Here’s what VSiN’s golf experts learned from the first round of the U.S. Open and how they will apply those learnings to today’s second round.
MATT YOUMANS
It’s hard to believe, but scoring in the low 60s is possible in this US Open, so several players at -1 or better are in good shape after the first day. Fowler and Schauffele will come back to the pack at some point soon. I’m waiting to see if double-digit odds appear on Scottie Scheffler, who’s getting a market-high +750 at Circa. The only win bet I’m adding tonight is Jon Rahm at 24/1 at Circa. Rahmbo is 1 under and certainly capable of shooting 64 or 65 on Friday or Saturday.
WES REYNOLDS
It was a record-setting day at the 123rd U.S. Open on the first-time host course at the Los Angeles Country Club. In the early morning groups, Rickie Fowler, one of our tips at 59/1, shot an 8-under round of 62 having made 10 birdies. Fowler, who led the field for Strokes Gained Putting (+4.72) on Thursday, reunited with his Las Vegas-based coach Butch Harmon and has shown consistency that has not been there for the last three years. However, Fowler was matched by another Southern Californian Xander Schauffele with a bogey-free 62 just 30 minutes later. Schauffele also led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach (+4.30).
Fowler (+650) and Schauffele (currently favored at 3/1 at DraftKings) carded the lowest rounds ever in a U.S. Open. There were six scores of 65 (5-under) or better posted in Thursday’s first round. That is the most of any U.S. Open round in history.
Dustin Johnson (+850) and Wyndham Clark (12/1) both shot 6-under 64s while Brian Harman (50/1) and Rory McIlroy (5/1), another one of our selections, shot 5-under 65.
A septet of players shot 3-under 67, including pre-tournament favorite and OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+650) and Bryson DeChambeau (22/1), who is also on our pre-event card. Scheffler ranked 148th on the season for Strokes Gained: Putting coming into this week, but gained +1.42 strokes on the field with the flat stick in R1. No one on the planet has been better tee-to-green this year which is why the desired 10/1 for an in-play price is not coming at least to start Friday’s round.
Eighty-five percent of U.S. Open winners since 1970 have been within 5 shots of the lead after round 1, so that would make 3-under the cutoff for potential winners on Sunday night.
However, that excludes top players like those at 2-under like Tony Finau and Max Homa (both 35/1 overnight at DraftKings) as well as Jon Rahm (18/1), Victor Hovland (35/1), and Cameron Smith (55/1).
Both McIlroy (who drove the ball beautifully as he was 2nd for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee) and Dustin Johnson (85th in Strokes Gained: Putting after R1) ended their stellar rounds with bogeys on their respective last holes. They look to be the most dangerous chasers of the leaders, outside of Scheffler, after 18 holes.
As of now, no in-play adds with three of our pre-tournament outrights on the first page of the leaderboard.
MATT BROWN
>I guessed that LACC was going to allow for scoring if you played the course correctly. What I didn’t expect was two all-timer rounds out of Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele, each going for 8-under 62s. Make no mistake, LACC is not easy. We saw a few low scores, yes. But 156 golfers teed it up on Thursday, and only 37 finished the day under par. I do expect them to try and add some wrinkles to the course on Friday, but hopefully, they don’t overcorrect. Guys that played really well, scored. Those that didn’t, finished the day with a disappointing round. Some big-name golfers headed into Friday hoping to get back into red numbers include Sungjae Im (+1), Collin Morikawa (+1), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1), Brooks Koepka (+1), Patrick Cantlay (+1), Hideki Matsuyama (+2), Cam Young (+2), Justin Thomas (+3), Tommy Fleetwood (+3), Jason Day (+3), and Tyrell Hatton (+4).
>Dustin Johnson enters Friday tied for third after shooting 6-under on Thursday. The interesting thing about DJ, is that he did so while losing 0.78 strokes putting on the round. That put him at 103rd in SG: Putting on the day. He was the 103rd-ranked putter in the field. If DJ can get the ball rolling a little better, he could improve on an already impressive start.
>Jon Rahm managed to shoot 1-under despite losing to the field around the green (-0.37), and off the tee (-1.50). Rahm drove it about as badly as he possibly could have (142nd out of 156), and STILL shot under par. Rahm is 18/1 to win the tournament, but perhaps a more interesting bet is the (+115) that’s being offered live for a top 10. Rahm won’t drive it this poorly again.
>Others that should find more success on Friday include Brooks Koepka (lost everywhere but around the green), Jordan Spieth (133rd putting, 121st on approach), and Patrick Cantlay, who was absolutely atrocious on approach in round 1 (127th), despite entering the tournament inside the top 20 in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds.
>Only add for me was Xander over Patrick Reed in a H2H.
