The Players Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds

The Players Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Since the beginning of 2024, Russell Henley had found himself at the top of the list for most top-10s on the PGA Tour without a victory as he had posted 10 top-10 finishes before earning that victory, for the first time in 854 days (2022 WorldWide Technology Championship) and his biggest career win — the fifth of his career — at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill last weekend at a price of 45-1. 

Collin Morikawa, who now sits atop of that top-10 list without a victory along with Sungjae Im, was the 54-hole leader and had maintained his lead throughout Sunday’s final round until Henley chipped in for eagle on the 16th to take the lead. 

Morikawa settled for his second runner-up of 2025 (The Sentry). Corey Conners finished third and earned his spot in the British Open at Royal Portrush later this summer. 

Henley (40-1 this week) now heads to The Players Championship as a top-10-ranked player (7th OWGR) for this first time in his career. 

Scottie Scheffler (+450) finished T-11 in his Arnold Palmer Invitational title defense and will be looking for a three-peat at The Players as he became the first player to win in consecutive years at TPC Sawgrass last year. 

Rory McIlroy (+850) won The Players in 2019 as did Justin Thomas (20-1) in 2021.

Morikawa (16-1) already has two runners-up in 2025 but has never finished top 10 here in four attempts. However, course form has not proven to be an indicator of success at TPC Sawgrass.

Ludvig Åberg (18-1) lives in Ponte Vedra Beach and practices regularly at TPC Sawgrass, where he finished eighth on debut last year.

Xander Schauffele (22-1) returned from his extended break to recover from a rib injury and finished T-40 last weekend. Schauffele is a two-time runner-up (2018, 2024) here at The Players.

Hideki Matsuyama (30-1) has to feel like he has unfinished business at The Players considering he was the first-round leader in the 2020 event before it was canceled due to COVID-19. He has gone well here the last two years with finishes of fifth and sixth.  

Tommy Fleetwood (30-1), Patrick Cantlay (35-1), Shane Lowry (40-1) — last week’s 36-hole leader before finishing T-7 — and Keegan Bradley (50-1), who finished T-5 last week courtesy of an 8-under round of 64, make up the next rung in the betting market. 

The Event

The Players Championship was conceived by then-PGA Tour Commissioner Deane Beman in 1974, and Jack Nicklaus won the inaugural event at the Atlanta Country Club. The event eventually moved to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. (18 miles from downtown Jacksonville) and the Sawgrass Country Club in 1977 before moving in 1982 to the adjacent TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course where it remains today. The Players offers the largest purse on the PGA Tour at $25 million and is considered the unofficial “fifth major” due to arguably having the best field all year. The winner receives 80 OWGR points, a five-year PGA Tour exemption and three years of exemptions to all four majors.  

There have only been seven multiple winners of The Players: Jack Nicklaus (1974, 1976, 1978), Fred Couples (1984, 1996), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Davis Love III (1992, 2003), Tiger Woods (2001, 2013) and Scottie Scheffler (2023, 2024). Outside of this list, 25 other major champions have won this event, including recent ones like Cameron Smith (2022), Justin Thomas (2021), Rory McIlroy (2019), Webb Simpson (2018), Jason Day (2016), Martin Kaymer (2014), K.J. Choi (2011), Henrik Stenson (2009), Sergio Garcia (2008), Phil Mickelson (2007) and Adam Scott (2004).  

Six players have won The Players and a major championship in the same calendar year: Jack Nicklaus (1978, Open), Hal Sutton (1983, PGA), Tiger Woods (2001, Masters), Martin Kaymer (2014, U.S. Open), Cameron Smith (2022, Open) and Scottie Scheffler (2024 Masters) last year. 

The Field

The Players Championship field is 144 players with the top 65 and ties making the weekend cut. Here are the tee times for the Thursday and Friday rounds:

If betting the First Round Leader market, that leader has come from the Thursday AM tee times in four of the last five years. 

