Zurich Classic of New Orleans Best Bets and Golf Odds:
Several highly ranked players were seeking to end winless droughts, but it was Justin Thomas, at a pre-tournament price of 20-1, who snapped a nearly three-year spell to win last weekend’s RBC Heritage in a playoff over Andrew Novak.
Thomas drained a 21-foot birdie putt on the first playoff hole to defeat Novak, who now has two runners-up, plus two third-place finishes since last November, as he still seeks his maiden PGA Tour victory.
Rounding out the top 5 was a four-way tie for third: Maverick McNealy, Mackenzie Hughes, Brian Harman and Daniel Berger.
This week, the PGA Tour takes its annual trip to the Big Easy for a team event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans.
Rory McIlroy took a well-deserved week off after finally completing the career Grand Slam. This week is as good a spot as any to return in a team event with his good pal Shane Lowry (+350), as the close friends are the defending champions of this event.
Kurt Kitayama and Collin Morikawa (12-1), neighbors in Las Vegas, team up for the second consecutive year.
Thomas Detry and Robert MacIntyre (18-1) finished T-8th here last year.
J.T. Poston and Keith Mitchell (20-1), who finished T-2 in the Corales Puntacana last weekend, are both St. Simons Island, Ga., residents as are last week’s runner-up, Novak and Ben Griffin (22-1).
Taylor Moore and Wyndham Clark (22-1) have both hit the podium in New Orleans in recent years with different partners and are looking to do it together this year.
Other teams near the higher end of the odds board include Aaron Rai/Sahith Theegala (25-1), Billy Horschel, a two-time winner here, paired with Tom Hoge (28-1), and the Højgaard brothers (33-1).
Last week’s winner of the Corales Puntacana, Garrick Higgo, pairs with Ryan Fox (40-1).
Davis Riley and Nick Hardy (90-1) won this event two years ago over the Canadian duo of Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin (35-1).
The Event
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans has a history that dates to 1938 and has been played annually on the PGA Tour since 1958. Swiss insurance company Zurich took over as the tournament sponsor in 2005, and the Fore! Kids Foundation serves as the event organizer. In 2017, the Zurich Classic became a team event with 80 teams of two players, with 33 teams making the weekend cut. The event winners do not receive Masters invitations nor OWGR points but do earn 500 FedEx Cup points, two-year PGA Tour exemptions, plus invitations to the PGA Championship, Sentry Tournament of Champions and The Players Championship.
In the first round, the teams will compete in fourball (best ball), which sees each player play his own ball, with the teammate with the lowest score on each hole providing that team’s score per hole.
There’s a change for the second round with foursomes (alternate shot) the order of the day as each team member takes alternate shots with the same ball.
After the end of Friday’s action, there is a cut that sees the top 33 teams and ties make it to the weekend. The remaining teams once again play a round of fourball on Saturday before finishing with another round of foursomes, when one of the teams is declared the winner.
In the event of a tie at the end of Sunday’s action, a sudden-death playoff will be held with the two formats alternating after each hole until a winner is found.
The Field
Here are the 80 two-man teams for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans:
The Course
TPC Louisiana has hosted the Zurich Classic of New Orleans since 2005 (except 2006 when course renovations post-Hurricane Katrina forced a move back to English Turn). It is in Avondale, which is a 15-minute drive southwest of Bourbon Street. The track was designed by Pete Dye in 2004 and renovated by Chris Gray in 2012. It is a public course of 7,425 yards and plays as a par-72. The layout is defended by 106 bunkers (second most on tour) and five water hazards, which are in play on seven holes. Two days after the 2019 tournament, the greens were re-done with TifEagle Bermuda grass (changing from MiniVerde Bermuda) overseeded with Poa Trivialis, and the fairways (34.5-yard average width — 15th widest on tour) were transformed to Celebration Bermudagrass. The greens are 5,225 square feet on average and relatively average speed (12 on stimpmeter).
The rough is only two inches and fairly non-penal.
There is no elevation on this course, and it is the flattest layout on the PGA Tour.
Pete Dye is the designer, so there are a fair number of Dye courses every year on the PGA Tour schedule if you are looking for a course correlation. They include:
Austin Country Club – WGC Dell Match Play since 2016
Crooked Stick – 2012 and 2016 BMW Championship
Harbour Town – RBC Heritage
Ocean Course – Kiawah Island – 2012 PGA Championship
TPC River Highlands – The Travelers
TPC Sawgrass – The Players Championship
TPC Stadium, PGA West – The American Express since 2016
Whistling Straits – 2010 and 2015 PGA Championship
Other correlated courses are the other TPCs on the PGA Tour, including TPC Twin Cities and TPC Scottsdale along with Detroit Golf Club.
Zurich Classic of New Orleans Recent History/Winners
2024: Shane Lowry/Rory McIlroy (-25/263); 8-1*
2023: Nick Hardy/Davis Riley (-30/258); 40-1
2022: Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele (-29/259); 9-1
2021: Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith (-20/268); 12-1**
2020: Tournament cancelled (COVID-19)
2019: Ryan Palmer/Jon Rahm (-26/262); 16-1
2018: Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy (-22/266); 40-1
2017: Jonas Blixt/Cameron Smith (-27/261); 100-1***
Playoff win over Chad Ramey/Martin Trainer – *
Playoff win over Louis Oosthuizen/Charl Schwartzel – **
Playoff win over Scott Brown/Kevin Kisner – ***
Statistical Analysis
While this event is arguably the hardest to model due to the team format, we can examine some statistics that should give us an idea of who will fare well this week.
