Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Brad Free shares his overviews of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup races prior to the post draws.
The Breeders’ Cup returns to Del Mar in 2025 for the second straight year, and fourth time in nine years. A familiar setting does not make it any easier to find winners.
One of the most appealing features of the Breeders’ Cup is the high odds available on top horses. That includes Del Mar, where favorites have won 29% of BC races compared to the 32% win rate of BC favorites overall.
High prices are always offered – the median $2 win payoff in BC races at Del Mar is $14.20, and hard-to-find BC bombs at Del Mar include Bar of Gold, $135.40 winner of the 2017 Filly and Mare Sprint, and Marche Lorraine, $101.80 winner of 2021 Distaff.
The marquee Breeders’ Cup race is the $7 million Classic, which this year is coming up deep. The top three finishers from 2024 – Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young – will face 3-year-old Grade 1 winners Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, and Nevada Beach.
Breeders’ Cup winners expected to return this year include Rebel’s Romance (Turf), Straight No Chaser (Sprint), and Full Serrano (Dirt Mile). Citizen Bull won the Juvenile last year and will target the Dirt Mile along with 2023 Classic winner White Abarrio.
California-based runners surprised at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup. After a shutout in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, California runners Citizen Bull, Straight No Chaser, and Full Serrano won and there were near-misses by Iron Man Cal (Juvenile Turf) and Motorious (Turf Sprint). Johannes (Mile) also finished second.
Who are the stars this year? They can be found in Daily Racing Form past performances. Below are introductory capsules for the 14 Breeders’ Cup races, listed in preliminary race order. The two-day event begins with five races for juveniles on Friday, Oct. 31.
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Juvenile Turf Sprint (Friday – 2:45 p.m. PT)
Breeders’ Cup grass races are won most often by Europeans, and the Juvenile Turf Sprint is no exception. The last four Juvenile Turf Sprint winners were shippers from Europe, a group that this year includes True Love, Havana Anna, and Military Code.
Since the Juvenile Turf Sprint debuted in 2018, most winners have possessed speed. It is a sprint for 2-year-olds, after all. But 2024 winner Magnum Force rallied from far back over a course that changed. Every rails-down turf sprint at Del Mar last fall was won from the middle or back of the field, which was a change from the speed-friendly profile of previous autumn meets.
There is plenty of pace this year in the five-furlong Juvenile Turf Sprint. Schwarzenegger is fast, as are Lennilu, and Intricate Spirit. Juvenile Turf Sprint favorites are 2 for 7 overall. The last winning favorite was 2020 winner Golden Pal, who also was the last winner from the United States.
Juvenile Fillies (Friday – 3:25 p.m. PT)
Historically one of the most formful Breeders’ Cup races, the Juvenile Fillies has been won by the favorite 20 of 41 years, including the two most recent at Del Mar (Immersive, 2024; Echo Zulu, 2021). Both were undefeated two-time Grade 1 winners going in.
Early Juvenile Fillies favorite Explora has run well in all three starts, including the Grade 2 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita, which was her first route and first start without blinkers. Explora won the Oak Leaf with an 83 Beyer. Good enough. The last three Juvenile Fillies winners entered with career-high figs of 83, 75, and 81.
Tommy Jo is a 3-for-3 dual Grade 1 winner whose unimpressive “win” in the Alcibiades came via disqualification. Tommy Jo earned a 75 Beyer finishing second. She had the length of the lane to get past the pacesetter, but hung. Like mother, like daughter? Tommy Jo’s dam, Mother Mother, did not stay two turns.
Percy’s Bar wired the Alcibiades but was disqualified to second. Visually, the race fell short. Of course, a similar comment was made last year after Immersive won the Alcibiades and then followed by winning the Juvenile Fillies.
Fifteen Juvenile Fillies winners have run in the Grade 1 Frizette, more than any prep. This year’s nose winner of the Frizette was Iron Orchard. Toss out a Frizette winner at your own risk.
Bottle of Rouge won the seven-furlong Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante on Sept. 6, which was her last start. Her win was flattered when two-three finishers Explora and La Wally finished one-two next out in the Oak Leaf. The last Juvenile Fillies winner with a layoff similar to Bottle of Rouge was Tempera in 2001, when the Juvenile Fillies was a one-turn race at Belmont Park.