The Course 

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is one of the most iconic courses in the world of golf. Located in Ponte Vedra Beach on a Florida swamp the property was purchased in 1978 for $1 by then-PGA Tour commissioner Deane Beman.

The course was designed by the legendary late Pete Dye in 1979 (with a Steve Wenzloff and Pete Dye redesign in 2017) and it hosted its first Players in 1982. The two-month date change from May to March has had such a dramatic effect on how the course has been played that it does not make sense to take much of the pre-2019 results into account. With coastal winds gustier in March, scoring is more random and the course plays longer thanks to the softer fairways. 

The track is a par-72 of 7,352 yards, lengthened by 77 yards this year. The layout features 92 Scottish-style bunkers (fifth most on tour), 16 water holes (most on tour), including the famous island green on the 17th and a variety of waste areas. 

The course is unique in that no consecutive holes play in the same direction and there are both left and right doglegs throughout. The fairways (28 yards average width — seventh narrowest on tour) and rough (grown out to four inches this year) are comprised of overseeded Ryegrass. 

Tee shots on the angled fairways are well-designed and encourage golfers to hit toward the trouble for the least obstructed approach shots into the demanding greens. So, there is very much a risk/reward element here at TPC Sawgrass. 

The 100% Poa Trivialis greens are 5,500 square feet on average and are fast (13 on the Stimpmeter). In the past, the greens have been Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa and Velvet Bentgrass. They still have a Bermuda base, but the Bentgrass is gone for an exclusive Poa overseed. These Poa greens run smoother and lack the bumps players saw on West Coast courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach.

Changes to the course this year include 77 added yards of length, including new tee boxes on No. 2 and No. 11 adding 15 yards each, the re-establishing of the iconic tree on No. 6 and 15 more yards, and additions of palm and oak trees plus native grasses in the right rough on No. 14.

Three of the par-3s are under 185 yards, including the infamous 17th-hole island green, and all average over-par scores. 

The par-4s (average distance of 433 yards) are a mix of challenging risk/reward holes. Three of them play under 400 yards and three more are over 470 yards. Almost all of the par-4s are “S-shaped” as Dye wanted both the draw and fade to be in play. Nos. 14 and 18 are the toughest holes on the course. 

The par-5s at TPC Sawgrass average only 554 yards in length. This is where scoring becomes crucial as three of them are reachable in two shots. Water is present on holes 9, 11, and 16, which requires players to find the fairway with the driver to have any chance of successfully going for the green.

Correlated courses to TPC Sawgrass include other Dye designs like TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, PGA West Stadium, Kiawah Island and Whistling Straits. Other courses on the Florida swing such as Bay Hill, PGA National and Innisbrook have had strong correlations in the past as have TPC Southwind, Waialae and Sedgefield.

Golf Digest provides a hole-by-hole video of TPC Sawgrass. This video, narrated by senior editor of architecture Ron Whitten, was done five years ago, so there have been some changes since, but the layout largely remains the same. 

Weather

Early AccuWeather forecasts indicate very little chance of rain and winds not really picking up until Saturday and Sunday. 

The Players Championship Recent History/Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20/268); 11-2

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17/271); 10-1

2022: Cameron Smith (-13/275); 30-1

2021: Justin Thomas (-14/274); 20-1

2020: Tournament cancelled due to COVID-19

2019: Rory McIlroy (-16/272); 14-1

2018: Webb Simpson (-18/270); 100-1

2017: Si Woo Kim (-10/278); 500-1

2016: Jason Day (-15/273); 12-1

2015: Rickie Fowler (-12/276); 66-1*

2014: Martin Kaymer (-15/273); 90-1

2013: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 9-1

2012: Matt Kuchar (-13/275); 55-1

2011: K.J. Choi (-13/275); 45-1 **

2010: Tim Clark (-16/272); 100-1 

Playoff Win over Sergio Garcia & Kevin Kisner – *

Playoff Win over David Toms – ** 

The Players Championship Trends

Experience Matters

• Only twice since 1983 has a player won The Players on his course debut (Hal Sutton, 1983; Craig Perks, 2002).
• 10 of the last 14 Players winners played in at least five previous Players Championships. 
• 15 of the last 16 Players winners had a finish here of at least 23rd or better at TPC Sawgrass.

Incoming Form

• 26 of the last 26 Players winners made the cut in the previous start before their Players victories. 
• 12 of the last 13 Players winners finished 22nd or better in the previous start before their victory. 
• 11 of the last 13 Players winners had a top-5 finish in the calendar year before their victory. 

Cream Rises to the Top 

• 19 of the last 21 Players winners were rated 45th or better in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings).

Early Bird Gets the Worm

• 15 of the last 18 Players winners had a morning tee time during Thursday’s opening round. 

Statistical Analysis

Iron play will determine the winner of The Players Championship, as it always does. If you look at numbers over the past decade plus, you can see the importance of Strokes Gained: Approach:

    2024: Scheffler +6.4 (7th) — Total SG: Approach (Ranking in that week’s field)

    2023: Scheffler +7.6 (4th)

    2022: Smith +6.7 (5th)

    2021: Thomas +6.5 (5th)

    2019: Rory +6.5 (6th)

    2018: Simpson -0.7 (92nd) — ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting that week

    2017: Si Woo Kim +4.1 (16th)

    2016: Day +5.6 (9th)

    2015: Fowler +6.3 (3rd)

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 season)

1. Jackson Suber 1.118
2. Nicolai Højgaard 1.054
3. Nick Taylor 1.029
4. Tommy Fleetwood 0.999
5. Doug Ghim 0.995
6. Collin Morikawa 0.972
7. J.J. Spaun 0.965
8. Henrik Norlander 0.913
9. Sepp Straka 0.907
10. Justin Thomas 0.902
11. Joel Dahmen 0.841
12. Scottie Scheffler 0.748
13. David Lipsky 0.667
14. Maverick McNealy 0.655
15. Shane Lowry 0.650
16. Andrew Putnam 0.620
17. Camilo Villegas 0.596
18. Charley Hoffman 0.576
19. Michael Kim 0.537
20. Tom Kim 0.537
21. Karl Vilips 0.537
22. Hideki Matsuyama 0.536
23. Russell Henley 0.502

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.269
2. Tony Finau 0.808
3. Corey Conners 0.776
4. Tom Hoge 0.754
5. Lucas Glover 0.710
6. Xander Schauffele 0.678
7. Aaron Rai 0.676
8. Doug Ghim 0.659
9. Justin Thomas 0.639
10. Kurt Kitayama 0.608
11. Henrik Norlander 0.571
12. Shane Lowry 0.531
13. Keith Mitchell 0.531
14. Si Woo Kim 0.506
15. Hideki Matsuyama 0.499
16. Joel Dahmen 0.486
17. J.J. Spaun 0.469
18. Viktor Hovland 0.458
19. Patton Kizzire 0.458
20. Ludvig Åberg 0.434
21. Jhonattan Vegas 0.433
22. Andrew Novak 0.430
23. Greyson Sigg 0.414
24. Mac Meissner 0.405

Players can also gain strokes off the tee here and not necessarily just based on distance. Here are the numbers for the recent Players winners for Strokes Gained Off The Tee:

2024: Scheffler +6.4 (1st)

2023: Scheffler +4.6 (5th)

2022: Smith -5.2 (68th) — led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting and fifth for Strokes Gained: Approach

2021: Thomas +3.4 (10th)

2019: McIlroy +5.3 (2nd)

2018: Simpson +1.5 (34th)

2017: Si Woo Kim +5.4 (2nd)

2016: Day +1.9 (28th)

2015: Fowler +1.9 (26th)

