VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke previews the Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025, including the entries, odds, and past performances of the field.
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The week started out with some bad news, as favorite Sovereignty spiked a fever and was scratched the next day. With one of the best Breeders’ Cup Classic fields we’ve ever seen, losing the favorite and a top-notch 3-year-old has the chance to linger into the weekend, but this is still an excellent field.
To be blatantly honest, Sovereignty’s scratch probably makes the race an even more interesting handicap, as it has gotten more wide-open with a 6/5 morning line favorite out of the picture. Of course we’d all rather have one of the sport’s best out there, but he should have a chance to run in this event next year. For now, we simply have to focus on who is in the field.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic will be Race 9 in your Saturday Del Mar program with post time expected to be 6:25 p.m. ET on November 1.
Breeders’ Cup Classic 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Fierceness | J. Velazquez | T. Pletcher | 5/2 |
| 2 | Baeza | H. Berrios | J. Shirreffs | 10-1 |
| 3 | Nevada Beach | M. Smith | B. Baffert | 20-1 |
| 4 | Contrary Thinking | F. Geroux | C. Brown | 50-1 |
| 5 | Forever Young | R. Sakai | Y. Yahagi | 7/2 |
| 6 | Sovereignty | J. Alvarado | W. Mott | SCR |
| 7 | Sierra Leone | F. Prat | C. Brown | 7/2 |
| 8 | Mindframe | I. Ortiz Jr. | T. Pletcher | 6-1 |
| 9 | Journalism | J. Ortiz | M. McCarthy | 5-1 |
| 10 | Antiquarian | L. Saez | T. Pletcher | 10-1 |
Contrary Thinking is the long shot and elder statesman for this group as the only 5-year-old in the field. We really have had some great crops of 3-year-olds the last two years. The purse for this race is $7 million, so you know it had to be a difficult decision for Bill Mott and the connections to err on the side of caution with Sovereignty, but he’s worth a lot in future races and stud fees, so they likely made the right call.
As you would expect with a 6/5 favorite punted from the field, we saw massive odds shifts down on everybody except Nevada Beach and Contrary Thinking.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. Fierceness (5/2; Velazquez/Pletcher): Seven-time winner Fierceness departs from the rail post in this 1 ¼-mile run for glory. The son of City of Light and Nonna Bella won last time out in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in his second career start at the track. He ran second to Sierra Leone in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He has six wins in 10 races on fast tracks and he’ll get one here with sunny weather in the forecast for San Diego and surrounding areas.
Johnny Velazquez has had every ride except for his maiden and the Champagne Stakes. That includes his career-worst 15th-place finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby when he struggled at the outset and had to be reined in. Velazquez’s sharp thinking has led to quite a career for this colt and his career-best 111 Beyer, a number he reached twice last year, but hasn’t been able to replicate, puts his top-end performance near the top of this class.
2. Baeza (10-1; Berrios/Shirreffs): Baeza did not fire at all in his December maiden at Del Mar almost a year ago, but the 3-year-old son of McKinzie and Street Sense has quietly put together an outstanding year with over $1.5 million in winnings. The only horses to beat Baeza this year are Sovereignty (3x), Journalism (3x), and Rodriguez. With the reins in Hector Berrios’ hands, Baeza has not finished worse than second.
He’s on the heels of a career-best 105 Beyer in the Pennsylvania Derby, which wasn’t the strongest of fields for a G1 race, but it was probably the right call for trainer John Shirreffs with the horse running for the first time in nearly two months.
3. Nevada Beach (20-1; Smith/Baffert): California might be Bob Baffert’s sandbox, and Mike Smith is one of his go-to riders, but Nevada Beach has a really big uphill climb to contend here. He’s actually never run at Del Mar, but has won three of his four races this year without a whole lot of fanfare. He’s won back-to-back races at 1 ⅛ and Smith was aboard for the last one, a very strong effort against Full Serrano.
That race produced a career-best 101 Beyer and was his first entry since the last week of June. Is it possible that he has another gear thanks to the long layoff and a little bit more maturity as a 3-year-old? The son of Omaha Beach and Morrow Cove clearly has no issues with distance. He just won a route race in his graded stakes debut with the Goodwood triumph at Santa Anita. He’s the double-digit sleeper to keep an eye on.
4. Contrary Thinking (50-1; Geroux/Brown): Chad Brown will send out Contrary Thinking to set the pace of this race and possibly open up a racing lane for stablemate Sierra Leone. The son of Into Mischief and Valadorna isn’t really out there for any other purpose, but Brown has gone to trusted and experienced rider Florent Geroux in place of Dylan Davis.
