Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze a field of seven 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the main track in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif.
Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes has a post time of 6:41 p.m. Eastern and a purse of $200,000, awarding 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 25 to second, 15 to third, 10 to fourth, and 5 to fifth.
Aragona and Beer split on the top pick – Aragona sides with longshot No. 3 Secured Freedom, while Beer goes to second choice No. 6 So Happy – and both agree the race hinges on how the pace plays out in a field with several horses looking to be forward early.
The favorite: No. 4 Brant
Brant, trained by Bob Baffert, enters as the morning-line favorite off a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Both handicappers are skeptical. Aragona notes Brant had every advantage at the Breeders’ Cup – a forward position and a favorable track bias – and still couldn’t hold off the winner. Beer points out he has run progressively slower as distances lengthened. Baffert has acknowledged the preparation for this race was a rush job. Neither handicapper includes him on top; both are willing to let him beat them.
Beer’s top pick: No. 6 So Happy
So Happy, trained by Mark Glatt with Mike Smith up, enters off a convincing win in the Grade 2 San Vicente. Beer is a fan of both his races – he won his maiden at 38-1 before winning the San Vicente after getting shuffled back early, making a move to get out of trouble, and chasing down the leader through the stretch. Beer believes his running style sets him up well for a trip here. The question is whether he handles the added distance going two turns for the first time. Beer is willing to find out.
Aragona’s top pick: No. 3 Secured Freedom
Secured Freedom, trained by Tim Yakteen, is Aragona’s pick to win. By Practical Joke – a sire associated with sprinting – this colt runs more like a stayer, with a long stride and a habit of galloping out strongly. Aragona argues that his Robert B. Lewis form is better than it looks: Secured Freedom was wide around the turns and lost ground when the field kicked on the final turn but finished well. Aragona believes the trip masked his ability and likes the added ground here. Beer is less convinced, seeing a horse that never got into contention when the real running started. At 8-1 on the morning line, Aragona is happy to take the price.
The rest of the field
No. 1 Flashy Fritz and No. 2 Start the Ride are both trained by Dan Blacker. Both handicappers suspect Flashy Fritz may be in the race primarily to ensure the field reaches six runners and preserve full Derby points. Start the Ride gets more respect – he’s already proven he’ll stay the distance after winning the California Cup Derby, and Aragona uses him third as a horse who could pick up pieces.
No. 5 Potente makes his two-turn debut for Baffert off a sharp gate-to-wire debut win. Beer liked the debut and sees pedigree to improve with distance and time, but this may be too big a spot too soon.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks:
No. 3 Secured Freedom
No. 6 So Happy
No. 2 Start the Ride
No. 4 Brant
Mike Beer’s picks:
No. 6 So Happy
No. 5 Potente
No. 4 Brant
No. 3 Secured Freedom
Aragona and Beer land on opposite sides of the So Happy versus Secured Freedom debate. Both are united in their skepticism of morning-line favorite Brant, and both will be watching closely how the Baffert horses break in a race that figures to be contested from the start.
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