Tour Championship 2025 Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Most of Scottie Scheffler’s 18 PGA Tour victories have entailed getting out to a lead and then running away and hiding. Last weekend, he had to come from behind as he trailed Robert MacIntyre by four strokes heading into Sunday’s final round of the BMW Championship. Scheffler, a +250-pre-tournament price, took the lead from MacIntyre and led by one shot heading into the 17th. After missing the green, Scheffler looked like he might struggle to save par. Then, he chipped in from 81 feet away to seal his fifth victory of the season.
Scheffler’s 2025 season has already included two major championship victories (PGA, British Open) and wins at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, the Memorial Tournament and last week’s BMW. This week, he is just +150 to repeat at the Tour Championship in Atlanta at East Lake Golf Club and to win the FedExCup for a second consecutive year. However, he will not have the luxury of having the starting strokes advantage provided to the points leader in the last few years (more on that later). Nevertheless, he is still the clear favorite for the PGA Tour regular-season finale at East Lake, even with everyone starting at even par.
In most seasons, Rory McIlroy’s year of winning the Masters, to complete the career Grand Slam, The Players Championship and at Pebble Beach would be enough to be the PGA Tour Player of the Year, but not likely for 2025.
McIlroy (+850), a three-time FedExCup winner (2016, 2019, 2022), has always prioritized these playoffs and has three wins at East Lake.
Tommy Fleetwood (14-1) followed up his near-miss in Memphis with a fourth last week in Baltimore.
Ludvig Åberg (16-1) posted another top-10 (seventh) last week for his third in his last four events.
Russell Henley (20-1) was fourth here last year and officially clinched a spot on the Ryder Cup team last weekend for the first time in his career.
Next in the market are 2021 Tour Championship winner Patrick Cantlay (25-1), 2023 Tour Championship winner Viktor Hovland (28-1) and Collin Morikawa (28-1), who had the lowest 72-hole score here last year but finished runner-up to Scheffler under the starting strokes format, Sam Burns (28-1), fourth last week, and Justin Thomas (28-1).
The Field
The top 30 golfers in the FedExCup standings will compete for $40 million, with $10 million awarded to the winner.
The starting strokes format that has been played at the last six Tour Championships has been eliminated. All 30 players in the field will start at even par in a stroke-play tournament. The winner after 72 holes will capture the FedEx Cup and collect a bonus and five-year PGA Tour exemption.
The Course
East Lake Golf Club has been the permanent home for the Tour Championship since 2004. Located about five miles east of downtown Atlanta, East Lake, the oldest course in the city, was designed by Donald Ross in 1913 and has received several renovations, most recently by Andrew Green in 2023-2024.
Since the 2023 Tour Championship concluded, no golf was played here until last year’s event. The course was completely redone, including the removal of hundreds of trees, all turf was replaced, and every green was redesigned.
The course has been lengthened from 7,346 to 7,490 yards for a par-70 as the 14th returns to a par-4 after a one-year experiment. Last year, No. 14, at 580 yards on the card, played as the easiest hole for the week with a 4.33 scoring average. For this year’s Tour Championship, the hole will play 50 yards shorter at 530 yards for a long par-4.
The greens are now planted with TifEagle Bermuda (replacing Mini-Verde) and sit lower and are larger (6,238 square feet average) and run faster at 12.5-13 on the stimpmeter. In addition to refurbished bunkers and greens, Green recontoured the fairways to create more movement. In dry conditions, they’ll run faster with the switch to Zoysia. East Lake is seen as a bit too straightforward of a layout, so the tees were changed to give the players more options instead of just ripping driver off the tee, plus the addition of more fairway bunkers. Eight holes now have water in play when it was previously six before the latest renovation.
The fairways are on the narrower side, averaging just 30 yards wide, and the Bermuda rough at 3.5 inches is tricky.
East Lake Golf Club provides a video chronicle of the course renovations.
Comparable courses to East Lake include TPC Southwind (Zoysia fairways), Quail Hollow, PGA National, Augusta National and Memorial Park. Other Ross designs featured on the PGA Tour in recent years include Pinehurst No. 2, Detroit GC, Sedgefield and Oak Hill.
Weather
Per the AccuWeather forecast, Atlanta will live up to the moniker of “HotLanta” as play gets underway on Thursday. However, it will cool down a bit, especially on Friday and Saturday with rain expected.
Tour Championship Recent History
Tour Championship Winners
2024: Scottie Scheffler -30 (-20/264); 11-10
2023: Viktor Hovland -27 (-19/261); 5-1
2022: Rory McIlroy -21 (-17/263); 12-1
2021: Patrick Cantlay -21 (-11/269); 4-1
2020: Dustin Johnson -21 (-11/269); 2-1
2019: Rory McIlroy -18 (-13/267); 9-1
2018: Tiger Woods (-11/269); 14-1
2017: Xander Schauffele (-12/268); 100-1
2016: Rory McIlroy (-12/268); 13-2*
2015: Jordan Spieth (-9/271); 9-1
2014: Billy Horschel (-11/269); 25-1
2013: Henrik Stenson (-13/267); 16-1
2012: Brandt Snedeker (-10/270); 40-1
2011: Bill Haas (-8/272); 45-1**
2010: Jim Furyk (-8/272); 20-1
2009: Phil Mickelson (-9/271)
2008: Camilo Villegas (-7/273)**
2007: Tiger Woods (-23/257)
Playoff Win over Kevin Chappell & Ryan Moore – *
Playoff Win over Hunter Mahan – **
Playoff Win over Sergio Garcia – ***
72-Hole Low Scorers
2024: Collin Morikawa 12-1 (-22/262)
2023: Viktor Hovland 12-1 and Xander Schauffele 12-1 (-19/261)
2022: Rory McIlroy; 8-1 (-17/263)
2021: Kevin Na; 70-1 and Jon Rahm; 7-1 (-14/266)
2020: Xander Schauffele; 12-1 (-12/268)
2019: Rory McIlroy; 8-1 (-13/267)
Note: East Lake Golf Club played as a par-71 for the 2024 Tour Championship.
Statistical Analysis
The course is long for a par-70 at over 7,400 yards, and the fairways were widened a tad after the renovation, but a combination of both distance and accuracy is needed for success here.
Total Driving (Distance Rank + Accuracy Rank) — 2025 PGA Tour season
- Scottie Scheffler 98 (51 + 47)
- Ludvig Åberg 112 (18 + 94)
- J.J. Spaun 122 (62 + 60)
- Keegan Bradley 124 (63 + 61)
- Sam Burns 130 (53 + 77)
- Viktor Hovland 134 (82 + 52)
- Tommy Fleetwood 144 (118 + 26)
- Sungjae Im 148 (135 + 13)
- Corey Conners 149 (130 + 19)
- Collin Morikawa 149 (144 + 5)
Distance from the edge of the fairway is the average distance (in feet and inches) from the edge of the fairway when the player hits the fairway. Zoysia fairways typically have a good amount of bounce, so some drives will bounce out of the fairways. This is a good metric to judge a player’s misses. The smaller the number indicates barely missing when the ball finally stops.
Distance From the Edge of the Fairway (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Russell Henley 18′ 6″ (feet, inches)
- Collin Morikawa 19′ 2″
- Corey Conners 20′ 6″
- Sepp Straka 21′ 6″
- Nick Taylor 22′ 2″
- Brian Harman 22′ 6″
- Shane Lowry 22′ 9″
- Scottie Scheffler 23′ 2″
- Keegan Bradley 23′ 4″
- J.J. Spaun 23′ 4″
Good Drives are drives where the player either hits the fairway off the tee OR the player misses the fairway but still hits the green or fringe in regulation.
Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Russell Henley 53.6
- Corey Conners 49.4
- Tommy Fleetwood 49.1
- Scottie Scheffler 43.2
- Collin Morikawa 42.9
- Sepp Straka 36.9
- Harris English 35.9
- J.J. Spaun 35.5
- Viktor Hovland 31.2
- Shane Lowry 30.1
Even after the renovations, the course is in front of the players and there are no doglegs off the tee, so distance of the tee still matters here.