It seems like Geroux is out there to simply execute a plan. And if the horse can find a way to hit the board, that’s a bonus.
5. Forever Young (7/2; Sakai/Yahagi): The hardest horse to gauge in this field is Forever Young. Not because we are unaware of the talent. After all, he’s won $15.7 million in 12 races over the course of his career, including nine wins. He has two U.S. data points – a third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and a third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, in which he had a 109 Beyer.
This year has featured a really light workload for Forever Young, as he started with a massive cash in the Saudi Cup and then ran third in the Dubai World Cup about six weeks later. Before shipping to the States, trainer Yoshito Yahagi and the connections opted to send him over 1 ⅛ miles in Japan and he won pretty easily at a short number. Does he have one extra gear in him?
6. Sovereignty (SCR; Alvarado/Mott): Sovereignty was scratched the morning of Oct. 29 with a fever.
7. Sierra Leone (7/2; Prat/Brown): A shot at history here for Sierra Leone. Tiznow is the only two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Sierra Leone can become the second with a second straight win in this event. After racking up nearly $6 million earnings last year, it has been a pretty tame year for the son of Gun Runner and Heavenly Love.
He’s only had four starts, finishing third, second, first, and second, winning the Whitney at Saratoga for his best cash of the year. He was second to Antiquarian last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and second to Mindframe in the G1 Stephen Foster back in June. So, he’s been beaten by two of the runners in this race and neither one was named Sovereignty. There is no doubt that this is a great horse with a great rider in Flavien Prat and his stablemate (Contrary Thinking) will try to give him a blueprint to win right out of the starting gate.
Can he take advantage and make history?
8. Mindframe (6-1; I. Ortiz/Pletcher): Five-time winner Mindframe and regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will give the Breeders’ Cup Classic a try this year after not being able to compete last year. Mindframe won a maiden and an optional claiming to start the year before finishing second to Dornoch in the Belmont Stakes.
So far this year, Mindframe has won three of four races. Ortiz tumbled off of him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, or he could very well be 4-for-4, though it would have taken a really good trip to beat Antiquarian, who was good enough to beat Sierra Leone. He’ll need to better a career-best 105 Beyer in the Stephen Foster to win this, as that was barely enough to beat Sierra Leone, let alone best others like Fierceness and Forever Young here.
9. Journalism (5-1; J. Ortiz/McCarthy): If the Sovereignty news is the biggest story in this race, the second biggest is that Umberto Rispoli will not ride Journalism. Jose Ortiz gets the assignment instead, as Rispoli, who won the Preakness and was second in the other two Triple Crown legs, will not get the call. Ortiz is more of a household name with stronger mounts and a lot more wins to his name, but it sure is stunning to not see Rispoli’s name there.
Perhaps Michael McCarthy and the connections didn’t love Rispoli’s handling of Journalism in the Pacific Classic, as he took a very aggressive, and potentially dangerous, lane to take the horse from last up to second. With bigger fish to fry and bigger purses to chase for the son of Curlin and Mopotism, maybe that is the reason. Nobody publicly knows, but Ortiz now has the task of taking the slow-starting, deep closer to the winner’s circle.
10. Antiquarian (10-1; Saez/Pletcher): We’re all familiar with the concept of peaking at the right time. Antiquarian may be doing just that. He, too, has a rider change, as Luis Saez gets abroad in place of John Velazquez, who has been the regular jock. Velazquez is riding Pletcher’s bigger contender, at least on paper, in Fierceness. So, Saez gets this ride on a horse that hit triple digits for the first time in the Beyer department in the G2 Suburban at Saratoga.
The next time out, Antiquarian beat Sierra Leone with a career-best 108 Beyer. He’s run back-to-back races at a mile and a quarter, but this is his first start in over two months. He’s normally a stalker or a pace-presser, which is what made his Jockey Club Gold Cup win so impressive, as he got a bad break and was 10 lengths behind before a massive effort over the final couple of furlongs.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Predictions
In star-studded races like this, it is easy to make a case for nearly any horse. They’re all good by virtue of simply being in an event like this and all have major accomplishments throughout their careers. So, you’re looking for the little edges to be had. Personally, I like that Antiquarian seems to be improving, while others are either mostly performing to their baselines or haven’t been able to replicate some of their strongest efforts.
While he has the longer trip to the outside, distance is obviously not a factor for him. There’s also a pretty good case to be made that Saez is a rider upgrade over Velazquez, even without a previous ride on Antiquarian. The price is also nice for a horse whose most recent effort lines up well with the best performances of others.
I’ll take the shot with the 10 here, putting him over Sierra Leone, Forever Young, and Fierceness, whose rail draw is a challenge.
Prediction: 10-7-5-1