Strokes Gained: Approach — Total Combined (Last 24 rounds)
- Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry 40.8
- Collin Morikawa/Kurt Kitayama 21.5
- Ryan Gerard/Danny Walker 19.6
- Doug Ghim/Chan Kim 18.4
- Tom Hoge/Billy Horschel 18.3
- Jackson Suber/Pierceson Coody 15.2
- Brice Garnett/Sepp Straka 14.8
- Jhonattan Vegas/Kevin Yu 14.3
- Nate Lashley/Hayden Springer 13.7
- Keith Mitchell/J.T. Poston 11.5
Birdie Or Better Gained — Total Combined (Last 24 rounds)
- Jesper Svensson/Niklas Norgaard 31.2
- Ryan Gerard/Danny Walker 30.6
- Taylor Moore/Wyndham Clark 27.3
- Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry 25.3
- Jacob Bridgeman/Chandler Phillips 21.1
- Keith Mitchell/J.T. Poston 18.9
- Jake Knapp/Frankie Capan III 17.4
- Sam Ryder/Rico Hoey 13.5
- Joe Highsmith/Alejandro Tosti 12.6
- Garrick Higgo/Ryan Fox 12.3
Strokes Gained: Par-5s — Total Combined (Last 24 rounds)
- Jesper Svensson/Niklas Norgaard 25.2
- Rory McIlroy/Shane Lowry 21.1
- Andrew Novak/Ben Griffin 19.2
- Davis Riley/Nick Hardy 17.8
- Jeremy Paul/Yannik Paul 15.5
- Ryan Gerard/Danny Walker 15.2
- Taylor Moore/Wyndham Clark 14.5
- Jacob Bridgeman/Chandler Phillips 14.1
- Matt Fitzpatrick/Alex Fitzpatrick 13.7
- Thorbjorn Olesen/Matt Wallace 13.2
Strokes Gained: Putting — Total Combined (Last 24 rounds)
- Nico Echavarria/Max Greyserman 38.7
- Bud Cauley/Kevin Tway 28
- Chez Reavie/Brandt Snedeker 26.7
- Jake Knapp/Frankie Capan III 26.6
- Tom Hoge/Billy Horschel 20.7
- Jesper Svensson/Niklas Norgaard 19.8
- Jacob Bridgeman/Chandler Phillips 19.7
- Beau Hossler/Andrew Putnam 19
- Mason Andersen/Matt McCarty 17.7
- Justin Lower/Chad Ramey 14.5
Proximity Gained 200+ Yards — Total Combined (Last 24 rounds)
- Rikuya Hoshino/Kaito Onishi 32.04 (yards per round)
- Joel Dahmen/Harry Higgs 31.74
- Antoine Rozner/Kris Ventura 27.77
- Ryan Brehm/Mark Hubbard 23.60
- Thorbjorn Olesen/Matt Wallace 22.47
- Akshay Bhatia/Carson Young 22.25
- Charley Hoffman/Nick Watney 21.99
- Trace Crowe/Taylor Dickson 21.96
- Ryan Gerard/Danny Walker 20.98
- Joseph Bramlett/Alex Smalley 19.93
Selections
Billy Horschel/Tom Hoge (28-1, DraftKings)
Horschel is a two-time winner at TPC Louisiana, once individually and once in team competition. He also relishes a team competition, as evidenced by his great play in winning the TGL championship for his Atlanta Drive (Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Lucas Glover) team. Horschel is also motivated to make the Ryder Cup team for the first time later this year.
Hoge has finished no worse than 18th in any of his last four events and always stripes it with his irons.
Max Greyserman/Nico Echavarria (35-1, FanDuel)
This duo finished fourth here last year.
Echavarria has a win and two second places in the last six months, while Greyserman is a three-time runner-up over the last nine months.
They also rank as the top putting pair combined in this field.
Nick Taylor/Adam Hadwin (40-1, Bet Rivers)
Canadian duo Taylor and Hadwin were the runners-up here two years ago and finished T-10 last year.
Taylor already won for us at 115-1 this year at the Sony Open in Hawaii and is certainly motivated to help one of his best friends get back into the winner’s circle.
Ryan Gerard/Danny Walker (60-1, BetMGM)
Gerard and Walker are playing their first full seasons on the PGA Tour this year.
Gerard has made 10 of 11 cuts, including a runner-up three weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open, while Walker has made five of 10 and finished T-6 at The Players Championship.
Jeremy Paul/Yannik Paul (90-1, Circa Sports)
Identical twins from Germany, Jeremy and Yannik Paul, arrive at TPC Louisiana after producing their best individual performances of the season last week.
Jeremy finished T-2 at the Corales Puntacana, while Yannik finished T-3 at the Volvo China Open on the DP World Tour.
Any placement markets or matchups will be up Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks
