 68.79
13. Daniel Berger 68.67
14. Maverick McNealy 68.52
15. Davis Thompson 68.44

The fairways at Muirfield Village are wide and generous, but there is a penalty if you miss them courtesy of the four-inch thick rough. You have to hit it long and in the fairways here.

Average Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Min Woo Lee 316.2
2. Matti Schmid 312.5
3. Wyndham Clark 311.9
4. Cameron Young 310.8
5. Ludvig Åberg 309.0
6. Xander Schauffele 309.0
7. Taylor Pendrith 308.1
8. Max Greyserman 307.9
9. Jhonattan Vegas 307.9
10. Harry Higgs 307.6
11. Jordan Spieth 306.3
12. Ryan Fox 305.7
13. J.J. Spaun 305.6
14. Sam Stevens 305.5
15. Sam Burns 305.4
16. Justin Thomas 305.3
17. Tony Finau 305.0
18. Stephan Jaeger 305.0

While distance is certainly an advantage on these wide fairways, players also need to not miss fairways or at least not miss them by much. Distance from Edge of Fairway measures the average distance in feet and inches from the edge of the fairway when the player misses the fairway. 

Distance from Edge of Fairway (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Rai 18′ 7″ (feet, inches)
2. Collin Morikawa 20′ 0″
3. Russell Henley 20′ 3″
4. Lucas Glover 21′ 0″
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 21′ 6″ 
6. Shane Lowry 21′ 8″
7. Corey Conners 22′ 1″
8. Matt Fitzpatrick 22′ 2″
9. Daniel Berger 22′ 4″
10. Si Woo Kim 22′ 4″
11. Sepp Straka 22′ 6″
12. Brian Harman 22′ 10″
13. J.T. Poston 22′ 10″
14. Nick Taylor 23′ 4″
15. Keegan Bradley 23′ 10″
16. Matt Kuchar 23′ 11″

Muirfield Village has the toughest set of par-5s on the PGA Tour and three of the four range from 550 to 600 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-5s 550-600 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Cam Davis 16.4
2. Jordan Spieth 15.1
3. Si Woo Kim 15
4. Justin Rose 14.7
5. Scottie Scheffler 14.3
6. Corey Conners 11.2
7. Cameron Young 11.2
8. Viktor Hovland 10.9
9. Justin Thomas 9.6
10. Andrew Novak 9.4
11. Shane Lowry 8.8
12. Harris English 8.5
13. Ben Griffin 8.4

No par-4 at Muirfield Village plays under par. Seven of them play between 450-500 yards.

Strokes Gained: Par-4s 450-500 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 26.8
2. Corey Conners 22.3
3. Nick Taylor 21.9
4. Denny McCarthy 18.9
5. Brian Campbell 16.9
6. Justin Thomas 16.4
7. Shane Lowry 16.1
8. Aaron Rai 15.1
9. Tommy Fleetwood 14.5
10. Keegan Bradley 14
11. Bud Cauley 14
12. Thomas Detry 13.7
13. Matt Kuchar 13.6
14. Harris English 12.9
15. Maverick McNealy 12.4
16. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 12.1
17. Hideki Matsuyama 12

Nearly 50% of the approach shots are from 175 yards and out.

Average Proximity Gained — Yards Per Round — 175 to 200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Viktor Hovland 15.78
2. Bud Cauley 12.73
3. Matti Schmid 12.67
4. Scottie Scheffler 10.66
5. Xander Schauffele 9.58
6. Keegan Bradley 9.48
7. Sepp Straka 9.21
8. Si Woo Kim 8.79
9. Hideki Matsuyama 8.05
10. Akshay Bhatia 7.81
11. Eric Cole 7.33
12. Joe Highsmith 7.27
13. Corey Conners 6.98
14. J.T. Poston 6.81
15. Matthieu Pavon 6.71

Average Proximity Gained — Yards Per Round — 200+ Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Ryan Gerard 21.84
2. Scottie Scheffler 21.64
3. Viktor Hovland 20.26
4. Daniel Berger 16.63
5. Matt Fitzpatrick 16.42
6. Matti Schmid 15.7
7. Xander Schauffele 14.7
8. Akshay Bhatia 14.57
9. Ludvig Åberg 13.49
10. Michael Kim 11.22
11. Patrick Cantlay 11.10
12. Denny McCarthy 10.74
13. Harry Higgs 9.82
14. Tony Finau 9.73
15. Eric Cole 9.68

Scrambling and around-the-green play will be of utmost importance this week, considering that players are going to miss the greens a little less than half the time. Thick four-inch rough and deep bunkers, plus fast and undulating greens will test the short game in a major way this week.

Scrambling Gained — Total Strokes — Thick Rough and Fast Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 28.6
2. Byeong Hun An 20
3. Denny McCarthy 19.6
4. Alex Noren 17.6
5. Harris English 16.4
6. Matt Fitzpatrick 15.2
7. Wyndham Clark 12.9
8. Tommy Fleetwood 12.2
9. Stephan Jaeger 11
10. Justin Thomas 10.7
11. Max Homa 10.6
12. Brian Harman 10.6
13. Patrick Cantlay 10.1
14. Hideki Matsuyama 9.7
15. Scottie Scheffler 7.8
16. Jordan Spieth 7.8

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Total Strokes — Thick Rough and Fast Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Alex Noren 24.2
2. Byeong Hun An 19.7
3. Scottie Scheffler 18.9
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 18.3
5. Tommy Fleetwood 16.5
6. Chris Kirk 16.3
7. Harris English 15.9
8. Tony Finau 14.8
9. Jordan Spieth 14.2
10. Hideki Matsuyama 13.4
11. Wyndham Clark 12.8
12. Bud Cauley 12.2
13. Si Woo Kim 12.2
14. Mackenzie Hughes 11.7
15. Denny McCarthy 11.1
16. Matt Fitzpatrick 11.1
17. Justin Thomas 10.9
18. Russell Henley 10.1

Scoring has been tougher at Muirfield Village over the last two years. Bogeys lurk everywhere with the thick rough, the deep bunkers, and faster greens. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 10.35% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Sepp Straka 12.78
3. Michael Kim 13.00
4. Denny McCarthy 13.03
5. Matt Kuchar 13.24
6. Nick Taylor 13.53
7. Daniel Berger 13.67
8. Sam Stevens 13.71
9. Russell Henley 13.75
10. Shane Lowry 13.75
11. Hideki Matsuyama 13.77
12. Corey Conners 13.89
13. Si Woo Kim 13.89
14. J.J. Spaun 13.94

While putting on these fast, Bentgrass greens is a bit easier since the renovations, players still have to putt a bit defensively because of the speed and the undulations.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round — Bentgrass Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Matt Fitzpatrick 1.06
2. Denny McCarthy 1.01
3. Max Greyserman 0.82 (31 rounds)
4. Brian Campbell 0.80 (24 rounds)
5. J.T. Poston 0.77
6. Harris English 0.73
7. Xander Schauffele 0.72
8. Justin Rose 0.71
9. Sam Burns 0.69
10. Mackenzie Hughes 0.67
11. Sam Stevens 0.57
12. Ludvig Åberg 0.57
13. Adam Hadwin 0.56
14. Aaron Rai 0.53
15. Brandt Snedeker 0.52
16. Maverick McNealy 0.51

Selections

Collin Morikawa (18-1, Circa Sports OR 14-1 w/out Scottie Scheffler market, DraftKings)

Morikawa has a victory at Muirfield Village, but not at the Memorial Tournament. He has been runner-up in the event twice, including last year to Scottie Scheffler. 

He only has the two top-5s (both runners-up at The Sentry and Arnold Palmer Invitational) this season and does not have a top-10 since The Players in March, but Muirfield Village is a second-shot golf course. Very few players are better second-shot players than Morikawa, who always ranks at or near the top for Strokes Gained: Approach (seventh this season). 

Morikawa also ranks second on tour for Driving Accuracy, so he should be able to stay out of trouble off the tee here. 

Xander Schauffele (18-1, BetRivers OR 14-1 w/out Scottie Scheffler market, FanDuel)

Last year’s PGA and British Open champion has yet to contend anywhere in 2025, largely due to missing over two months with a rib injury, but there are signs that he is getting closer.

While only finishing T-28 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, he ranked third in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. 

He also ranks ninth on the tour this year for Strokes Gained: Approach, so the ball striking is certainly coming around, and he did lead the field here last year for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Viktor Hovland (35-1, Circa Sports OR 28-1 w/out Scottie Scheffler market, FanDuel)

We hit Hovland here two years ago at “Jack’s Place” and will come back for seconds here. 

Hovland ranks eighth on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach and was fifth for Total Driving two weeks ago at the PGA Championship.

The Norwegian’s short game has long been a challenge for him, but it is substantially better when chipping out of thick rough instead of from tight lies and the thicker rough around the green, plus these green complexes are much better for him. 

Tony Finau (54-1, Circa Sports OR 40-1 w/out Scottie Scheffler market, FanDuel)

Finau has three top-10s in eight appearances at the Memorial. 

He only finished T-19 at the PGA Championship but deserved a better finish as he ranked sixth in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Finau was left off the Ryder Cup team last time in 2023 and is currently on the outside looking in again in 2025. He has a solid history here, and this would be as good a spot as any to show something to get back in the mix for consideration. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (60-1, Bet365 OR 40-1 w/out Scottie Scheffler market, FanDuel)

Fitzpatrick just posted his last top-10 anywhere since last year’s Memorial with a T-8 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, so it is difficult to say that Fitz is back just yet.

However, he is better equipped for events where the scoring is not as low, like the Memorial. 

He finished fifth here last year, ninth in 2023 and third in 2020.

Placement markets and/or matchups will be available on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks