The Open Championship 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Chris Gotterup joined the PGA Tour in 2022 with major expectations, having been the recipient of both the Haskins and Nicklaus Award, which are given to the outstanding college golfer. PGA Tour success has not been immediate as he came into last week with one PGA Tour victory at the 2024 Myrtle Beach Classic, an additional event that was opposite the Wells Fargo Championship signature event. However, Gotterup got it done again last week for the biggest win of his career to date at the Genesis Scottish Open at a pre-tournament price of 90-1, holding off Rory McIlroy in the process.
McIlroy tied for second with Englishman Marco Penge. Matt Fitzpatrick, our nearest pursuer, finished T-4 along with Nicolai Højgaard. Rounding out the top 10 were Justin Rose, Sepp Straka, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Åberg.
Gotterup, Højgaard and Matti Schmid earned the final three spots for the final major championship of the year this week at Royal Portrush.
Royal Portrush, not on the island of Great Britain, first held The Open in 1951 and then again in 2019 when Shane Lowry (30-1 this week) took home the Claret Jug.
Scheffler (5-1) and 2014 Champion Golfer of the Year (the title given to the Open champion) McIlroy (7-1) sit atop the odds board as they have all year. Both are looking to grab a second 2025 major championship trophy as Scheffler took home the PGA Championship in May and McIlroy finally completed the career Grand Slam a month earlier at the Masters.
Jon Rahm (12-1) shot a Sunday 65 to fall one shot short and finish second last weekend at LIV Golf Andalucia.
Bryson DeChambeau (22-1) contended in this year’s first two majors but disappointed by missing the cut at the U.S. Open last month.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1) was the runner-up to Lowry at the 2019 Open last time at Royal Portrush.
Schauffele (25-1) is the defending Champion Golfer of the Year, having won The Open last year at Royal Troon. Schauffele’s top-10 last week in Scotland was only his second of the season and first since the Masters.
Åberg (28-1) is playing in just his second Open Championship.
European Ryder Cup mainstays Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton and Viktor Hovland are all priced at 30-1.
Past Open Championship winners in this field include McIlroy, Schauffele, Lowry, Collin Morikawa (33-1), Jordan Spieth (45-1), Cameron Smith (90-1), Brian Harman (100-1), Louis Oosthuizen (125-1), Padraig Harrington (250-1), Phil Mickelson (400-1), Zach Johnson (400-1), Henrik Stenson (400-1), Francesco Molinari (400-1), Stewart Cink (500-1), Justin Leonard (1500-1) and Darren Clarke (1500-1).
The Field
156 players comprise this week’s field at the 153rd Open Championship. The top 70 and ties will make the weekend cut.
The current odds for the 153rd Open Championship from a variety of national retail sportsbooks are listed here.
The Course
Royal Portrush Golf Club is located in the seaside resort town of Portrush in County Antrim, Northern Ireland. The club was established in 1888 as The County Club. It became The Royal County Club in 1892 under the patronage of the Duke of York and assumed its present name in 1895 under the patronage of the Prince of Wales.
Of the two courses on club grounds, the Dunluce Links is the championship course and will serve as the venue for this week’s Open.
The links was designed originally by Harry Colt in 1929 and redesigned by Martin Ebert in preparation for the Open held here in 2019. Ebert and design partner Tom Mackenzie have done redesigns at other Open rota courses such as Royal Lytham & St. Annes, Royal Troon, Turnberry, Royal St. George’s, Carnoustie, Royal Birkdale and Royal Liverpool.
Dunluce is a par-71 of 7,381 yards and is a fairly traditional links layout.
One of the more interesting features of Royal Portrush is the relative lack of green-side bunkers. Even after the extensive course updates ahead of the 2019 Open, the Dunluce Links contains just 57 bunkers — by far the fewest of any course in The Open rota. Royal Portrush relies more on the elevation changes and hollows surrounding the greens to challenge the players in lieu of heavy bunkering.
The agronomy throughout the course is fescue, including the fairways (28 yards wide on average). The rough is predominantly fescue but also mixed with bentgrass and native grasses. The first cut is only two inches but gets nastier in the higher dunes that surround and can be highly penal.
There are more forced carries and dogleg holes off the tee compared with the other Open courses.
The fescue greens average around 5,400 square feet and are smaller than most of the other Open venues, plus have more undulations and are elevated. Most Open courses have flat greens where players run the balls onto them, but at Portrush, you must land the balls onto the greens. Tight runoffs and tricky lies surround these greens if players cannot find them in regulation. As is typical for an Open, the greens will run at a slow 10 on the stimpmeter.
Aside from the various angles and elevation changes, there are constant changes in direction, which makes it difficult for players to properly judge the wind conditions.
Golf Digest provides us with a hole-by-hole flyover video of the Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush.
Including, but not limited to the other Ebert & Mackenzie designs in the Open Championship rota, other courses that are comparable or correlated to Royal Portrush include stateside layouts like Pebble Beach (smaller greens, located along a coastline and susceptible to wind) and TPC Sawgrass (susceptible to wind, needing creativity around the greens).
Weather
The weather in recent weeks leading up to The Open has been warmer, and the course has dried out. Intermittent rain is expected throughout the event, but the course will likely play firmer and faster than it did for the 2019 Open.
Here is this week’s forecast courtesy of AccuWeather.
Open Championship Recent History
2024: Xander Schauffele (-9/275); Royal Troon; 14-1
2023: Brian Harman (-13/271), Royal Liverpool; 150-1
2022: Cameron Smith (-20/268), St. Andrews; 20-1
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15/265), Royal St. George’s; 40-1
2020: Canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry (-15/269), Royal Portrush; 70-1
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8/276), Carnoustie; 33-1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12/268), Royal Birkdale; 16-1
2016: Henrik Stenson (-20/264), Royal Troon; 33-1
2015: Zach Johnson (-15/273), St. Andrews; 110-1*
2014: Rory McIlroy (-17/271), Royal Liverpool; 18-1
2013: Phil Mickelson (-3/281), Muirfield; 20-1
2012: Ernie Els (-7/273), Royal Lytham & St. Annes; 45-1
2011: Darren Clarke (-5/275), Royal St. George’s; 200-1
2010: Louis Oosthuizen (-16/272), St. Andrews; 250-1
Playoff win over Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen – *
Open Championship Trends and Angles
- 11 of the last 14 winners had at least one top-5 finish in at least one of their six events before The Open.
- 7 of the last 13 winners had at least one victory in at least one of their six events before The Open.
- 17 of the last 24 winners had at least one worldwide victory earlier in the season.
- 12 of the last 14 winners were inside the OWGR Top 40.
- 10 of the last 14 winners had at least one top-15 in one of their three previous Open starts.
- 8 of the last 14 winners were age 32 or older.
- 12 of the last 14 winners played the week prior.
- 15 of the last 18 winners had a previous top-10 or better in a previous Open.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have posted a top 20 in at least one of their previous two majors leading into The Open.
- 12 of the last 12 winners already had a win or a runner-up in a major earlier in their career.
- 14 of the last 15 winners had at least four career worldwide wins.
- 13 of the last 15 winners had played The Open at least four times.
- 15 of the last 15 winners had at least one top-5 finish worldwide earlier in the season.
- 13 of the last 15 winners had at least four top-10 finishes earlier in the season.
Statistical Analysis
Royal Portrush has smaller greens and prevents players from running shots onto the greens like other Open links courses because they are more elevated and have plenty of run-off areas. So players must hit the greens in a more traditional sense.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 1.272
- Shane Lowry 1.046
- John Parry 0.960
- Viktor Hovland 0.949
- Tyrrell Hatton 0.880
- Sepp Straka 0.880
- Oliver Lindell 0.825
- Martin Couvra 0.799
- Hao Tong Li 0.733
- Joaquin Niemann 0.731
- Collin Morikawa 0.722
- Marc Leishman 0.716
- Xander Schauffele 0.712
- Patrick Cantlay 0.708
- Daniel Berger 0.677
- Dean Burmester 0.644
- Jon Rahm 0.629
- Jacob Skov Olesen 0.597
- Russell Henley 0.589
- Ben Griffin 0.568
- Sebastian Söderberg 0.562
- Ryan Fox 0.555
- Akshay Bhatia 0.546
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.516
- Davis Thompson 0.503
- Tom Hoge 0.500
- Bud Cauley 0.500
Although initial weather forecasts do not indicate the severe weather conditions that we saw in 2019, especially during the Thursday and Sunday rounds, rain is forecast, and wind could always pick up. Furthermore, the small greens are not as easy to hit, and the greens are more complex, so bogeys lurk all over the place.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 9.5% (% of time player makes bogey)
- Jon Rahm 9.8
- Joaquin Niemann 10.7
- Shane Lowry 11.4
- Matteo Manassero 11.9
- Marco Penge 12.0
- Chris Gotterup 12.1
- Bryson DeChambeau 12.1
- Russell Henley 12.3
- Laurie Canter 12.5
- Matt McCarty 12.5
- Patrick Reed 12.6
- Jordan Smith 12.7
- Rory McIlroy 13.0
- Takumi Kanaya 13.0
- Sepp Straka 13.2
- Nicolai Højgaard 13.2
- Thorbjørn Olesen 13.3
- Ben Griffin 13.3
- Kristoffer Reitan 13.3
- Patrick Cantlay 13.6
- Harris English 13.6
- Harry Hall 13.6
- Aaron Rai 13.7
- Nick Taylor 13.7
- Tyrrell Hatton 13.8
- Justin Thomas 13.8
- J.J Spaun 13.9
- Matt Wallace 13.9
- Shaun Norris 13.9
Positioning off the tee overrides power a little at Royal Portrush.
Driving Accuracy Percentage (Last 50 rounds)
- Aaron Rai 73.4%
- Henrik Stenson 72.2
- Takumi Kanaya 72.0
- Collin Morikawa 70.8
- Zach Johnson 68.9
- Sungjae Im 68.3
- Lucas Glover 67.6
- Sergio Garcia 67.0
- John Catlin 66.8
- Russell Henley 66.1
- Corey Conners 65.8
- Daniel Berger 65.4
- Scottie Scheffler 65.2
- Brian Campbell 65.2
- Louis Oosthuizen 64.8
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.6
- Nick Taylor 64.6
- Davis Thompson 64.1
- Shane Lowry 64.0
- Francesco Molinari 63.9
- Daniel Brown 63.7
- Matt McCarty 63.5
- Harris English 63.4
- J.T. Poston 63.2
- Nathan Kimsey 63.0
With the run-offs around and undulations on the greens, players will have some difficulties getting up and down for pars at times.
Scrambling Percentage (Last 50 rounds)
- Matteo Manassero 72.8%
- Scottie Scheffler 71.1
- Shaun Norris 70.0
- Bryson DeChambeau 68.8
- Rory McIlroy 68.6
- Matt McCarty 68.2
- Matt Wallace 67.7
- Harris English 67.4
- Russell Henley 67.1
- Sebastian Söderberg 67.1
- Chris Gotterup 66.8
- Patrick Reed 66.6
- Takumi Kanaya 66.5
- Jacob Skov Olesen 66.2
- Harry Hall 65.7
- Jordan Smith 65.4
- Tommy Fleetwood 65.4
- Mackenzie Hughes 65.3
- Shane Lowry 65.2
- Min Woo Lee 65.0
- Cameron Smith 65.0
- Zach Johnson 64.9
- Aaron Rai 64.9
- Andrew Novak 64.4
- Matt Fitzpatrick 64.3
- Nick Taylor 64.3
- Thorbjørn Olesen 64.3
- Daniel Berger 64.1
- Joaquin Niemann 64.1
- Daniel Brown 64.0
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)
- Matteo Manassero 0.731
- Sungjae Im 0.668
- Cameron Smith 0.656
- Matt Wallace 0.576
- Keegan Bradley 0.572
- Jon Rahm 0.544
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.511
- Lucas Herbert 0.508
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.479
- Russell Henley 0.476
- Shaun Norris 0.454
- Jason Day 0.425
- Scottie Scheffler 0.417
- Min Woo Lee 0.415
- Tom McKibbin 0.414
- Patrick Reed 0.410
- Daniel Van Tonder 0.367
- Jordan Spieth 0.361
- Marco Penge 0.357
- Wyndham Clark 0.353
- Bryson DeChambeau 0.348
- Tyrrell Hatton 0.339
- Guido Migliozzi 0.334
- Chris Gotterup 0.328
- Marc Leishman 0.314
- Daniel Young 0.312
The greens are more intricate at Royal Portrush with plenty of undulations.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)
- Shaun Norris 1.104
- Sam Burns 1.092
- Kristoffer Reitan 0.936
- Cameron Smith 0.844
- Justin Hastings 0.843
- Harry Hall 0.709
- Denny McCarthy 0.701
- Rory McIlroy 0.632
- Matt McCarty 0.538
- Cameron Young 0.493
- Daniel Brown 0.480
- Justin Thomas 0.477
- Max Greyserman 0.463
- Daniel Hillier 0.457
- Romain Langasque 0.453
- Daniel Young 0.451
- Hao Tong Li 0.444
- Nico Echavarria 0.443
- Takumi Kanaya 0.400
- Brian Campbell 0.397
- Adrien Saddier 0.392
- Thorbjørn Olesen 0.386
- Zach Johnson 0.370
- Brian Harman 0.364
- Corey Conners 0.360
- Scottie Scheffler 0.351
The greens at The Open are arguably the slowest that these players will putt on all year.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Slow Greens — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)
- Nathan Kimsey 1.765
- Elvis Smylie 1.677
- Marco Penge 1.134
- Denny McCarthy 0.760
- Hao Tong Li 0.712
- Bryson DeChambeau 0.704
- Adrien Saddier 0.702
- Angel Hidalgo 0.653
- Lucas Herbert 0.633
- Patrick Reed 0.630
- Tyrrell Hatton 0.616
- Sam Burns 0.603
- Max Greyserman 0.550
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.542
- Brian Campbell 0.501
- Romain Langasque 0.480
- Matt Fitzpatrick 0.474
- Cameron Smith 0.464
- Harris English 0.446
- Harry Hall 0.436
- Mackenzie Hughes 0.415
- Maverick McNealy 0.407
- Wyndham Clark 0.377
- Matthew Jordan 0.375
- Xander Schauffele 0.370
- Jason Day 0.366
- Jon Rahm 0.366
- John Axelsen 0.356
In the Trends and Angles section above, you will notice that experience, particularly links experience, does matter in The Open.
Strokes Gained Total — Average Per Round — The Open (Last 36 rounds)
- Cameron Young 2.620
- Daniel Brown 2.595
- Xander Schauffele 2.121
- Collin Morikawa 2.107
- Jordan Spieth 2.092
- Scottie Scheffler 2.017
- Matthew Jordan 1.847
- Rory McIlroy 1.807
- Viktor Hovland 1.762
- Jon Rahm 1.652
- Dean Burmester 1.519
- Shane Lowry 1.517
- Tony Finau 1.478
- Henrik Stenson 1.468
- Mackenzie Hughes 1.457
- Sergio Garcia 1.411
- Adam Scott 1.377
- Rickie Fowler 1.373
- Tommy Fleetwood 1.342
- Patrick Cantlay 1.312
- Justin Rose 1.301
- Brian Harman 1.299
- Jason Day 1.289
- Thriston Lawrence 1.204
- Dustin Johnson 1.201
Selections
Jon Rahm (16-1, Bet365)
This has been a winless campaign for Rahm, but he has rediscovered his game in majors with top-10 finishes in both the PGA and U.S. Open.
Rahm has also finished seventh or better in three of the last four Open Championships.
It’s been quiet for Rahm on LIV, where he might be a little bit out of sight and out of mind, but he has finished inside the top 10 in nine of 10 events on that circuit.
Viktor Hovland (30-1, DraftKings)
While he missed the cut at Royal Troon last year, Hovland has never been worse than 13th in any of his three other Open appearances.
This is Hovland’s first time at Royal Portrush, but in terms of playing Harry Colt designs, we can check his form at Wentworth, where he finished fifth in both 2022 and 2023.
The short game has long been seen as his weakness, but he was second Around The Greens at the U.S. Open and ninth for Scrambling last week at the Scottish Open.
Tyrrell Hatton (33-1, FanDuel)
Hatton is off his best career major championship finish with a T-4 in the U.S. Open at Oakmont.
He has won already this year at the Dubai Desert Classic and has four other worldwide top-5s.
The Englishman is a three-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, including last year, which is played on Open rota courses St. Andrews and Carnoustie, so the links pedigree is certainly apparent.
Robert MacIntyre (40-1, DraftKings)
Bobby Mac finished sixth at Royal Portrush on his Open debut in 2019.
Six years later, MacIntyre is now a two-time PGA Tour winner, including at the 2024 RBC Canadian Open, winning at Hamilton, another Harry Colt design.
MacIntyre was fifth at the Irish Open last year at Royal County Down, and the Scotsman has been playing links golf his entire life. His runner-up at the U.S. Open last month gave him a taste of contending in a major.
Matt Fitzpatrick (55-1, DraftKings)
Last year was a year to forget for Fitzpatrick as he only tallied two top-10 finishes.
Coming into this week’s Open, he has two top-10 finishes in his last two events, including a T-4 last week in Scotland.
Fitzpatrick could be peaking at the right time and has been better since permanently making the caddie switch from his longtime bagman, Billy Foster, who we won the 2022 U.S. Open with, to Daniel Parratt.
Russell Henley (65-1, FanDuel)
Henley has eight top-10 finishes in 14 starts this season, including a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
He arrives here following consecutive finishes of fifth in the Memorial Tournament, 10th in the U.S. Open and second in the Travelers Championship, and he was fifth in The Open at Royal Troon last year.
Henley ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total and excels Around The Greens and in Approach, ranking sixth and 15th, respectively.
Keegan Bradley (100-1, Bet365)
The Ryder Cup captain has put himself into the discussion to pick himself for Team USA later this fall with a victory at the Travelers Championship, plus five other top-10 finishes, including at the PGA.
He has never really contended in The Open, but he is contending on a more regular basis, and the Ryder Cup captaincy certainly has not taken the focus off his game.
Tom McKibbin (150-1, Circa Sports)
McKibbin is a member at Royal Portrush.
The Northern Irishman is a teammate of Rahm’s on the LIV circuit, and he has been playing good golf there with top-five finishes in his last two events, including a fourth last weekend at Valderrama.
McKibbin has six top-7 finishes worldwide this season.
Other futures, placement markets, props, and/or matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