Average Driving Distance (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Rory McIlroy 323.9
- Chris Gotterup 316.7
- Ludvig Åberg 313.8
- Cameron Young 313.5
- Scottie Scheffler 307.5
- Sam Burns 307.2
- J.J. Spaun 306.3
- Keegan Bradley 306.2
- Maverick McNealy 305.9
- Patrick Cantlay 305.4
- Ben Griffin 305.0
It has been historically easier to gain strokes off the tee than on approach here at East Lake.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 1.294
- Viktor Hovland 0.993
- Collin Morikawa 0.847
- Shane Lowry 0.781
- Sepp Straka 0.780
- J.J. Spaun 0.758
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.715
- Akshay Bhatia 0.600
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.576
- Russell Henley 0.564
- Patrick Cantlay 0.559
Around five holes will require an approach at or over 200 yards.
Proximity Gained — Feet Gained Toward Hole Per Round (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 21.91
- Viktor Hovland 19.72
- Akshay Bhatia 17.99
- Hideki Matsuyama 16.27
- Ludvig Åberg 15.11
- Russell Henley 12.98
- Sepp Straka 9.58
- Nick Taylor 6.29
- Tommy Fleetwood 5.98
- Andrew Novak 3.87
Twelve of the 18 holes are par-4s on this par-70 layout.
Strokes Gained Par-4s (Last 50 rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler 93.9
- Sam Burns 64.9
- Chris Gotterup 58.1
- Cameron Young 51.5
- Tommy Fleetwood 51.4
- Rory McIlroy 50.5
- Patrick Cantlay 41.1
- J.J. Spaun 39.3
- Harry Hall 39.1
- Ben Griffin 38.6
Before the Andrew Green renovations, Rees Jones redesigned the greens and bunkers to more closely resemble Ross’s original design. The greens sit elevated above the surrounding bunkers and feature challenging slopes that test players’ short games.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Sungjae Im 0.583
- Hideki Matsuyama 0.493
- Russell Henley 0.490
- Keegan Bradley 0.441
- Harry Hall 0.379
- Tommy Fleetwood 0.297
- Scottie Scheffler 0.295
- Justin Thomas 0.211
- Andrew Novak 0.196
- Brian Harman 0.166
- Ben Griffin 0.152
The greens at East Lake are Bermuda and will run faster on the stimpmeter.
Strokes Gained: Putting — Bermuda Greens (Last 50 rounds)
- Harry Hall 35.6
- Sam Burns 34.2
- Ben Griffin 27
- Jacob Bridgeman 26.9
- Robert MacIntyre 21.3
- Russell Henley 20.8
- Rory McIlroy 20.2
- Cameron Young 18.5
- Maverick McNealy 17.1
- Chris Gotterup 15.1
With the tricky Bermuda rough, challenging slopes on the greens and increased hazards, East Lake, while a fairly “meat and potatoes” course, does present some challenges and potential bogeys are out there.
Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)
- Scottie Scheffler 10.65% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
- Sepp Straka 13.43
- Chris Gotterup 13.45
- Russell Henley 13.45
- Harry Hall 13.46
- Ben Griffin 14.07
- Rory McIlroy 14.09
- Nick Taylor 14.47
- J.J. Spaun 14.56
- Patrick Cantlay 14.65
Selections
I will be sprinkling some of these on exacta prices with Scottie Scheffler on top as well this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (14-1, DraftKings)
I’m ready to get hurt again, like two weeks ago in Memphis.
Fleetwood, to his credit, rebounded from another gag with a T-4 last week at the BMW Championship and was one of three players (Scheffler, Viktor Hovland the others) in this week’s Tour Championship field to gain strokes in all categories.
TPC Southwind has a strong correlation to East Lake and Fleetwood was the best player in the field for most of that event two weeks ago.
Viktor Hovland (30-1, FanDuel)
Hovland not only won the FedExCup here two years ago but was also the low 72-hole scorer.
The Norwegian was also eighth here last year and 4th in 2021, so he has taken a liking to this place.
He ranks second to Scheffler on the season for Strokes Gained: Approach and was third in last week’s field for the same category.
Sam Burns (30-1, FanDuel)
Burns finished T-4 last week in Baltimore but was briefly in contention on Sunday.
He was second last week for both Putting and Scrambling, so the short game looks to be in good shape as “Bermuda Burns” goes to his more preferred putting surface this week in Atlanta.
Placement markets, matchups, and/or props will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