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Rory McIlroy 1.003
2. Taylor Pendrith 0.930
3. Keith Mitchell 0.844
4. Robert MacIntyre 0.736
5. Rico Hoey 0.725
6. Isaiah Salinda 0.651
7. Scottie Scheffler 0.635
8. Kurt Kitayama 0.627
9. Kevin Roy 0.600
10. Alex Smalley 0.572
11. Kevin Yu 0.560
12. Luke List 0.558
13. Thomas Detry 0.545
14. Taylor Moore 0.540
15. Gary Woodland 0.527
16. Byeong Hun An 0.517
17. Alejandro Tosti 0.506
18. Ludvig Åberg 0.500

Strokes Gained Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 0.816
2. Rory McIlroy 0.730
3. Min Woo Lee 0.690
4. Patrick Fishburn 0.616
5. Keith Mitchell 0.615
6. Jhonattan Vegas 0.611
7. Rico Hoey 0.586
8. Xander Schauffele 0.557
9. Alejandro Tosti 0.547
10. Kevin Yu 0.539
11. Viktor Hovland 0.507
12. Ludvig Åberg 0.502
13. Jordan Spieth 0.500
14. Kurt Kitayama 0.446
15. Sam Stevens 0.433
16. Wyndham Clark 0.420
17. Collin Morikawa 0.417
18. Doug Ghim 0.413
19. Corey Conners 0.411
20. Byeong Hun An 0.404

Good Drives Gained will combine both off the tee and approach play since TPC Sawgrass is the ultimate positional course where players will club down off the tee to avoid the many water hazards. It also takes into account a player’s ability to reach the green even when missing the fairway. 

Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 60.2
2. Andrew Putnam 52.1
3. Scottie Scheffler 51.3
4. Aaron Rai 46
5. Collin Morikawa 45
6. Ben Kohles 43
7. Ben Griffin 41.1
8. Russell Henley 39.7
9. Xander Schauffele 39.3
10. Viktor Hovland 35.2
11. Akshay Bhatia 34.4
12. Rico Hoey 29.7
13. Tony Finau 29.3
14. Daniel Berger 29.3
15. Nick Taylor 28.6
16. Jordan Spieth 27.6
17. Michael Kim 27.6
18. Gary Woodland 27.5
19. Greyson Sigg 26.9
20. Brian Harman 26.8
21. Sepp Straka 26.2
22. Doug Ghim 26.2
23. Shane Lowry 25.6
24. Alex Smalley 25

Players will miss greens here and have to chip out of both thick rough and short grass to save pars. 

Here are the numbers for recent Players winners for Strokes Gained: Around the Green:

2024: Scheffler +3.1 (6th)

2023: Scheffler +5.0 (4th)

2022: Smith +1.4 (19th)

2021: Thomas +3.0 (12th)

2019: McIlroy +1.5 (26th)

2018: Simpson +5.0 (3rd)

2017: Si Woo Kim +4.9 (3rd)

2016: Day +3.6 (11th)

2015: Fowler +1.1 (33rd)

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Peter Malnati 0.786
2. Brian Campbell 0.760
3. Hideki Matsuyama 0.650
4. Min Woo Lee 0.646
5. Alex Smalley 0.566
6. Will Chandler 0.557
7. Mac Meissner 0.521
8. Patton Kizzire 0.498
9. Taylor Moore 0.484
10. Michael Kim 0.461
11. Andrew Novak 0.450
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.447
13. C.T. Pan 0.444
14. Davis Thompson 0.441
15. Ben Silverman 0.435
16. Brice Garnett 0.430

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 0.580
2. Justin Thomas 0.466
3. Mackenzie Hughes 0.444
4. Davis Thompson 0.432
5. Harry Hall 0.406
6. Beau Hossler 0.385
7. Maverick McNealy 0.374
8. Collin Morikawa 0.374
9. Tony Finau 0.360
10. C.T. Pan 0.360
11. Denny McCarthy 0.358
12. Chan Kim 0.323
13. Scottie Scheffler 0.316
14. Russell Henley 0.289
15. Andrew Putnam 0.280
16. Ben Griffin 0.271
17. Sungjae Im 0.264
18. Brice Garnett 0.263
19. Vince Whaley 0.263

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 73.33%
2. Keith Mitchell 71.43
3. Michael Kim 71.33
4. Scottie Scheffler 70.79
5. Kevin Roy 70.33
6. Collin Morikawa 69.51
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 69.23
8. Bud Cauley 69.12
9. Brice Garnett 68.70
10. Daniel Berger 68.66
11. Alex Smalley 68.14
12. Mac Meissner 68.10
13. Greyson Sigg 67.16
14. Henrik Norlander 66.96
15. Ryan Gerard 66.94
16. Sam Ryder 66.92
17. Rory McIlroy 66.67
18. Jacob Bridgeman 66.19
19. Shane Lowry 66.06

Scrambling (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Xander Schauffele 70.73%
2. Hideki Matsuyama 68.17
3. Henrik Norlander 66.96
4. Scottie Scheffler 66.18
5. Denny McCarthy 66.15
6. Tommy Fleetwood 66.03
7. Bud Cauley 65.73
8. Collin Morikawa 65.45
9. Maverick McNealy 65.16
10. Russell Henley 65.00
11. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.93
12. Greyson Sigg 64.87
13. Robert MacIntyre 64.85
14. Mackenzie Hughes 64.73
15. Rory McIlroy 64.08
16. Ben Silverman 64.05

Scrambling, Sand Save Percentage, Three-Putt Avoidance are all more difficult at TPC Sawgrass as opposed to the average PGA Tour course. There are plenty of opportunities to make bogey, especially with so much water on the course. 

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Michael Kim 9.33% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Kevin Roy 9.36
3. Brice Garnett 9.72
4. Nicolai Højgaard 9.72
5. Keith Mitchell 9.72
6. Andrew Putnam 10.39
7. Collin Morikawa 10.42
8. Scottie Scheffler 10.76
9. Alex Smalley 10.86
10. Sepp Straka 11.30
11. Sam Ryder 11.34
12. Jhonattan Vegas 11.40
13. Jordan Spieth 11.51
14. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 11.52
15. Denny McCarthy 11.90
16. Daniel Berger 12.04
17. J.J. Spaun 12.26
18. Bud Cauley 12.30
19. Hideki Matsuyama 12.30
20. Nick Taylor 12.30

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Xander Schauffele 9.44%
2. Scottie Scheffler 9.85
3. Patrick Fishburn 12.02
4. Bud Cauley 12.04
5. Henrik Norlander 12.04
6. Doug Ghim 12.12
7. Aaron Rai 12.23
8. Greyson Sigg 12.29
9. Andrew Novak 12.47
10. Ben Silverman 12.55
11. Tommy Fleetwood 12.60
12. Ben Griffin 12.64
13. Chan Kim 12.90
14. Andrew Putnam 12.92
15. Mac Meissner 12.96
16. Maverick McNealy 13.04
17. Collin Morikawa 13.08
18. Beau Hossler 13.11
19. Russell Henley 13.17
20. Hideki Matsuyama 13.29

Despite the course presenting many challenges, the Birdie or Better rate is about the same as tour average. Pete Dye courses are risk/reward. He forces you to hit towards the trouble, but if you execute the right shot, this course can be had with low numbers.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Cam Davis 30.86%
2. Collin Morikawa 30.21
3. Harry Hall 29.63
4. Sepp Straka 29.44
5. Patrick Cantlay 29.17
6. Karl Vilips 29.17
7. Russell Henley 28.70
8. Justin Thomas 28.70
9. Jesper Svensson 28.57
10. Adam Scott 27.78
11. Ludvig Åberg 27.45
12. Rasmus Højgaard 27.38
13. Matt Kuchar 26.85
14. Maverick McNealy 26.71
15. Joe Highsmith 26.67
16. Erik van Rooyen 26.57
17. Sungjae Im 26.54
18. Akshay Bhatia 26.52
19. Jake Knapp 26.52

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 27.93%
2. Keith Mitchell 25.82
3. Harry Hall 25.77
4. Sam Burns 25.69
5. Jacob Bridgeman 25.27
6. Joe Highsmith 25.15
7. Max Greyserman 25.10
8. Michael Kim 24.97
9. Wyndham Clark 24.88
10. Xander Schauffele 24.77
11. Nick Dunlap 24.73
12. Taylor Pendrith 24.68
13. Patton Kizzire 24.62
14. Hayden Springer 24.37
15. Jhonattan Vegas 24.37
16. Tony Finau 24.36
17. Rico Hoey 24.33
18. Maverick McNealy 24.33
19. Collin Morikawa 24.33
20. Chandler Phillips 24.33

The four par-5s have a combined Birdie Or Better rate of almost 40% and none of them are all that long. Water lurks on three of them, but players will have to attack all of them if they want to score low here.

Strokes Gained: Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Max Greyserman 24.8
2. Taylor Pendrith 22
3. Alex Smalley 21.8
4. Patrick Cantlay 21.5
5. Hayden Springer 21.1
6. Joe Highsmith 21
7. Matti Schmid 19
8. Kurt Kitayama 18.5
9. Si Woo Kim 18.5
10. Jake Knapp 16.9
11. Scottie Scheffler 16.3
12. Michael Kim 16.3
13. Andrew Novak 16.1
14. Ludvig Åberg 15.7
15. Taylor Moore 15.6
16. Billy Horschel 15.5
17. Collin Morikawa 15.5
18. Adam Scott 15.4
19. Rory McIlroy 15.1

Scottie Scheffler ranked 37th and 48th for Strokes Gained: Putting during his winning weeks at The Players. You don’t need to putt great necessarily to win here, but it never hurts as Cameron Smith proved in 2022 and Webb Simpson proved the same in 2018 when both players led their respective fields for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Aldrich Potgieter 0.936
2. Frankie Capan III 0.851
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.829
4. Will Chandler 0.801
5. Harry Hall 0.717
6. Sami Valimaki 0.695
7. Justin Lower 0.660
8. Justin Rose 0.660
9. Russell Henley 0.644
10. Sam Ryder 0.643
11. Nico Echavarria 0.641
12. Jacob Bridgeman 0.624
13. Sam Burns 0.582
14. Sungjae Im 0.578
15. Akshay Bhatia 0.559
16. Maverick McNealy 0.554
17. Nicolai Højgaard 0.553
18. Ben Kohles 0.535
19. Andrew Putnam 0.532
20. Adam Schenk 0.518

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Max Greyserman 0.749
2. Mackenzie Hughes 0.742
3. Denny McCarthy 0.699
4. Taylor Pendrith 0.592
5. Jacob Bridgeman 0.584
6. Ben Silverman 0.550
7. Jason Day 0.541
8. Thomas Detry 0.532
9. Vince Whaley 0.518
10. Xander Schauffele 0.510
11. Sam Burns 0.496
12. Beau Hossler 0.496
13. Harris English 0.491
14. Wyndham Clark 0.476
15. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.459
16. Billy Horschel 0.442
17. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.417
18. Chad Ramey 0.406
19. Erik van Rooyen 0.403

TPC Sawgrass has all the trademark characteristics of Pete Dye designs — railroad ties, dogleg fairways, strategically placed water hazards and bunkers, and risk/reward golf.

Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Courses — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 2.26
2. Brian Harman 1.74
3. Carson Young 1.69 (15 rounds)
4. Justin Thomas 1.54
5. Xander Schauffele 1.50
6. Patrick Cantlay 1.49
7. Sungjae Im 1.48
8. Ludvig Åberg 1.48 (16 rounds)
9. Hideki Matsuyama 1.37
10. Min Woo Lee 1.36 (16 rounds)
11. Corey Conners 1.25
12. Matt Fitzpatrick 1.19
13. Rory McIlroy 1.15
14. Shane Lowry 1.11
15. Tony Finau 1.07
16. Adam Scott 1.04

Selections

Ludvig Åberg (19-1, Circa Sports)

The Swede earned his biggest career win to date last month at the Genesis Invitational and was a viable contender in two major championships last year, so he has proved he can raise his game in big events.

He was just T-22 last week at Bay Hill but ranked second in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and eighth for Driving Accuracy. 

While he has only one Players start (eighth last year) as a pro, Åberg was seventh here in the 2018 Junior Players Championship. 

Åberg also moved to Ponte Vedra Beach last spring and does his practicing and training at TPC Sawgrass.

Hideki Matsuyama (33-1, FanDuel)

Matsuyama was the winner of the season opener at The Sentry in Maui.

He finished sixth here last year and fifth in 2023.

Certainly, there is extra motivation to win at The Players, considering he shot an opening-round 63 to break the course record at TPC Sawgrass before the 2020 event was canceled after the first round due to COVID-19. 

Matsuyama leads the PGA Tour this season for Scrambling and is third for Strokes Gained: Around The Green.

Patrick Cantlay (40-1, DraftKings)

Scottie Scheffler won the Players last year, while Brian Harman and Xander Schauffele were two of the three runners-up. Those players rank first, second and fourth, respectively, over the last 50 rounds for Total Strokes Gained on Pete Dye designs. And who is fifth on that list? Cantlay. 

Cantlay’s best finish at TPC Sawgrass is just 19th (2023), but we have seen players win here after previously never doing anything of note on the course. 

Typically, driving is the strength of Cantlay’s game, but he has been better on approach of late, ranking in the top 12 in each of his last three starts. 

The disappointing finish (T-31) last week at Bay Hill has drifted his price high enough where he is worth a shot. 

Shane Lowry (40-1, DraftKings)

Going back to the well here with Lowry, who was the 36-hole leader last week before stumbling on Saturday and eventually finishing T-7. 

Lowry was tied for second at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational for Greens In Regulation along with eventual winner Russell Henley. 

Looking for course form at TPC Sawgrass is often a fool’s errand, but Lowry is one of the few players who actually has put together consistent finishes in recent years here, going with three top-20 finishes in the last four years, including an eighth in 2021. 

Daniel Berger (65-1, FanDuel)

Berger looked to be heading toward a top-10 finish last week at Bay Hill before a double at the last dropped him to T-15. 

He didn’t play at The Players the last two years because of an injury in 2023 and not being qualified last year, so he should be champing at the bit to get back in the hunt here where he has two top-10s (2016, 2021) and was 13th last time out in 2022. 

Berger has a good run of form with five top-25s, three top-15s and a runner-up at Phoenix in his last six starts. 

Aaron Rai (70-1, DraftKings)

Like Åberg, Rai is now a Ponte Vedra beach local and has two solid finishes here of 19th (fourth entering the final round on his course debut in 2023) and 35th. 

We were aboard with Rai when he won his maiden PGA Tour event last fall at the Wyndham Championship and there is a sneaky and underrated course correlation with TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield as players like Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson, K.J. Choi and Davis Love III have won at both tracks. Adam Scott and Tim Clark have also won the Players and been runner-up at the Wyndham, whereas Kevin Kisner and Sergio Garcia went the reverse order.

Rai finished fourth in the Mexico Open and 11th last week at Bay Hill on courses that are both a bit long for him. TPC Sawgrass is a shorter layout where more of a premium is put on iron play, which is strength ranking seventh on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach last season. 

Doug Ghim (120-1, FanDuel)

Ghim started 2025 in relatively quiet fashion but posted his best finish of the season with a T-11 at the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago.

He ranks sixth for the season for Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.

There have also been previous good showings at The Players for Ghim, having finished sixth in 2022 and 16th last year. 

Placement markets, props, and/or matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks