U.S. Open Predictions and Golf Odds

U.S. Open Predictions and Golf Odds:

The 125th edition of the U.S. Open takes place this week at Oakmont Country Club, located about 20 minutes northeast of Pittsburgh. Oakmont will host the U.S. Open for the 10th time, and no other club has hosted the national championship with greater frequency.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+275) has won three of his last four events, including the previous major, the PGA Championship last month. Scheffler, a winner of three major championships, has never won the U.S. Open but finished T-2 at the Country Club (Brookline) in 2022 and third the following year at the Los Angeles Country Club.

Last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 came down to Bryson DeChambeau (9-1) winning his second U.S. Open title after Rory McIlroy (12-1) made three bogeys in his final four holes, which included a missed two-foot par putt on 16 and a missed three-foot par putt on the closing hole at 18 to lose by one stroke. DeChambeau got up and down from 50 yards out of a bunker to seal the victory. 

DeChambeau has finished in the top 5 in both majors in 2025, while McIlroy finally completed his career Grand Slam at the Masters in April. McIlroy missed his first cut since the 2024 British Open this past weekend at the RBC Canadian Open. 

Jon Rahm (12-1) was briefly tied with Scheffler during the final round of the PGA Championship before going 5 over par over his final three holes to finish T-8. The 2021 U.S. Open champion contended in a major for the first time in over a year and a half last month and has been consistent on LIV Golf, having never finished outside the top 10 in any of those events.

Xander Schauffele (22-1), a winner of both the PGA and Open Championships last year, has gotten off to a slow start in 2025 because of a rib injury but has finished in the top 5 at the U.S. Open in three of the last eight years. 

Collin Morikawa (25-1) has finished in the top 5 at the U.S. Open twice (2021, 2022). 

Joaquin Niemann (33-1) has won four of the eight LIV Golf events in 2025, and his T-8 last month at the PGA Championship was his first career top-10 finish in a major.

The mid-range prices include Ludvig Åberg (35-1), Justin Thomas (40-1), Tommy Fleetwood (40-1), Shane Lowry (45-1), Sepp Straka (50-1), Patrick Cantlay (50-1), Tyrrell Hatton (50-1) and Brooks Koepka (55-1). 

Dustin Johnson (170-1) won the U.S. Open the last time it was held at Oakmont in 2016. 

The Event

This is the 125th U.S. Open Championship. The U.S. Open, which was first played in 1895, was not contested for two years (1917-1918) during World War I and for four years (1942-1945) during World War II.

The youngest winner of the U.S. Open is 19-year-old John McDermott, who won in 1911; he is among nine players age 21 or younger who have won the U.S. Open.

The oldest winner is Hale Irwin, who was 45 and playing on a special exemption when he won his third U.S. Open title in 1990. Irwin also won in 1974 and 1979.

There are four four-time U.S. Open winners: Willie Anderson (1901, 1903, 1904, 1905), amateur Bob Jones (1923, 1926, 1929, 1930), Ben Hogan (1948, 1950, 1951, 1953), and Jack Nicklaus (1962, 1967, 1972, 1980).  

Only six players have won the Masters and U.S. Open titles in the same year: Craig Wood (1941), Ben Hogan (1951, 1953), Arnold Palmer (1960), Jack Nicklaus (1972), Tiger Woods (2002) and Jordan Spieth (2015).

Last year’s U.S. Open winner, Bryson DeChambeau, earned $4.3 million of a $21.5 million purse that was the highest among the four major championships. 

This year’s U.S. Open winner will not only receive a similar check amount but also the following:

• A U.S. Open exemption for the next 10 years

• An invitation to the next five Masters tournaments

• An invitation to the next five Open Championships, conducted by The R&A

• An invitation to the next five PGA Championships

• An invitation to the next five Players Championships

• Exempt status on the PGA Tour for five years

• Custody of the U.S. Open Trophy for one year, Jack Nicklaus Medal and a replica trophy

The Field

A record 10,202 entries were received by the USGA (United States Golf Association) to take part in this year’s U.S. Open. Aside from those already exempt, players had to go through local and final qualifying to make this year’s field of 156 players, which will be cut to the low 60 scorers and ties after 36 holes. 

The Course

Oakmont Country Club, located in Oakmont, Pa., is hosting the U.S. Open for the 10th time (1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994, 2007, 2016, 2025), the most of any course in history. 

Designed by Henry Fownes, Oakmont Country Club opened in 1903. Fownes spent a year building the course on former farmland adjacent to the Allegheny River Valley. The Pennsylvania Turnpike, which was constructed in the late 1940s, passes through part of the course. Oakmont was the nation’s first golf course to be recognized as a National Historic Landmark. 

Tom Fazio did the renovation in 2007, removing more than 5,000 trees to restore the course to the original intentions of Fownes. Today, almost no trees remain standing in the interior of the course. Gil Hanse conducted the 2023 renovation, which included 24,000 square feet of green expansions, 330,000 square feet of bunker renovations and two acres of fairway expansion.

The par-70 has been lengthened from 7,219 yards to 7,372 yards since the last U.S. Open held here in 2016. 

Even with the added length, Oakmont is still not a long course by modern standards. The difficulty lies in other areas, particularly the narrow fairways (28 yards on average) surrounded by Kentucky bluegrass/ryegrass/poa annua that is five inches thick. 

Although there is no water on the course, there are 168 bunkers, the most of any course on the schedule. They are not traditional bunkers either. For instance, the “Church Pew” is placed between the fairways on Nos. 3 and 4 and is 108 yards long and 43 yards wide and filled with more than 26,000 square feet of sand. The “Sahara” bunker runs along the left of the No. 8 green and is 100 yards in length. The “Piano Keys” bunker at No. 15 runs along the entire left side of the hole and forces players to hit their tee shot to the right of the fairway to avoid the hazard. The “Big Mouth” bunker is blind of the tee of the drivable par-4 No. 17 and short right of the green. Hitting into these bunkers is, by and large, at least a shot penalty. Oftentimes, players will have awkward lies in them and will be forced into hitting out sideways or backward to avoid hitting the lips of these difficult bunkers.

The ditches that criss-cross the property were more playable in the 2016 U.S. Open but will not be this time around with 12-18-inch-high native grasses.

The poa annua greens were also expanded (8,500 square feet on average) but will be lightning fast at around 14-15 on the stimpmeter. Despite their size, these greens will be arguably the most difficult that the players will face all year because of not only the speed but also the various slopes and undulations that players will have to factor in on their approach shots. Some players will play Oakmont a bit like a links layout and run their shots onto the greens. Grounds superintendent Mike McCormick says, “the greens are the No. 1 defense on the course. Oakmont, in today’s world, it’s not a crazy-long golf course. There are several holes out here where the players will be hitting wedges into, and it puts even more of an emphasis on the greens.”

The average round score here at Oakmont for the past two U.S. Opens was +4.63 strokes over par, the highest of any U.S. Open course this century. 

The USGA provides a hole-by-hole flyover of Oakmont. 

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette also provides a hole-by-hole flyover of Oakmont. 

Two-time U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau played a practice round at Oakmont last week and posted it to his YouTube page.

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast indicates a hot first two days, but a cooling off over the weekend, with likely rain on Saturday, but with very little wind throughout the event. 

U.S. Open Recent History 

2024: Bryson DeChambeau (-6/274); Pinehurst No. 2; 20-1

2023: Wyndham Clark (-10/270); Los Angeles Country Club (North Course); 70-1

2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6/274); The Country Club (Brookline); 30-1

2021: Jon Rahm (-6/278); Torrey Pines (South Course); 10-1

2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6/274); Winged Foot (West Course); 25-1

