Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview a wide-open Kentucky Derby prep at Colonial Downs, the Virginia Derby.
A Derby qualifier with a wide-open complexion
The Virginia Derby, a $500,000 stakes for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, is Race 9 at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Va., with a post time of 5:10 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. The race awards 50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers, meaning the winner likely earns an automatic berth in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. A field of 10 goes to the gate, and Aragona and Beer split on their top selections – Beer will use No. 5 High Camp while Aragona goes to No. 6 Lockstocknpharoah – in a race where neither handicapper is fully convinced the favorite, No. 1 Buetane, is the standout his connections would hope.
The Favorite: Buetane
Buetane draws the rail under Flavien Prat for trainer Bob Baffert and figures to attract heavy support based on connections alone. His most recent start – a third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes – raised questions, and Aragona noted he is stretching out to a longer test for the first time, though the one-turn configuration at Colonial Downs could soften some stamina concerns. Daily Racing Form’s TimeformUS Pace Projector projects a fast pace, which could work in favor of horses with late kick. Beer acknowledged Buetane’s figures “fairly stand out against this field” but said he was not thrilled with the Southwest. Both handicappers include him in their sets of picks, but neither puts him on top.
The Challengers: Lockstocknpharoah and High Camp
Aragona’s top selection, Lockstocknpharoah, is trained by Thomas Drury Jr. and will be ridden by Eddie Morales. He has won both prior starts, but both came over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. This marks his first start on dirt. Aragona described his debut as “really good” despite a difficult trip and called his second start – a front-running mile win where he pulled clear in the stretch – genuinely impressive. Beer agreed the horse “absolutely smashed that field” last time and said outside of Buetane he is not sure who Lockstocknpharoah is supposed to fear. Both noted his pedigree – by American Pharoah – points to dirt, and Aragona added that pre-race workouts at Churchill Downs suggested he handled the surface well in the mornings.
Beer’s top selection, High Camp, is one of the lightly raced horses stepping up to stakes company for the first time. Trained by Will Walden and ridden by John Velazquez, he has two career starts – both at Gulfstream Park, both on dirt – and both impressed. In his maiden win going seven furlongs, he showed the poise to wait behind horses when others made premature moves on the far turn, then tipped out at the top of the stretch and finished strongly. Beer noted the finish was “probably the best part of the race” and said the pedigree supports the added distance. Aragona agreed, adding that High Camp handled rail pressure in his debut and responded once he got clear. High Camp appears on both sets of picks.
The Wild Card: Incredibolt
No. 7 Incredibolt, trained by Riley Mott and ridden by Jaime Torres, is Aragona’s second selection. He looked like a progressive 2-year-old, winning a maiden and the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs, but was soundly beaten when finishing last in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park in his 3-year-old debut. Aragona said he liked the horse last year but acknowledged the fields from that fall campaign “haven’t exactly aged well.” Beer was less convinced, noting the horse “was just bad” in the Holy Bull and questioning whether prior victories came with all the best of it. A sharp form reversal is needed.
No. 9 Ocelli, trained by Whit Beckman and ridden by J.D. Ramos, is Beer’s fourth selection. Still a maiden, he exits the Sam F. Davis at Tampa, where he raced three to four wide before flattening out. Beer said he is surprised connections are pressing him back into another prep while he remains winless.
The Handicappers’ Verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 6 Lockstocknpharoah
No. 7 Incredibolt
No. 5 High Camp
No. 1 Buetane
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 5 High Camp
No. 7 Lockstocknpharoah
No. 1 Buetane
No. 9 Ocelli
For more insights from the guys, check out this video preview:
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