Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze an allowance/optional claimer at a mile on the turf for older horses at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
Friday’s featured race is Race 8 at Fair Grounds – a mile turf allowance/optional claimer with a post time of 4:15 p.m. Central and a purse of $58,000. The analysts are split at the top, with Aragona landing on a horse making an intriguing distance turnback and Beer going with a talented but unpredictable layoff runner. Both have similar opinions of No. 5 Higgins Boat at 5-2 – the morning line is the track’s prediction of where the final odds will settle, not a fixed price – but neither has him on top.
Mike Beer’s top pick: Neat (10-1 morning line)
Beer’s pick to win is No. 3 Neat. Beer is direct about the risk: “If Neat comes back off this layoff and runs anything like his A race, he will beat these horses.” The concern is that Neat is, in Beer’s words, “not a kind horse at all” and “a real handful” to ride – and Isaac Castillo, who gets the mount, has never been aboard him before. Beer acknowledges that handicapping the rider matters with this horse in a way it usually doesn’t for him. Aragona adds that Neat started working for this comeback as far back as November, logging 15 workouts since then – a volume he views as a potential caution flag when trainers need that much foundation work to get a horse to the gate.
David Aragona’s top pick: Goldeneye (4-1 morning line)
Aragona’s pick to win is No. 8 Goldeneye, and his case centers on versatility. The horse has concentrated on marathon distances recently, but Aragona notes he was “just fine” going conventional route distances early in his career and points to two wins for trainer Kenny McPeek last summer – at Colonial Downs and Saratoga – where Goldeneye “unleashed some stretch finishes” at 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles. Aragona also flags that if you draw a line through Goldeneye’s stakes attempts, he has won his last four allowance races in a row, all with Lasix. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides.
The morning-line favorite: Higgins Boat (5-2)
On Higgins Boat, both analysts respect the form – two wins over this turf course – but see vulnerability. Beer notes the mile is his best distance, and he has tactical speed working in his favor but raises a tactical concern: Jose Ortiz has not put Higgins Boat on the lead in either of his last two races despite the opportunity, preferring to stalk. Beer says that approach “could be a mistake” in this spot if a speed horse steals it. Aragona agrees the field is tougher than the spots Higgins Boat has been winning in and questions whether he can “respond if one of these older graded stakes horses gets back to their very best form.”
Rest of the field
No. 2 West Hollywood, Brad Cox’s returning graded stakes winner, drew brief interest from Aragona – he briefly had the horse on top during his initial handicapping – but both analysts cooled after noting another extended layoff and 15 workouts since November. Beer says he is “not sold on this horse yet.”
Fair Grounds Race 8 picks and verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 8 Goldeneye
No. 3 Neat
No. 5 Higgins Boat
No. 2 West Hollywood
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 3 Neat
No. 5 Higgins Boat
No. 9 Chasing Liberty
No. 8 Goldeneye
Both analysts agree Neat and Goldeneye are the horses to beat – Beer putting Neat on top, Aragona reversing that order – with the morning-line favorite Higgins Boat among their selections.
Listen for more insights, as David and Mike break down this race:
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