Daily Racing Form handicappers Ashley Mailloux and Mike Beer analyze a compact field of seven older fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 2 Azeri at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.
Saturday’s Azeri has a post time of 4:44 p.m. Central and a purse of $400,000. Both handicappers arrive at the same conclusion – this is Nitrogen’s race to lose – though they find enough intrigue in the rest of the field to warrant a closer look.
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The horse to beat: No. 2 Nitrogen
Nitrogen is the 4-5 morning-line favorite, and both Mailloux and Beer see no reason to oppose her. The 4-year-old filly trained by Mark Casse returned from a layoff in the Grade 3 Bayakoa at Oaklawn, stalked three wide, engaged in a duel, and kicked clear to win convincingly. Mailloux says Nitrogen may never have looked better physically, and Beer agrees she was dominant despite some characteristic stretch goofiness. Both point to her résumé – a Grade 1 winner on both turf and dirt, a Breeders’ Cup Distaff runner-up, and a horse who has overpowered every rival at this level. Nitrogen is the unanimous pick to win.
The second choice: No. 3 Majestic Oops
Both Mailloux and Beer slot Majestic Oops second. The 6-year-old mare trained by Dan Ward most recently sprinted to victory in the American Beauty at Oaklawn, a race where the pace set up perfectly for her. Stretching to 1 1/16 mile raises a question – Mailloux thinks the distance is at the limit of her range – but both are encouraged by her tactical versatility and her familiarity with this track, where she has won three times.
The rest of the field
No. 1 Perfect Shot, trained by Steve Asmussen, exits a win in the Houston Ladies Classic where she rallied from well back to get up in the final strides. Mailloux acknowledges it was a solid performance but notes the contested pace set her up perfectly. Beer calls it a good win while noting she was the longest price on the board and benefited from ideal setup – neither expects her to repeat against this field.
No. 4 Quietside was third in the Bayakoa behind Nitrogen last time – her third start since the Kentucky Oaks. Mailloux notes she had a good trip and simply wasn’t close to the winner. Beer saw nothing in the Bayakoa replay to suggest she can reverse the result here.
No. 5 Regaled, trained by Whit Beckman, has been off since a fourth-place finish in the Falls City at Churchill Downs in late November. Beer is a genuine fan, calling her a really good horse who ran a strong third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at big odds, but notes her deep closing style requires pace to come after. Mailloux agrees she can win a nice race but isn’t sure this is the spot.
No. 6 La Cara is Nitrogen’s Casse-trained stablemate and figures as the pacesetter based on Daily Racing Form’s TimeformUS Pace Projector. Both handicappers agree she needs the lead – ideally without a prolonged duel – a scenario complicated by No. 7 Standoutsensation drawing directly to her outside. La Cara’s return in the Houston Ladies Classic saw her weaken after dueling throughout. Beer includes her fourth in his picks but notes she’s dangerous if she gets loose on an uncontested lead.
No. 7 Standoutsensation, trained by Tom Amoss, won four in a row before narrowly losing the Houston Ladies Classic after dueling on a fast pace last time. Both handicappers respect her Oaklawn form but don’t see her turning topping Nitrogen. Mailloux includes her third, expecting an honest effort from on or near the pace.
The handicappers’ verdict
Ashley Mailloux’s picks
No. 2 Nitrogen
No. 3 Majestic Oops
No. 7 Standoutsensation
No. 5 Regaled
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 2 Nitrogen
No. 3 Majestic Oops
No. 5 Regaled
No. 6 La Cara
Both handicappers agree on Nitrogen on top and Majestic Oops second. From there, their sets of picks diverge – Mailloux goes to Standoutsensation in third while Beer prefers Regaled, a horse he calls a genuinely good mare who just needs things to fall her way.
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