2019: Gary Woodland (-13/271); Pebble Beach; 80-1 

2018: Brooks Koepka (+1/281); Shinnecock Hills; 25-1 

2017: Brooks Koepka (-16/272); Erin Hills; 45-1 

2016: Dustin Johnson (-4/276); Oakmont; 16-1 

2015: Jordan Spieth (-5/275); Chambers Bay; 9-1 

2014: Martin Kaymer (-9/271); Pinehurst No. 2; 40-1 

2013: Justin Rose (+1/281); Merion (East Course); 28-1 

2012: Webb Simpson (+1/281); Olympic Club (Lake Course); 80-1 

2011: Rory McIlroy (-16/268); Congressional (Blue Course); 22-1 

2010: Graeme McDowell (E/284); Pebble Beach; 80-1 

U.S. Open Champions Lead In-Form 

2024: DeChambeau (OWGR No. 38): 2 top-5s, 5 top-10s 

2023: Clark (No. 32); 1 Win (Wells Fargo Championship), 3 top-5s, 4 top-10s

2022: Fitzpatrick (No. 18): 3 top-5s, 7 top-10s

2021: Rahm (No. 3): 3 top-5s, 7 top-10s

2020: DeChambeau (No. 9): 1 Win (Rocket Mortgage Classic), 6 top-5s, 9 top-10s

2019: Woodland (No. 24): 1 top-5, 4 top-10s 

2018: Koepka (No. 9): 1 top-5, 1 top-10* 

2017: Koepka (No. 22): 1 top-5, 1 top-10 

2016: D. Johnson (No. 6): 5 top-5s, 7 top-10s 

2015: Spieth (No. 2): 2 Wins (Valspar, Masters), 7 top-5s, 9 top-10s 

2014: Kaymer (No. 28): 1 Win (Players), 1 top-5, 1 top-10 

2013: Rose (No. 5): 3 top-5s, 5 top-10s 

2012: Simpson (No. 13): 2 top-5s. 4 top-10s 

2011: McIlroy (No. 7): 3 top-5s, 6 top-10s 

2010: McDowell (No. 36): 1 Win (Wales Open), 2 top-5s, 4 top-10s 

* Koepka had missed the first four months of the 2018 season with injury. 

U.S. Open Trends

• Every U.S. Open winner since 2008 had at least one top-10 in his previous five starts heading into the event and 15 of the last 17 had at least one top-5 in his previous five starts heading into the event.
• 15 of the last 17 U.S. Open winners made the cut in their previous major.
• 8 of the last 9 U.S. Open winners had at least a top-6 finish or better in a previous major.
• 14 of the last 17 U.S. Open winners had at least one previous top-10 at a major championship.
• 10 of the last 13 U.S. Open winners posted at least one top-15 finish in at least one of their two most recent incoming starts leading into the U.S. Open.
• 9 of the last 13 U.S. Open winners have been Americans.
• 8 of the last 14 U.S. Open winners were ranked in the OWGR Top 15.
• 12 of the last 14 U.S. Open winners and 13 of the last 17 were ranked in the OWGR Top 30. 
• 14 of the last 17 U.S. Open winners were between the ages of 26 and 32.
• 7 of the last 9 U.S. Open winners and 8 of the last 12 won their first major at the U.S. Open.
• The oldest winner of the U.S. Open since 2008 was Gary Woodland in 2019 at age 35. 

Statistical Analysis

In the 2007 U.S. Open held at Oakmont, championship winner Angel Cabrera ranked 2nd in the field for Driving Distance. In the 2016 U.S. Open also held at Oakmont, championship winner Dustin Johnson ranked first in the field for Driving Distance. 

Driving Distance (Last 50 rounds)

1. Joaquin Niemann 326.19
2. Bryson DeChambeau 324.06
3. Jon Rahm 322.0
4. Niklas Norgaard 321.30
5. Sam Bairstow 317.31
6. Rasmus Højgaard 316.38
7. Chris Gotterup 315.42
8. Min Woo Lee 314.63
9. Rory McIlroy 314.47
10. Cameron Young 313.40
11. Gary Woodland 313.28
12. Dustin Johnson 313.10
13. Wyndham Clark 312.09
14. Brooks Koepka 311.64
15. Ludvig Åberg 310.59
16. Tyrrell Hatton 309.79
17. Erik van Rooyen 308.77
18. Max Greyserman 308.51
19. Taylor Pendrith 308.34
20. Carlos Ortiz 308.32
21. Matthew Jordan 307.98
22. Xander Schauffele 307.78
23. Davis Riley 307.70
24. Frederic Lacroix 307.46
25. Justin Thomas 307.13

The fairways are narrow here (28 yards wide on average) and the rough is treacherous. 

Driving Accuracy (Last 50 rounds)

1. Takumi Kanaya 72.0%
2. Collin Morikawa 71.5
3. Aaron Rai 69.5
4. Zac Blair 67.6
5. Sungjae Im 67.5
6. Lucas Glover 67.2
7. Russell Henley 66.7
8. Daniel Berger 66.3
9. Corey Conners 66.0
10. Emiliano Grillo 65.8
11. Richard Bland 65.0
12. Nick Taylor 65.0
13. Sepp Straka 64.9
14. Brian Campbell 64.7
15. Scottie Scheffler 64.2
16. Si Woo Kim 64.0
17. Laurie Canter 63.9
18. Shane Lowry 63.8
19. Tyrrell Hatton 63.7
20. Jon Rahm 63.7
21. Justin Lower 63.5
22. Harris English 63.4
23. Joaquin Niemann 63.2
24. Victor Perez 63.0

With the speed and firmness of the greens, spin control on approach shots is absolutely paramount. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.310 
2. Marc Leishman 1.029
3. Sepp Straka 1.021
4. Shane Lowry 1.020
5. Tyrrell Hatton 0.824
6. Joaquin Niemann 0.796
7. Viktor Hovland 0.778
8. Collin Morikawa 0.739
9. Brooks Koepka 0.646
10. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.628
11. Jon Rahm 0.607
12. Patrick Cantlay 0.592
13. Richard Bland 0.581
14. Xander Schauffele 0.579
15. J.J. Spaun 0.579
16. Justin Thomas 0.576
17. Patrick Reed 0.570
18. Rory McIlroy 0.563
19. Tommy Fleetwood 0.562
20. Keegan Bradley 0.556
21. Bud Cauley 0.543
22. Daniel Berger 0.525
23. Doug Ghim 0.500

Even with these massive greens, players will still miss their fair share and have to scramble to save pars and even bogeys.

Scrambling Percentage (Last 50 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 72.6%
2. Bryson DeChambeau 71.7
3. Richard Bland 69.8
4. Chris Gotterup 69.4
5. Patrick Reed 69.1
6. Daniel Berger 68.6
7. Min Woo Lee 68.5
8. Bud Cauley 68.2
9. Shane Lowry 67.5
10. Michael Kim 67.3
11. Jordan L Smith 66.9
12. Harris English 66.7
13. Si Woo Kim 66.4
14. Andrew Novak 66.2
15. Hideki Matsuyama 65.9
16. Thorbjørn Olesen 65.6
17. Robert MacIntyre 65.3
18. Matt Wallace 65.3
19. Takumi Kanaya 65.2
20. Russell Henley 65.0
21. Tom Hoge 65.0

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Matt Wallace 0.674
2. Jon Rahm 0.671
3. Sungjae Im 0.656
4. Cameron Smith 0.573
5. Bryson DeChambeau 0.512
6. Hideki Matusyama 0.491
7. Guido Migliozzi 0.485
8. Junichiro Kozuma 0.452
9. Andrea Pavan 0.413
10. Si Woo Kim 0.411
11. Marc Leishman 0.372
12. Michael Kim 0.368
13. Justin Thomas 0.368
14. Tommy Fleetwood 0.366
15. Patrick Reed 0.338
16. Min Woo Lee 0.338
17. Mackenzie Hughes 0.330
18. Keegan Bradley 0.324
19. Jason Day 0.306
20. Jordan Spieth 0.293
21. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.291
22. Scottie Scheffler 0.291
23. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 0.289

The greens at Oakmont will be lightning fast at anywhere between 14 to 15 on the stimpmeter. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round — Fast Greens (Last 50 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 1.398
2. Sam Stevens 0.897
3. Denny McCarthy 0.839
4. Cameron Smith 0.677
5. Mackenzie Hughes 0.656
6. Adam Scott 0.639
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.615
8. J.T. Poston 0.602
9. Maverick McNealy 0.600
10. Sam Burns 0.596
11. Matt Fitzpatrick 0.586
12. Bryson DeChambeau 0.571
13. Sungjae Im 0.504
14. Victor Perez 0.494
15. Marc Leishman 0.470
16. Jon Rahm 0.444
17. Mark Hubbard 0.384
18. Jordan Spieth 0.365
19. Tyrrell Hatton 0.363
20. Patrick Reed 0.356
21. Thomas Detry 0.320
22. Daniel Berger 0.299
23. Nick Taylor 0.298
24. Joaquin Niemann 0.277
25. Cameron Young 0.271

Only four players at the last U.S. Open held at Oakmont in 2016 finished the championship under par. Every player will make bogeys here, but keeping them to a bare minimum will play a large role in determining the winner.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (Last 50 rounds)

1. Joaquin Niemann 8.8% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Scottie Scheffler 9.3
3. Jon Rahm 9.9
4. Tyrrell Hatton 10.6
5. Patrick Reed 11.5
6. Shane Lowry 11.6
7. Richard Bland 12.2
8. Sepp Straka 12.4
9. Michael Kim 12.7
10. Jordan L Smith 12.8
11. Russell Henley 12.9
12. Takumi Kanaya 13.1
13. Nick Taylor 13.1
14. Bud Cauley 13.2
15. Robert MacIntyre 13.2
16. Chris Gotterup 13.3
17. Collin Morikawa 13.4
18. Justin Thomas 13.4
19. Harris English 13.5
20. Zac Blair 13.5
21. Thorbjørn Olesen 13.5
22. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 13.7
23. Cameron Smith 13.9
24. Rory McIlroy 14.0

Oakmont is always a difficult test, and this year will be no exception. 

Strokes Gained Total — Average Per Round — Hard Courses (Last 50 rounds)

1. Jon Rahm 1.857
2. Scottie Scheffler 1.840
3. Rory McIlroy 1.801
4. Jordan Spieth 1.771
5. Collin Morikawa 1.704
6. Dustin Johnson 1.680
7. Patrick Cantlay 1.497
8. Brooks Koepka 1.429
9. Ludvig Åberg 1.427
10. Tony Finau 1.367
11. Xander Schauffele 1.357
12. Hideki Matsuyama 1.307
13. Jason Day 1.302
14. Tommy Fleetwood 1.260
15. Justin Rose 1.234
16. Viktor Hovland 1.225
17. Matthew Jordan 1.175
18. Laurie Canter 1.173
19. Tyrrell Hatton 1.145
20. Patrick Reed 1.119
21. Shane Lowry 1.070
22. Adam Scott 1.064
23. Matt Fitzpatrick 1.030

Selections

Bryson DeChambeau (+750, DraftKings)

DeChambeau seems to relish the challenge of long, classical parklands golf courses like Oakmont. 

Of DeChambeau’s 12 combined victories on the PGA Tour and LIV, 10 of them have been on Bentgrass or Bentgrass/Poa Annua, and nine of those wins have come in the eastern part of the country. 

He has been in the mix in both majors this year, having played in the final group on Sunday with McIlroy at the Masters and rallying to finish T-2 at the PGA after seeing his hopes end in the water on the 17th during Saturday’s third round. 

Jon Rahm (+1350, Circa Sports)

It seemed like it had been a while for Rahm to be in the thick of it in a major championship, but he was in the mix at last month’s PGA before fading to a T-8 finish courtesy of “The Green Mile” at Quail Hollow where he undoubtedly went for broke in pursuit of staying with Scheffler.

While he has yet to win anywhere in 2025, Rahm has been a model of consistency, having never finished outside of the top 10 in any LIV event.

Rahm also was the low amateur here at Oakmont in 2016 — finishing 23rd. Starting with a Thursday 76, Rahm proceeded to shoot 69-72-70 for a +1/211 final 54-hole total.

Xander Schauffele (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Schauffele is not exactly in peak form and looks to be far off from where he was this time last summer when he was sandwiched between two major championships.

However, he has finished inside the top 10 at the U.S. Open in seven of eight career starts and has never finished lower than 14th, so he certainly has the game and patient temperament for the grind of a U.S. Open. 

He got off to a slow start this year because of a rib injury that kept him out for two months but is slowly on his way back and has gained tee-to-green in each of his last six starts. 

Joaquin Niemann (30-1, DraftKings)

Niemann has four victories on LIV Golf this year, including last weekend at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Virginia. 

His T-8 last month at the PGA was his first top-10 in a major championship and he seems to be getting more comfortable competing with the game’s top players.

His most recent victories, including last weekend in Virginia and at Chapultepec (Mexico City), were both on Poa Annua greens. 

Viktor Hovland (60-1, DraftKings)

The 11-time PGA Tour/DP World Tour winner has had an up-and-down season despite winning earlier in March at the Valspar Championship. 

Hovland’s main weakness, aside from constantly tinkering with his swing, is around the greens. However, he has gained around the greens in 12 of 19 major championship starts. The Norwegian is much better chipping and punching out of thick rough than tight lies around the green. 

He finished third in the 2023 PGA Championship on a similar layout at Oak Hill.

Harris English (100-1, FanDuel)

English finished T-2 at last month’s PGA, 12th at the Masters and also won for us earlier this year at Torrey Pines South, a former U.S. Open venue, for the Farmers Insurance Open at 100-1. 

He has three top-8 finishes in his last five U.S. Opens, so he has the game made for this major.

Matt Fitzpatrick (125-1, Circa Sports)

Fitzpatrick is no stranger to winning a major championship on a classical design, having won the 2022 U.S. Open held at The Country Club (Brookline). 

He finished T-8 last month at the PGA and is one of the better putters out there on the lightning-fast greens that the players will see this week. 

Placement markets, matchups, props, and any other wagers will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks