Daily Racing Form handicappers Ashley Mailloux and Mike Beer preview a six-furlong allowance/optional claimer at Turfway Park in Florence, Ky.
Turfway Park wraps up its meet with only a couple of race days remaining, and Wednesday’s Race 9 captures what has defined this closing stretch – a field of capable horses who have been circling the same level for a while, none of them quite putting it all together. The $104,000 allowance/optional claimer over six furlongs on the all-weather surface goes off at 9:55 p.m. Eastern.
“Most of these horses have been sort of competing at the same condition for a while now,” Beer says. “We’ll see which one of them has finally found the right spot.”
The two analysts land on different top picks – Mailloux goes with No. 5 Live High Live Low and Beer goes with the 5-2 morning-line favorite, No. 1 The Great Oz.
The Favorite
No. 1 The Great Oz has won his last two races wire to wire, and Beer believes the move back to a six-furlong sprint after a mile race plays directly to his strengths. Trained by Joe Sharp and ridden by Rafael Hernandez, the 8-year-old gelding drew the rail, and Beer says his tactical speed makes that a real advantage: He does not need the lead to win, just a good position. “He doesn’t need the lead to be effective. He can get the right trip in this race,” Beer says. Mailloux slots The Great Oz second in her sequence – she agrees the cutback helps – but both analysts flag price as a limiting factor if he goes off at or near his 5-2 morning line.
The Contenders
Mailloux’s pick to win is No. 5 Live High Live Low, a 5-year-old gelding trained by George Weaver at 8-1 on the morning line. This is his second start off a short freshening, and Mailloux thinks he is more forward than his previous race showed. Beer, who backed the horse in that effort, also includes him – third in his sequence – and points out that the horse who won that last race simply cleared off early and never gave anyone else a chance. “I think he fits really, really well in this field if he can get the right trip,” Beer says. Victor Carrasco has the call.
Beer makes room for a longshot that the numbers alone do not explain. No. 4 Tiger’s Legacy is 15-1 on the morning line for trainer Chris Davis, and Beer traces his interest back to a race against Simcoe – a rival who has since moved on to bigger things in Canada. In that race, Tiger’s Legacy got into traffic, clipped heels on the backstretch, and still ran creditably coming wide into the stretch. “That’s an underrated performance,” Beer says. A lengthy layoff is the main concern, but Beer says if the horse shows up ready, his prior form on this surface was genuinely good. Vincent Cheminaud rides.
No. 3 Mischievous Rogue, trained by Brittany Vanden Berg and ridden by Chris Emigh at 6-1, gives Mailloux a third option built on a class angle. The 8-year-old gelding has been competing against tougher fields than most of this group and, while his closing running style does not set up perfectly for every pace scenario, Beer identifies the subtle class drop as meaningful: “He’s been running against way better horses and he’s actually been running fine. He’s a pretty dangerous horse in here.”
No. 8 Swill closes out both analysts’ picks at 7-2 – the second choice on the morning line. Running first off the claim for trainer Eric Foster, he turned in a strong effort two races back but could not handle the pace pressure in his most recent start, according to Beer. Fernando De La Cruz rides.
The Handicappers’ Verdict
Ashley Mailloux’s picks
No. 5 Live High Live Low
No. 1 The Great Oz
No. 3 Mischievous Rogue
No. 8 Swill
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 1 The Great Oz
No. 4 Tiger’s Legacy
No. 5 Live High Live Low
No. 8 Swill
Mailloux tops with No. 5 Live High Live Low and Beer with No. 1 The Great Oz; they share three horses in common – The Great Oz, Live High Live Low, and Swill – differing only on Beer’s inclusion of the 15-1 Tiger’s Legacy against Mailloux’s class-dropper Mischievous Rogue.
Watch for more thoughts on this race from Ashley and Mike:
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