Juvenile Fillies Turf (Friday – 4:05 p.m. PT)
Two of the last three winners of the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf were European shippers, but the Juvenile Fillies Turf has a U.S. feel this year. The top contenders are North Americans, including stakes winner Time to Dream. Her troubled third in the Grade 2 Jessamine deserves video review.
Final Accord is 2 for 2 in sprints at Woodbine and Aqueduct. Ultimate Love is 3 for 3 after winning the Selima at Laurel Park. Ground Support wired the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at Aqueduct on an easy pace. New York-campaigned fillies have won six editions of the Juvenile Fillies Turf, more than any circuit.
The top Juvenile Fillies Turf candidate from Europe is Precise, who won back-to-back Group 1 races in Ireland and England. She has never raced around two turns, but no worries. The 2022 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Meditate and 2024 winner Lake Victoria had never raced around a turn before their two-turn Juvenile Fillies Turf wins. True Love, a Group 1 winner, is likely for the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Brave Deb won the Surfer Girl Stakes at Santa Anita with a 64 Beyer. Eight winners of the Surfer Girl have run in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, none hit the board. All three years the Breeders’ Cup was at Del Mar, the Juvenile Fillies Turf winner rallied from the middle or back (Rushing Fall, 2017; Pizza Bianca, 2021; Lake Victoria, 2024).
Five of the 17 Juvenile Fillies Turf winners made their last start in Europe, three came from Woodbine, two ran in the Jessamine at Keeneland, and six were from New York. Favorites blanked the first six years of the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Favorites have won 5 of 11 since.
Juvenile (Friday – 4:45 p.m. PT)
Ted Noffey enters the BC Juvenile as a fast, undefeated two-time Grade 1 winner. He earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Hopeful at Saratoga, a 97 winning the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his first try around two turns. With a forwardly-placed style, proven around two turns and with high figures, Ted Noffey’s attributes are conspicuous.
While Breeders’ Futurity winner East Avenue stumbled and finished ninth as the favorite in 2024, three of the last nine Breeders’ Futurity winners have succeeded in the Juvenile.
The most productive recent prep is the Grade 1, 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah at Santa Anita. Four of the last 10 American Pharoah winners have won the Juvenile, including the last two at Del Mar – Citizen Bull and Corniche.
Intrepido overcame a compromising trip to win the American Pharoah over runner-up Desert Gate. A maiden route winner at Del Mar, Intrepido won the American Pharoah despite traffic troubles. His 87 Beyer is high enough, and better yet when his trip is factored in.
Brant, 2 for 2, is one of a handful of Bob Baffert trainees aiming to the Juvenile. The colt has not started since his early September win in the Del Mar Futurity. Brant is fast (100 and 91 Beyers), but his ability to stay two turns is unknown. Baffert has won the Juvenile six times. His candidates are Brant, Desert Gate, and Litmus Test.
Favorites are 13 for 41 in the Juvenile, 1 for 3 in the Juvenile at Del Mar.
Juvenile Turf (Friday – 5:25 p.m. PT)
When it comes to the BC Juvenile Turf, there are shippers from Europe and there is everyone else. Twelve of the 18 Juvenile Turf winners made their most recent start in Europe, which does not include 2021 winner Modern Games, who ran for purse money only.
European trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Juvenile Turf seven times with 24 starters. As expected, he is well represented this year. Early Juvenile Turf favorites include O’Brien-trained Gstaad, runner-up in three successive Group 1 races. All three Juvenile Turf editions at Del Mar were won by European shippers (Line of Duty, 2017; Modern Games, 2021; and Henri Matisse, 2024).
California 2-year-old turf runners had minimal influence on the Juvenile Turf until last year, when Iron Man Cal missed by a neck. This year’s local hope is Hey Nay Nay, an undefeated front-runner/pace-presser. Favorites have won the last two Juvenile Turf editions. Juvenile Turf favorites overall are 4 for 18.
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After the five Breeders’ Cup juvenile races Friday, nine BC races for older horses will be run Saturday. The order of races is subject to change from the order below.
Filly and Mare Sprint (Saturday – Noon PT)
All three BC Filly and Mare Sprints at Del Mar were won by late-running longshots – Bar of Gold ($136.40) in 2017; Ce Ce ($14.40) in 2021; Soul of an Angel ($41.60) in 2024. Route-to-sprint Bar of Gold was tough to find, but Ce Ce and Soul of an Angel entered off decisive wins in graded stakes.
That is the beauty of the Breeders’ Cup – sharp horses slip through the cracks.
This year’s Filly and Mare Sprint field has plenty of speed. No one will get an easy lead, including Sweet Azteca, whose early rivals are likely to include Vahva and Tamara. The scenario bodes well for versatile early favorite Kopion, who can press or rally.
Late-runners win more than their share of seven-furlong races at Del Mar. Over the past four autumn meets, 26 races were run at seven furlongs: three were won by the pacesetter, nine by runners positioned second or third, and 14 from fourth or farther back. The profile benefits Kopion.
Kopion is unbeaten at seven furlongs, including two Grade 1s. In her most recent start in a Grade 1 route, she was compromised by strategy. She dropped too far back and rallied too late. Kopion, however, will be making her first start in 13 weeks. That would be a record by a Filly and Mare Sprint winner. Judy the Beauty won the 2014 Filly and Mare Sprint off an 11-week break.
Notwithstanding longshot winners at Del Mar, the Filly and Mare Sprint is recently predictable. Favorites have won four of the last six. Filly and Mare Sprint favorites overall are 7 for 18.
Turf Sprint (Saturday – 12:41 p.m. PT)
Few Breeders’ Cup races produce high-odds winners as often as the BC Turf Sprint. The parade continued at Del Mar in 2024, when Starlust, a 3-year-old filly from Europe, paid $69.20. She was the fifth female winner of the Turf Sprint and second winner who shipped from Europe. The median win payoff in the Turf Sprint is $22.40. Turf Sprint favorites are 5 for 17 overall.
Surprisingly, late-runners dominated turf sprints last fall with the turf rails down. All five winners rallied from the middle or back, including Starlust.
The first three Turf Sprint editions at Del Mar have been won by different types – late-runner Starlust, pacesetter Golden Pal, and Stormy Liberal from midpack.
The early favorites this year are the three-two finishers from last year – pace-pressing/front-running mare Ag Bullet and late-running gelding Motorious. Ag Bullet already beat males in the Grade 1 Jaipur this summer in New York. Motorious has four wins (one via disqualification) and a second from five turf sprints at Del Mar. Reef Runner, a late-running graded stakes winner, has crossed the wire first in all three starts since being gelded.
European shippers are increasingly effective, Starlust was the second Turf Sprint winner from Europe in the past five years. This year’s Europeans include Group 1 winner Arizona Blaze. California-based cross-country traveler Ag Bullet, a versatile pace-presser, is a legit early favorite. But with its history of upsets, the Turf Sprint is always a good race to take a stab at a price.
Sprint (Saturday – 1:21 p.m. PT)
Is early favorite Bentornato a cinch in the BC Sprint? Based on his runner-up finish in the Sprint last year and dazzling comeback last month, he looks formidable. Bentornato earned a 108 Beyer Speed Figure last out, highest in the field.
Bentornato is fast and versatile. He can set the pace, or press. His rivals include front-runner Straight No Chaser. Others with gas include Mullikin and Mad House, but the Sprint this year is not loaded with speed.
As for the racetrack, it plays fair. The past four autumn meets, six-furlong sprints at Del Mar produced 30 percent winners that led at every call, 32% that pressed from second or third, and 38% that rallied from fourth or farther back.
If front-runner/pace-presser Bentornato draws well, he could become the first favorite to win a BC Sprint at Del Mar. Roy H paid $11.80 in 2017; Aloha West, $24.60 in 2021; and Straight No Chaser, $14.20 last year. Overall, favorites are 9 for 41 in the BC Sprint.
Straight No Chaser disappointed in his odds-on third-place comeback. He might not be as sharp as last year when he won the BC Sprint. In his 2024 prep, Straight No Chaser crushed a Grade 2 with a 103 Beyer. In the same prep this year, he finished third with a 93.
The past 30 years, every BC Sprint winner had already earned a triple-digit Beyer. Based on that guideline, this year’s speed-figure toss-outs include Dr. Venkman, Patriot Spirit, and Mad House. None have earned a triple-digit Beyer.
Distaff (Saturday – 2:01 p.m. PT)
Seismic Beauty inherited the role of favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, partly based on superior ability and partly due to the defections of 2024 Distaff winner Thorpedo Anna and Grade 1 winner Cavalieri. Seismic Beauty might have defeated them anyway based on the 110 Beyer Speed Figure she earned winning the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar three months ago.
The fastest in the field on numbers, Seismic Beauty employs a no-holds-barred style. She is pure speed, which means she controls her own destiny. If she reproduces her most recent start, which was at Del Mar, she will lead gate to wire. Favorites are 18 for 41 in the Distaff.
Want to fade the favorite? Easy enough. Seismic Beauty will have not raced in 91 days. The longest layoff by a Distaff winner was 86 days in 2021 by Marche Lorraine. Seismic Beauty is trained by Baffert, whose 10 Distaff runners have produced one runner-up finish.
Gin Gin, the Grade 1 Spinster winner, could get first run. Nitrogen finished second to Gin Gin while compromised by a wide trip. Nitrogen is a 3-year-old, an age group that has won the Distaff 12 times, including Thorpedo Anna last year. Grade 1 winner Dorth Vader, who finished a nose behind Thorpedo Anna last out, will be coming off a 10-week layoff.
Turf (Saturday – 2:41 p.m. PT)
Europeans have a stranglehold on the BC Turf – 21 of the last 26 runnings were won by shippers from Europe. Six winners were from the United States, including a 2003 dead heat between the United States and Europe, and 2021 winner Yibir in his second U.S. start.
The Euro-friendly trend applies this year. The early Turf favorites are Group 1 winners from Europe, including 3-year-old filly Minnie Hauk, runner-up in the Arc de Triomphe. The field is expected to include Rebel’s Romance who won the race in 2024 at Del Mar and 2022 at Keeneland. If he is successful, Rebel’s Romance will become the first three-time Turf winner.
The last seven Turf winners were Grade 1 or Group 1 winners going in, a group that this year includes Goliath. Turf favorites blanked from 2010-17, but since then, favorites have won 4 of 7.
A potential upsetter is a 3-year-old gelding from Europe. Amiloc won his first five starts against modest company, then stepped into a Group 1 last out and finished a clear second. Progressive 3-year-olds are always eligible to continue improving in fall. Amiloc is a price play.
Classic (Saturday – 3:25 p.m. PT)
Prep races, who needs them? At least a half-dozen top candidates for the Breeders’ Cup Classic enter off layoffs of more than two months. None match Sovereignty, the early favorite who is unraced since he won the Grade 1 Travers on Aug. 23. That’s a 10-week gap.
The layoff is no big deal. Sovereignty is following the path of 2024 Classic winner Sierra Leone, who ran in the Travers and faced older in the Classic at Del Mar 10 weeks later. The longest layoff by a Classic winner was a 13-week break between starts by 2006 winner Invasor.
As for the track profile, Sierra Leone’s come-from-behind Classic win was atypical for Del Mar. A blistering 44.96-second half-mile benefited the late-runner. It was the exception to the rule. Most of the time, speed is required to win a 1 1/4-mile dirt race at Del Mar.
In the 11 years since Del Mar reinstalled dirt, 14 of the 17 dirt races at 1 1/4 miles were won by horses positioned in the top three. Barring a repeat of last year’s extreme pace, closers who face a challenging profile are Sovereignty, Sierra Leone, and Journalism.
Fierceness will enter the BC Classic with multiple attributes, including tactical speed and proven form at Del Mar. A front-runner/presser, Fierceness ran as well or better than Classic winner Sierra Leone last year. Fierceness crushed the Pacific Classic this summer.
Three-year-olds get a four-pound break and have won the BC Classic 14 times, including a 1-2-3 finish last year by Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young. The 3-year-old candidates this year include Grade 1 winners Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, and Nevada Beach. Favorites overall are 12 for 41 in the Classic.
Although final workouts, defections, and post positions will influence handicapping analyses, it appears Fierceness has a lot going for him. Baeza has trained exceptionally well this fall and could slip in under the radar.
Mile (Saturday – 4:05 p.m. PT)
A key question in the BC Mile: Is Kentucky-based Grade 1 winner Rhetorical good enough to upset European-based Group 1 winner Notable Speech? Shippers from Europe have won five of the last seven BC Miles, but Kentucky-based More Than Looks upset the imports last year after finishing second in the Coolmore Turf Mile, the same prep Rhetorical won this year.
Regarding pace, More Than Looks and Rhetorical are opposite and similar. More Than Looks was a closer who got a fast pace to run at and delivered a come-from-behind $15.80 upset. Rhetorical is a pace-presser whose style is beneficial in a BC Mile short on speed.
Except for Rhetorical, early favorites in the Mile are late-runners. It may be premature to suggest a slow pace before post positions are drawn, but indications are the BC Mile could come up light on speed. That would benefit Rhetorical, whose figures continue to ascend. He has never taken a step back and earned a 101 Beyer last out.
Notable Speech, third as the favorite in last year’s Mile, overcame a slow start last out to defeat a modest group in the Woodbine Mile. Is he as good as he was last year? The jury is out. Johannes, runner-up last year in the Mile, defeated a modest field in his comeback.
Sahlan is an improving 3-year-old who defeated older Group 1 company last out in France. BC Mile favorites overall are 14 for 41.
Dirt Mile (Saturday – 4:45 p.m. PT)
Favorites have won the BC Dirt Mile each year from 2020-23. Full Serrano popped at $28.80 last year at Del Mar. Full Serrano will try to become the third Dirt Mile repeat winner, following Goldencents in 2013-14 and Cody’s Wish in 2022-23.
Although speed is an asset on dirt, Del Mar plays fair at one mile. The past four autumn meets, 32% of dirt miles were won by the pacesetter, 37 percent by runners positioned two-three, and 31% from fourth position or farther back.
Full Serrano’s front-running/pace-pressing style is similar to the style employed by Nysos, Citizen Bull, and Patriot Spirit. The pace should be legitimate. Nysos and Full Serrano are versatile. Both can press or set the pace.
Del Mar is known as a horse-for-course track. All three Dirt Mile winners at Del Mar (Battle of Midway, 2017; favorite Life Is Good, 2021; and Full Serrano, 2024) previously ran well over the track. This year’s Dirt Mile candidates with Del Mar wins include Nysos, Full Serrano, Citizen Bull, and Dr. Venkman.
The status of Nysos is always uncertain. He scratched from the Pacific Classic this summer and from the San Felipe Stakes in his 3-year-old season. If he does start, he is a contender.
Grade 1 winners Mystik Dan and White Abarrio may have lost a step. Dr. Venkman and Chancer McPatrick seem best around one turn, though both have won routes. Three-year-olds have won the Dirt Mile three times in the last eight years. Three-year-old speedster Citizen Bull will try to wire the field. Full Serrano will be nipping at his heels.
Favorites lost the first seven Dirt Miles from 2007-13. Since then, Dirt Mile favorites have won 6 of 11.
Filly and Mare Turf (Saturday – 5:25 p.m. PT)
Europeans usually win the BC Filly and Mare Turf, a race that has generated numerous upsets. Seven of the last nine Filly and Mare Turf winners made their most recent start in England, France, or Japan. A favorite has won only one of the last 11 Filly and Mare Turf editions. Favorites are 6 for 26 overall.
The top European filly aiming to the Breeders’ Cup is Minnie Hauk, runner-up against males in the Arc de Triomphe. However, she is expected to start in the BC Turf. The top European imports aiming to the Filly and Mare Turf include Group 1 winners Gezora and Cinderella’s Dream.
The top older turf female in the United States is She Feels Pretty, a multiple Grade 1 winner with eight wins from 12 starts. Is she good enough to defeat the Euros? Last year’s Filly and Mare winner, Moira, finished second in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine. That is the same race She Feels Pretty won this year.
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